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View Poll Results: What do you think is happening with housing
Housing is in a slump 96 88.07%
Housing is staying the same 8 7.34%
Housing is still going up 5 4.59%
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Real Estate - do we still have holdouts?
Old 02-26-2008, 01:01 AM   #1
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Real Estate - do we still have holdouts?

OK... I know there a a few on this board who keep saying how there is no correction in real estate prices... and keep putting up proof on same sales as evidence...

But.. can you still say that nothing is wrong with the mounting evidence

Existing home sales slip and prices tumble - Yahoo! News


My example is a house that I went to see during an open house... it was originally listed at $208K.... but they 'reduced' the price at the open house because the people were moving out that weekend... so now it was listed at $199K.... well, I was looking on the web and the price is now listed at $192K... I think this one will go down again if it does not sell soon as the company moved these people and have 'taken it over'....
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Old 02-26-2008, 01:25 AM   #2
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Without qualifiers such as neighborhood, region, and time frame, you forgot the only logical choice which is "All the above"
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Old 02-26-2008, 05:34 AM   #3
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Since we have averaged 9 years for the last three homes and we are now in year 3 in this one it really does not matter to us. Maybe it will 5-6 years from now. Check back then and I will let you know. BTW I did not vote - need a "don't care" option.
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Old 02-26-2008, 07:02 AM   #4
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Houses in my 6x8 block neighborhood have been selling for less, when they sell at all (which is rare these days).

When we last visited our tentative ER location in Missouri, we went to four open houses (thanks, Nords! for your encouragement on that). We learned a lot, but relevant to this thread is observation that realtors and owners seemed desperate and were engaging in one-sided bargaining.

Us: "We live in New Orleans, and plan to retire up here next year, but we are only here to peek inside and get a sense of the real estate market. We have to sell our houses down there before we buy, so we absolutely are NOT seriously looking and cannot buy. Do you mind if we look around anyway?"

Them: "How about 5% off? How about if we rent the house from you after you buy, until you can get here? Would you like some renovations? Owner financing, maybe? How about 10% off?"

Wow.
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:21 AM   #5
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I guess you would call it a slump, prices are down a bit in southern Cal but I just see it as a correction, I would have posted 'prices are too high' if there was such a poll for in last couple years. There needs to be a correlation to incomes and rental rates to set what is an appropriate house price IMHO.
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:23 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
Houses in my 6x8 block neighborhood have been selling for less, when they sell at all (which is rare these days).

When we last visited our tentative ER location in Missouri, we went to four open houses (thanks, Nords! for your encouragement on that). We learned a lot, but relevant to this thread is observation that realtors and owners seemed desperate and were engaging in one-sided bargaining.

Us: "We live in New Orleans, and plan to retire up here next year, but we are only here to peek inside and get a sense of the real estate market. We have to sell our houses down there before we buy, so we absolutely are NOT seriously looking and cannot buy. Do you mind if we look around anyway?"

Them: "How about 5% off? How about if we rent the house from you after you buy, until you can get here? Would you like some renovations? Owner financing, maybe? How about 10% off?"

Wow.
I think that's a good indicator of a down market. It also indicates that the salesman wasn’t listening to you or assumed you were lying to him. Put him on your list of people to avoid when you are in the market to buy.
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:44 AM   #7
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My stepson works for a developer as the general contractor here in the NE area, housing is way off. The developer is selling the houses just to break even and free up the money invested in the land and materials. He (my stepson) doesn't think it will get much worse but who knows.
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Old 02-26-2008, 08:57 AM   #8
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I work for a firm of Civil Engineers and let me tell you the residential market with new homes is dead in So. Cal.

However a new trend we ae seeing is developers are taking sites that have been previously configured for residential and converting them to industrial.
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Old 02-26-2008, 09:07 AM   #9
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For some reason on our satellite TV we get reruns of "Property Ladder" (kind of like "Flip This/That House") dubbed in Italian. It's quite a hoot to see the "flippers" and hear the prices they were paying (and expecting) in 2005-2006(?). The episode I saw was this one:
TLC :: Property Ladder :: Guess the Home Value
The pricing "game" here didn't work for me.. but on the show they wanted to list this POS for $900k-$1MILLION. They put in FAKE wood cabinets and weren't even bothered to replace all the baseboards they ripped out, and where they HAD done, they left out chunks.. the baseboard would just stop, sawn-off, 4 inches from a corner!

People are still dreaming, though.. Saw a house for sale recently at $399k (in rural, middle-of-nowhere CT) that'd been purchased 2 years ago for $289k. Uh huh, in this market You, whoever you are, with all the stuff out there for sale.. are gonna be making a 35% profit. Oy.

