Real Estate - do we still have holdouts?

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CuppaJoe Spring, 1993 at the watercooler: A secretary was crying in her coffee because 1) the value of the Bay Area house she bought in 1991, or was it 1992, had gone down; and 2) her job had changed from full to part time.

So now she has a great paying part-time job and the opportunity to get a great paying FULL-time job to quickly pay down the mortgage so she can sleep well...............or, dude, she was totally into your rent controlled apartment. Ok, maybe just you. Tell us more.


Waitaminnit, the 1992 drop was 9% max in SF. I'm thinking cuppaJoe got a warmup!

[CuppaJoe]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob So now she has a great paying part-time job and the opportunity to get a great paying FULL-time job to quickly pay down the mortgage so she can sleep well...............or, dude, she was totally into your rent controlled apartment. Ok, maybe just you. Tell us more. ....

You don't want to go there.



Warning....




She did get a full time j*b within a month. Fast forward a couple of years. There we were at the company X-mas lunch, a secretary at the other end of the table was sending back a bad martini (I'd never seen that before!). I was seated next to first secretrary's ex-boss who, in passing, mentioned his late secretary. I hadn't heard, what happened: alcohol-related cirrhosis.
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I see the Chronicle is reporting Bay Area housing sales were down March, a record.
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I imagine we could tick off a list of differences between first secretary's scenario and those today (anywhere in the county) who find that they suddenly have much less income and no equity to draw on from their house.

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CuppaJoe ----- I see the Chronicle is reporting Bay Area housing sales were down March, a record. ----- I imagine we could tick off a list of differences between first secretary's scenario and those today (anywhere in the county) who find that they suddenly have much less income and no equity to draw on from their house.

CuppaJoe, My channel 7 ABC news just reported SF sales prices UP!

OK sales 20% down, median price up .3%. I will not slit my wrist.

I have met the enemy and it is US! BTDT, dip, dippty then Wooooosh, to the Moon! I don't understand buying something and then complaining that I can't use it to pay for what I'm buying or for something else. I understand the concept of leverage but no matter what you are buying a payment. If you can't afford it you should not be in the market.

[CuppaJoe]

This question is for HonoDog. Back in the dot com bust, there was a town in Colorado where a company or two closed so suddenly that when the people bugged out, they left their dogs tied up in the yard; the SPCA went around rescuing them. HonoDog, do you think this sort of thing is currently happening anywhere in the country? If so, how do you feel about it? Maybe your owner can look up the stats, are more dogs being put to sleep because of a housing downturn? Does that possibility bother you or would you just jump up and down and wag your tail with glee because maybe it's not happening in Frisco or Hono?

[Khan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CuppaJoe This question is for HonoDog. Back in the dot com bust, there was a town in Colorado where a company or two closed so suddenly that when the people bugged out, they left their dogs tied up in the yard; the SPCA went around rescuing them. HonoDog, do you think this sort of thing is currently happening anywhere in the country? If so, how do you feel about it? Maybe your owner can look up the stats, are more dogs being put to sleep because of a housing downturn? Does that possibility bother you or would you just jump up and down and wag your tail with glee because maybe it's not happening in Frisco or Hono?

Locally (Dayton Ohio Area) there have been TV and Newspaper reports of repo/clean up folks rescuing cats and dogs and horses left to starve. The $%^& don't even have the decency to dump them at a shelter.

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob Microsoft? Foundry Square? Can't be more than one at those prices unless you're making it up. I happen to know the whole story to that situation. Ask if you're interested in the whole truth.

I guess you don't know everything... I did all the calculation for the reserve requirements... and this only covers half of the building... the other half is being 'used', so no reserve...

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Khan Locally (Dayton Ohio Area) there have been TV and Newspaper reports of repo/clean up folks rescuing cats and dogs and horses left to starve. The $%^& don't even have the decency to dump them at a shelter.

Same here in Houston... animals just left at their locations....

[Texas Proud]

Hono...

if everything is so hunky dory... then why has there been $200 billion write off even before this quarters earnings announcements come out...

And people think it can go to a LOT more later.... these banks and S&Ls would not be writing off so much and potentially failing IF things were going like YOU keep saying.... sorry...

And I did give you some information on foreclosures... up 4X from last year...(but.. maybe I put it in another thread...)...

