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View Poll Results: What do you think is happening with housing
Housing is in a slump 96 88.07%
Housing is staying the same 8 7.34%
Housing is still going up 5 4.59%
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:14 PM   #41
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In Boulder County, CO, single family home prices have either gone down or up depending on the town. Over the past year, through 1/31/08, the sales prices in the suburban community of Louisville near Boulder are up 7%. Boulder is up 2.5%. Condos in Boulder are up 5.8% over the same period. But that statistic is skewed because there is a lot of new (expensive) construction. The old stuff is losing value. Denver is a whole other story.
http://www.baraonline.com/news/stats...ary08stats.pdf
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:35 PM   #42
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:36 PM   #43
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My mom's house bought in 1964 at $24k would be about $240k now. That's 5.34%. Older house in suburban RI in a v. good area esp. for schools. If someone told me they'd pay twice that.. yeah, I'd be laughing (all the way to the bank, if the check didn't bounce).

nice simple calculator
Calculators - Rate of Return

According to this, Caroline.. $20k on 1/1/65 ending at $320k today is 6.62% annualized.

To get an annualized return of 9.93%:
your parents' house would have to sell for $1.2 million today.
Don't think that's gonna happen (but lucky you if it did!).

p.s. this is just price appreciation, so not counting maintenance and prop. taxes, or selling costs, interest costs, etc.
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Old 03-18-2008, 04:19 PM   #44
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The Big Picture | Housing: US vs Japan


Ratio of OFHEO house price index to personal consumption expenditures on rent
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Old 03-18-2008, 06:11 PM   #45
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No doubt housing is in a slump.

Haven't kept up with local housing prices or sales. There are some houses in my subdivision that been on the market for quite a while. But, there is still plenty of building going on in town, including some pretty big expensive places.
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Old 03-18-2008, 06:29 PM   #46
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No doubt housing is in a slump.

Haven't kept up with local housing prices or sales.
? :confused: ?


4% Appreciation my $*ss
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Old 03-18-2008, 10:47 PM   #47
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I have been following comparables of the place that I sold in Hawaii in 2006. (Sold because the place appreciate way too fast, and I was concerned that one day the bubble would burst). Doesn't look like it has burst in Hawaii. Comparables to mine have continue to appreciate (at a much lower level than the previous 5 years). So I'm thinking that if that's any indication of the Hawaiian market, then it must not be too bad.
Meanwhile in Colorado....I was told today there are brand new homes that have been sitting for 2 years waiting to be sold. Those house have dropped by like 40-60k in some cases. I think it was way overbuilt here and will take a while to get caught up. Too many houses, not enough people or money now. I've never seen so many 3 car garages in my life. I never saw a 3 car garage until I was grown and a 2 car garage was for people who were "well off".......
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Old 03-18-2008, 10:52 PM   #48
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My old house in MI that was purchased for $80K back in 1996/97 is currently on the market for .......... $39,900!!!!!!!! At least a third of the homes in this suburb (1104 total properties listed!) are on market for less than $60K...foreclosures and auctions no doubt. Definitely a bit of a slump there.
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Old 03-18-2008, 11:38 PM   #49
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Old 03-18-2008, 11:46 PM   #50
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It's hard to tell what is going on in Silicon Valley. There seems to be a lot of contrary indicators and it seems to be highly localized:

- Sales are way down
- Prices in good areas with good schools seem to be holding steady.
- Prices in not so good areas seem to be going down.
- According to Zillow my house has gone up $80k in the last year. But the sales price of a single recent "comp" seems to be driving that so I don't have a lot of confidence in it.

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Old 03-19-2008, 06:17 AM   #51
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According to the Arizona Republic, my zip code and a few others had housing flat to plus 5% in 2007. Other areas around Phoenix were down.
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Old 03-19-2008, 08:50 AM   #52
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I just checked the address on Zillow of a friend's residence in San Diego. They paid $468k in 2003. They listed the place in 2007, had it on for 6 months and only got one offer - $505k which they turned down as it wasn't enough. However, when I check on Zillow it tells me their place is worth $576k. They are thinking of relisting in 2008, however they do not believe they will now get the $505k that they were previously listed, they think they will be lucky to get much above their purchase price.
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Old 03-19-2008, 09:13 AM   #53
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Zillow - by design - is a rearview mirror. When past sales are high the zestimate will be high as well. To sell in a down market, one needs to set the price below the trend. Otherwise, if you're behind the trend (too high), you'll be sliding down until it bottoms. I suspect they'll wish they took the 505k.

Just dropped the price of 2 lake view condos 15k each (30k off the duplex price). After 4 months, only 5 showings ... this is not good. Trying to get ahead of the slide.
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Old 03-19-2008, 08:27 PM   #54
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Zillow - by design - is a rearview mirror. .
Why do you say 'by design"? Just curious.
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Old 03-19-2008, 09:18 PM   #55
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To sell in a down market, one needs to set the price below the trend...Trying to get ahead of the slide.
that was my thinking when i first put the inherited house up for sale. i kept mine priced to compete well with houses in areas lesser valued.

but turns out they didn't sell either so that trick did nothing. from how it seemed so many other houses were following my lead-weighted lead down, maybe all i did was help bring down the entire damned town as other houses raced to beat me to the bottom. i haven't noticed many price cuts in the past few months but also sales are far & few between.

so, screw it. i've repriced to still be the best price in my area but no longer the best price in the lesser areas. there is currently a 32-month supply of houses at my price range throughout that county. i've got a for rent sign on the property and am receiving quite a few calls though no takers yet.
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Old 03-20-2008, 08:01 AM   #56
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Why do you say 'by design"? Just curious.

Zillow uses past sales data to compute current sales prices. It does not account - well - for market direction. So in a downward market Zillow is artificially high. In an upward trend, artifically low.

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but turns out they didn't sell either so that trick did nothing.
Well, one thing for sure, it wouldn't have sold at a higher price either.
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Guess we were lucky
Old 03-20-2008, 10:21 PM   #57
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Guess we were lucky

We bought 1550 sq ft house in SF east bay in 1997 for $215,000. We sold out in Dec 2006 for $660,000. Purchased our ER home for $258,000. 1850 sq ft with mountain view.

Considering what happened to us in Houston in the 80's and 90's, we consider ourselves lucky!

Wahoo! It finally worked for us.
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Old 03-20-2008, 10:23 PM   #58
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Wahoo! It finally worked for us.
I'm very happy for you.
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Old 03-20-2008, 10:46 PM   #59
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We bought 1550 sq ft house in SF east bay in 1997 for $215,000. We sold out in Dec 2006 for $660,000.
WOW 9 years of over 13% annual appreciation.


4% Appreciation my *ss
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Old 03-21-2008, 02:24 AM   #60
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Honobob, calc link above shows that example as 12.15% but let's not quibble. I don't know exactly what you are smoking, pumping, or whatever.. but using an example of a person who got in at a good deal and came out at the top is not instructive or indicative of long term trends or reasonable valuations. It's speculation (not that Kougar was speculating). Ya know, maybe salaries in SF can support such prices indefinitely (but I doubt it). Maybe houses in Hawaii are always going to attract moneyed buyers (of that I have little doubt).

Maybe whoever bought from Kougar has $200k-$300k in household income to sustain a 1500sf house. For how long? What will be instructive is what Kougar's buyers eventually sell it for down the road. The rest of us live in the real world that follows certain laws of gravity.
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