Commercial RE is also hurting in places. Here it looks like a neutron bomb went off:
Sacramento Real Estate Statistics: Natomas Area Commercial Real Estate Photolog

I would have voted for a fourth option: Housing has a ways to go down.
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Old 02-26-2008, 09:15 AM   #10
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I think I read your poll wrong. What I meant to vote is that RE is still going down, instead I marked it was going up. Uh, I don't think so.
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Old 02-26-2008, 09:53 AM   #11
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Things have slowed down here like a lot of other locations. Attached is a link to a PDF file I just scanned. It's a listing of homes that sold (not all) in the last 6 months in my zip code (43214). I get the listing each month in the mail.

Recently I've been tracking weekly home sales in the Sunday paper. In my zip code the numbers have hit bottom with just 2 sales listed last weekend, three weeks ago the count was close to 9. The listings are about 4-6 weeks old by the time they appear.

On my street (about 100 houses) there are only two for sale signs and there doesn't seem to be much interest in them.

http://mrcol.freeyellow.com/listing.pdf
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Old 02-26-2008, 11:02 AM   #12
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I'm not really doing much in the single family personal residence area, but i did follow this 21 unit complex here in Salem Oregon: brookwoodterrace.com The seller did a great job of marketing. We were looking at it with the idea of living in the house and renting out the other 20 units - figured the house could be worth a maximum of $200k. It appraised for $1.1M, sold for $1.2M. That meant the apartments went for $50K each, with some having popcorn ceilings, radiant ceiling heat in some, odd floor plans, single pane metal frame windows... The area, while right next to a park, is not that great - we have a 7-unit about 6 blocks away in a less desirable area, but with some better features - last year i was thinking it was worth $50k/unit, today i'm seeing comparable units sitting and asking $43K/unit. That's getting pretty close to the old rule of thumb that monthly rent should equal 1% of value. The best we ever bought had a rent equal to 1.6% of purchase price - but it was a raggedy rough place! I'm thinking that values may be a bit deflated, but rents are going up like gangbusters - on units that vacate we've gone from $390 up to $425 and they fill instantly. I guess the take away for me is that if you are renting multi-units the rent you get is likely to improve and make it easier to hold on. If you are renting a single family house and holding on by the skin of your teeth you may be screwed. If you have to sell your home right now you may be in trouble. We want to pedal a multi or two and convert to single family because i'm getting lazy and it seems like a great time to be buying single family. Pretty much like anything - you never want to have to sell, when all are selling it's a great time to be buying, and if you are going to sell do a workman-like job of it to maximise your profit.
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Old 02-26-2008, 11:16 AM   #13
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Sure. But I'd also say that some areas are in a huge slump with a sharp crash in values, and others are in a more gentle correction. In general, the less local markets shot upward over the last few years -- the more a local market resisted being swept into a bubble -- the better they will fair now. I heard on the local Austin news yesterday that sales volume and prices are actually still up in January 2008 from a year ago. Also, homes are selling in the Austin metro area after 4 months on average, compared to 9 months nationwide.

And values for Hill Country real estate seem to be very stable or even still climbing. So in all honesty, many people around these parts don't really notice much of a housing crash here at all. Having lived in San Jose until 2003, though, I witnessed enough craziness to see how a bubble would pop there and elsewhere.
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Old 02-26-2008, 11:27 AM   #14
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OK OK I'll agree! U.S. home prices DOWN 000.3%!!!

I need a bailout! Cash only please.


WASHINGTON, DC – U.S. home prices fell in the fourth quarter of 2007 according to OFHEO’s seasonally-adjusted purchase-only house price index. The index, which is based on data from home sales, was 1.3 percent lower on a seasonally-adjusted basis in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter of 2007. This decline was substantially greater than the 0.3 percent price decline between the second and third quarters. Over the past year, prices fell 0.3 percent, as the fourth quarter decline erased earlier price gains.

The states with the greatest rates of appreciation between the fourth quarter of 2006 and the fourth quarter of 2007 were: Utah (9.3%), Wyoming (8.3%), North Dakota (7.9%), Montana (6.9%), and Alaska (6.0%).
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Old 02-26-2008, 11:37 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
I heard on the local Austin news yesterday that sales volume and prices are actually still up in January 2008 from a year ago.
We're hearing different news.

"Sales of Central Texas homes fell 10 percent in January, the seventh month in a row that year-over-year sales dropped. But prices rose, and Austin's market is in better shape than the nation overall."

Central Texas home sales fall again, but stay ahead of national trends
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Old 02-26-2008, 11:41 AM   #16
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OK OK I'll agree! U.S. home prices DOWN 000.3%!!!