I keep watching houses on the market keep 'reducing' their asking price and NOT selling... I am looking at buying a house at about $40K less than it was first listed... but it is now being held up in bankruptcy court... but I can wait...

[tryan]

Yeah, the sheriff/constable won't move perishable goods. This includes: pets, plants, and food.

They don't store well.

[CuppaJoe]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CuppaJoe This question is for HonoDog. Back in the dot com bust, there was a town in Colorado where a company or two closed so suddenly that when the people bugged out, they left their dogs tied up in the yard; the SPCA went around rescuing them. HonoDog, do you think this sort of thing is currently happening anywhere in the country? If so, how do you feel about it? Maybe your owner can look up the stats, are more dogs being put to sleep because of a housing downturn? Does that possibility bother you or would you just jump up and down and wag your tail with glee because maybe it's not happening in Frisco or Hono?

I would remove this post if I could but apparently it's too late as another poster has already copied it. I apologize for any offence. Frankly, I went in this direction as retaliation for a comment about my apartment which "gets me where I live." I just wanted HonoBob to stop gloating about a subject that is painful to so many others on this board; others who can see the pain of a real estate downturn up close and personal.

I've read enough of Honobob's posts to know that "where he lives" has more to do with HonoDog than real estate. I knew he loves his dog. Keep in mind that other dogs that are deeply loved are being separated from their owners. My cat is so bonded on me that I would dread that happening to her.

[Abreutime]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob I have met the enemy and it is US! BTDT, dip, dippty then Wooooosh, to the Moon! I don't understand buying something and then complaining that I can't use it to pay for what I'm buying or for something else. I understand the concept of leverage but no matter what you are buying a payment. If you can't afford it you should not be in the market.

So, you are saying that one's income affects the price of the house one can afford? Given stricter lending requirements, would this mean there are limits on appreciation, subject to income gains?

It's a yes/no.

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abreutime So, you are saying that one's income affects the price of the house one can afford? Given stricter lending requirements, would this mean there are limits on appreciation, subject to income gains? It's a yes/no.

No. Someone that has a large down payment, say from equity in a prior propertys appreciation can buy a house many times their income. Ask all the people in Oregon and Washington that saw California retirees come in as equity immigrants paying cash for homes driving prices up above their median incomes.

The garbageman on my street can go pretty much anywhere in the country and buy a nice $600,000 replacement home and I think he tops out at about $60K a year. The person in a $500,000 NBHD will probably buy his house using their equity and their $40,000 job to make up the difference.

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texas Proud I guess you don't know everything... I did all the calculation for the reserve requirements... and this only covers half of the building... the other half is being 'used', so no reserve...

So what building is it? My research shows rents in Austin and D-FW in the $16-26 range. I'd like to meet the guy that negotiated the $85 rents.


Austin
The average annual rent rate in Capitol Tower is $25 per square foot, according to research from Oxford Commercial. That's on par with the average rental rate across all building classes in the CBD.


D-FW
Asking rents are on track to finish the year at $19.42 a square foot, while effective rents will climb to $16.45 a square foot, annual gains of 4.6 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

[CuppaJoe]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob CuppaJoe, My channel 7 ABC news just reported SF sales prices UP! OK sales 20% down, median price up .3%. I will not slit my wrist. ....

Of course the up .3% number is a typo, the actual number is up .4%. OK, Honobob, I'll take this as an attempt to show an exception to the rule, the idea that OP contents there is a real estate correction going on. That .4 number is for San Francisco County only. But IMO you need to look at the nine Bay Area counties as a whole which is down 20.4%. Especially interesting are Alameda County (down 20.7%) and Contra Costa County (down 33.4%). I'm a little puzzled by Santa Clara County (Silicon Valley) which is down (only?) 9.3%, could be the "Google effect," without which it might be down more? There is an interesting article in today's S.F. Chronicle called "Housing Market Muddle" with the complete chart--I don't see it on-line yet." The 19 other numbers on the chart are all down. Will be interesting to see the April numbers as this is the start of the season.

Let me have a little fun here a speculate why S.F. County is up a whopping .4%. The paper says there were fewer foreclosures there and I might also guess the numbers might to skewed by a couple of, say, $40,000,000 properties.