I need a bailout! Cash only please.
Keep closing your eyes and wishing upon a star. It'll happen one of these days.
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Old 02-26-2008, 12:16 PM   #17
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Quote:
Moody's: 8.8 million Homeowners Underwater
From Edmund L. Andrews and Louis Uchitelle at the NY Times: Rescues for Homeowners in Debt Weighed (hat tip SC)

Quote:
Not since the Depression has a larger share of Americans owed more on their homes than they are worth. With the collapse of the housing boom, nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent of the total, are underwater. That is more than double the percentage just a year ago, according to a new estimate of the damage by Moody’s Economy.com.
This article is mostly about the various bailout plans being proposed. But there is this comment (something I've been meaining to mention) on the impact of the housing bust on mobility in the U.S.:
Quote:
People cannot move easily to jobs in other cities if they have to sell their homes at a loss.
I haven't seen the new Economy.com estimate, but I think the 8.8 million number might be a little high. However it is definitely in the ballpark. The 10.3 percent is of total homes including second homes (see here for data). I think a better number would be the percent of owner occupied homes with mortgages: 8.8 million underwater of the 51.2 million owner occupied homes with mortgages (see here) is about 17% of homeowners with mortgages are underwater according to Economy.com.
Calculated Risk: Moody's: 8.8 million Homeowners Underwater

but then how reliable is Moody's?
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Old 02-26-2008, 12:20 PM   #18
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Scott Burns seems to think like all real estate Location Location Location

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Old 02-26-2008, 01:23 PM   #19
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finally another house sold in the association where is located my inherited house, a gorgeous (if you like that sort of thing) intracoastal point lot with an 11k sq ft house which got $9mm. also the sign is off another house which was asking $1.99mm and i saw a moving truck but i do not yet know the selling price. only one house sold in 2007, which got $950k for about 2k sq ft and is now back on market for $1.25k (the original owner sold in two weeks when he found out he was dying). i think two or three sold in 2006. there is currently only one foreclosure, a builder gone bust; it is asking $2.1mm. a very monied area, other foreclosures here are highly unlikely.

but it is mostly just the bottom feeders buying now and they are waiting on foreclosures so it might be another year or two before the inherited house sells at a reasonable price. i've got only one daydreaming builder with an unofficial offer of 700k and an appraisal on the land value of $910k so i'm going to rent it out while it is for sale so at least i can stop some of the money leak.

mine is beyond doubt the best buy in the area, more than fairly priced, asking about 23% under peak bubble, but i am not giving it away. the next, a much lesser property, is asking $50k more. there are currently only 9 properties for sale there ranging to over $7mm.

in the area where i live, foreclosures are creeping up, not in my immediate area but surrounding me so that's a little scary. there is one foreclosure on my block with no sale sign posted but research shows about $550k owed on a house that might be worth $280k at this point. at bubble height maybe it was worth $375-425k (guessing) so obviously there was some scamming. a house for sale near me which probably could have gotten $500plusk at bubble height reduced to $375k and the sign is finally gone more than a year later; i do not yet know the selling price. there is only one other property on my street asking $350k, worth maybe $300k. zillow has me pegged at $330k but i bet it would take me a year or more to sell it.

here's some stuff from local papers on current area sales:

S&P: Miami leads drop in home prices - South Florida Business Journal:
Quote:
Home prices in the Miami metropolitan area dropped 17.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, the biggest decline in the country, data released by Standard & Poor's showed.
Las Vegas and Phoenix were right behind, with a 15.3 percent year-over-year decline. Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Detroit and Washington, D.C., all posted declines in the double digits.
Nationwide, home prices had fallen 8.9 percent by Dec. 31, ending a full year of declining prices.
The S&P/Case-Shiller quarterly index tracks the prices of existing single-family homes nationwide compared to a year earlier.
FAR: home sales see double-digit decline - South Florida Business Journal:
Quote:
In Fort Lauderdale, sales fell 33 percent, to 307 homes from 458 homes, as prices declined 14 percent, to $314,200 from $364,500.
In West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, sales fell 26 percent, to 369 homes from 496 homes, as prices declined 12 percent, to $343,200 from $388,000.
Quote:
Near South Florida, sales:
  • fell 31 percent in Fort Meyers-Cape Coral, to 338 homes from 492 homes, as prices declined 12 percent, to $234,000 from $266,900.
  • fell 21 percent in Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie, to 200 homes from 252 homes, as prices declined 27 percent, to $175,300 from $241,000.
  • fell 27 percent in Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay, to 258 homes from 352 homes, as prices declined 13 percent, to $175,200 from $202,100.
  • increased 11 percent in Marco Island, to 31 homes from 28 homes, as prices declined 1 percent, to $529,500 from $533,300.
  • declined 13 percent in Punta Gorda, to 175 homes from 155 homes, as prices declined 21 percent, to $156,800 from $199,400.
Statewide, 6,737 single-family homes were sold, down 28 percent from 9,360 homes sold in January 2007. The median sales price fell 14 percent, to $208,600 from $242,700.
Good month, bad year for Palm Beach County home prices
Quote:
In a hopeful note for the housing market, Palm Beach County's median home price rose slightly in January compared to December.
The typical single-family home sold for $343,200, the Florida Association of Realtors said today, up 1.6 percent from December's $337,900.
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Old 02-26-2008, 03:26 PM   #20
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I saw a house on HGTV 's Open House that was listed at $700,000 in Bradenton when the show aired. The house is now selling for $480,000.
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