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob So what building is it? My research shows rents in Austin and D-FW in the $16-26 range. I'd like to meet the guy that negotiated the $85 rents. Austin The average annual rent rate in Capitol Tower is $25 per square foot, according to research from Oxford Commercial. That's on par with the average rental rate across all building classes in the CBD. D-FW Asking rents are on track to finish the year at $19.42 a square foot, while effective rents will climb to $16.45 a square foot, annual gains of 4.6 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

I think I said earlier.... San Francisco.... I handled all the buildings in Western US....


Well.. checked and I did not say where it was located... sorry...


Another edit.... we did have reserves on some DFW buildings with our rents in the $30 to $35 range and had to sublet in the $17 to $20 range... just not even close to the SF market..

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texas Proud Just as an FYI... my company had to write off $125 mill on a building they rented at the high of the comm market at $85 per foot and could not sublet even at $20....

I'm right aren't I, Foundry Square? But the full story is that after Microsoft bought out their lease for some $45-50+ million (seems like it may have been as high as $95,000,000) the developer still has the buildings, the tens of millions from MS AND the market took a pretty quick upswing and fully leased FS I, II, III, and are completing IV. Owners did real well, renters not so much.

But then I'm still quessing because all your claims are unsupported by any factual evidence or based on the difference between asking price and not yet sold price. Hard to make any determination from that.

Office Glut / Millions of square feet of commercial real estate are set to open in a city that's already facing 20 percent vacancy rates

OK, my second guess would be the Gap and I know some of you guys are there in Texas but even the new HDQRs on the Embarcadero did not get $80 rents.

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob I'm right aren't I, Foundry Square? But the full story is that after Microsoft bought out their lease for some $45-50+ million (seems like it may have been as high as $95,000,000) the developer still has the buildings, the tens of millions from MS AND the market took a pretty quick upswing and fully leased FS I, II, III, and are completing IV. Owners did real well, renters not so much. But then I'm still quessing because all your claims are unsupported by any factual evidence or based on the difference between asking price and not yet sold price. Hard to make any determination from that. Office Glut / Millions of square feet of commercial real estate are set to open in a city that's already facing 20 percent vacancy rates OK, my second guess would be the Gap and I know some of you guys are there in Texas but even the new HDQRs on the Embarcadero did not get $80 rents.

Wrong on both counts... and sorry, can't say since it was my former employer... but you can disbelieve all you wish, I know what I booked for the reserves...

Also.. remember it does matter how long a lease you have to get the reserve amount...

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texas Proud Wrong on both counts... and sorry, can't say since it was my former employer... but you can disbelieve all you wish, I know what I booked for the reserves...

FORMER employer? I was only asking for a building address or a lessee's name. If you were familiar with the commercial real estate market you would know that this is NOT secret information and although exact details may not be published there is no shortage of brokers who pubicly value their estimate of the deal. I'm not asking for the CEO's mistresses name or the CFO's SS#.

It seems like this is another case of where the OP wants to make a claim and when challenged can only reply with attacks or stories of some cousins, brother-in-law, hairdressers babysitter's story.

Sure, I believe you Texas.

The national median for single-family homes during that same time was $206,200 -- down 3 percent from the beginning of the year. Mountain out of a mole hill!

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob FORMER employer? I was only asking for a building address or a lessee's name. If you were familiar with the commercial real estate market you would know that this is NOT secret information and although exact details may not be published there is no shortage of brokers who pubicly value their estimate of the deal. I'm not asking for the CEO's mistresses name or the CFO's SS#. It seems like this is another case of where the OP wants to make a claim and when challenged can only reply with attacks or stories of some cousins, brother-in-law, hairdressers babysitter's story. Sure, I believe you Texas. The national median for single-family homes during that same time was $206,200 -- down 3 percent from the beginning of the year. Mountain out of a mole hill!

if it is all public information... the why are you wrong?? you only give two recent examples.... one is you are in the wrong time frame... go back before the dot com bust... maybe you will figure it out... also, the company is still in the building... I did mention that part... so they did not buy out their lease..

And it is something internal to the company... I have never seen anything published to the public.... so I keep my mouth shut... but maybe if you figure it out from public info.... well.. that is great...

But again.. you are right and I am wrong... so be it...

[kumquat]

Having read (God knows why) this thread, can it be summed up by 'all real estate is local'?