Role of luck in life success

[COcheesehead]

Everybody should read the book Outliers.

 

[nancyfrank232]

My success is 100% luck

No question

 

[Ronstar]

I don't know to what extent (if any) that I am successful. And I certainly can't quantify the level of luck that played a role in whatever level of success that I have achieved. Any analysis of the subject is subjective.

 

[RobbieB]

I'm a complete slacker, always have been. I must be really lucky!

 

[BoodaGazelle]

Non of the many “lucky” advantages, such as being born in America, are not enough to prevent you from having a pretty crappy life, if you do not take the right steps to avail yourself of them.

Most of this type of talk is political, and another way to increase “resentment against achievement”... read the book of the same name, by Robert Sheaffer.

 

[Fermion]

Luck plays a huge part, no question about it. Two people can have the exact same skill set yet one is lucky enough to work for a company whose stock options pay off 1000x and the other has their company go belly up.

Also, I made 550% in a bit over a year in the stock market, that ain't skill.

 

[DrRoy]

How many have read Ringworld by Larry Niven? A risk adverse alien is building a team for a potentially dangerous task. As part of the team, he wants someone who is very lucky. However, he cannot get or often even find the candidates that are deemed to be the very most lucky. (They are too lucky to get involved in a dangerous venture.)

 

[Fermion]

How many have read Ringworld by Larry Niven? A risk adverse alien is building a team for a potentially dangerous task. As part of the team, he wants someone who is very lucky. However, he cannot get or often even find the candidates that are deemed to be the very most lucky. (They are too lucky to get involved in a dangerous venture.)

That would tend to skew the results of any type of poll or survey on here. The really unlucky would not be even thinking about early retirement and thus would not be posting here and the super lucky are on their 110 foot megayacht in one of their 3 hot tubs and definitely not posting here. We only get the middle people.

 

[marko]

Luck plays a huge part, no question about it. Two people can have the exact same skill set yet one is lucky enough to work for a company whose stock options pay off 1000x and the other has their company go belly up.

This may not be the best example. I think it would be up to the other one to leave a company that wasn't compensating him well enough for his skills. There's 'exact same skills' and then there's ambition.

If I felt underappreciated by my company, or in a loser company, I would go find a company that did rather than blame my bad luck. Actually, that is exactly what I did way back when.

"Life isn't fair. It's your job to go to where it isn't fair in your favor" (anon)

 

[Fermion]

This may not be the best example. I think it would be up to the other one to leave a company that wasn't compensating him well enough for his skills. There's 'exact same skills' and then there's ambition.

If I felt underappreciated by my company, or in a loser company, I would go find a company that did rather than blame my bad luck. Actually, that is exactly what I did way back when.

"Life isn't fair. It's your job to go to where it isn't fair in your favor" (anon)

You are likely fooling yourself the same way a market timer fools themselves if you think you can reliably predict the success of a company even while working there. It also sometimes is not super easy to just pick up and leave after you have settled down, bought a house, etc.

When we left a large software company in Redmond in 2014, I figured they were going to muddle around for a few years and never become huge again....the stock has gone up 500% since then.

 

[Ready-4-ER-at-14]

I always joke around with family or friends that invest that I'm either lucky or good, and EITHER works.

 

[target2019]

Luck may not be presented to individuals equally. I believe our luck was above average, and we did position ourselves for the "lightning strike", as it were.

 

[Winemaker]

If one compares oneself as a professional sport team, doesn't luck, preparation, and wealth all factor in to the team's success? They all contribute to an degree but doesn't motivation play a bigger role?

 

[MichaelB]

Seeking employment after college, I can’t imagine being able to look ahead a couple of decades to assess the future prospects of the business, my level of achievement, or my compensation. Stock options weren’t even a thought.

Over the years we got together with college mates and compared notes. We compared achievements, but even then, longer term prospects were unknown. Same with my brother. Things like stock options didn’t appear until decades later, and they certainly weren’t applied evenly across the employment choices we all made.

In order to make the right choice regarding things like stock options, I would have needed a time machine. In my case, stock based compensation I received was the result of two factors. One was my professional achievement. The other was a change in policy regarding executive compensation around the time I made it to any executive level. They very low option price I had was worth more than gold, as the world thought my employer might go out of business, and it didn’t.

My brother, smarter, same strong work ethic, similar level of professional achievement, but no stock options in his company. So, toward the end our our professional lives, we all have different financial pictures. Same with my college mates. How to explain these difference? Some is smart choice, part is my effort, the rest is good fortune - in my humble opinion.

 

[Go-NoGo]

Did no one read the study the OP posted:

"...Taking these sort of findings seriously, the European Research Council gave the biochemist Ohid Yaqub 1.7 million dollars to properly determine the extent of serendipity in science.

Coming up with a multidimensional definition of serendipity, Yaqub was last seen boarding a plane for South America. When he was later apprehended in Belize in his mansion with in infinity pool, Yaqub was quoted as saying he was demonstrating in a very personal way of how luck played an important role in life outcomes. The European Research Council declined comment on study and said it was reviewing it's grant screening process"



And now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

 

[nancyfrank232]

How many have read Ringworld by Larry Niven? A risk adverse alien is building a team for a potentially dangerous task. As part of the team, he wants someone who is very lucky. However, he cannot get or often even find the candidates that are deemed to be the very most lucky. (They are too lucky to get involved in a dangerous venture.)

This reminds me of a funny quote:

“When hiring for a job I take the stack of resumes and split them in two. I take one pile and throw it in the garbage because I don’t want to hire unlucky people”

 

[COcheesehead]

Non of the many “lucky” advantages, such as being born in America, are not enough to prevent you from having a pretty crappy life, if you do not take the right steps to avail yourself of them.

Most of this type of talk is political, and another way to increase “resentment against achievement”... read the book of the same name, by Robert Sheaffer.

I don’t think anyone here is stating resentment against achievement by any means just acknowledging how randomness plays a role in all of our lives.
Yes, what we do with the “randomness” matters, but as Forest Gump said “do do happens.”

 

[marko]

You are likely fooling yourself the same way a market timer fools themselves if you think you can reliably predict the success of a company even while working there. It also sometimes is not super easy to just pick up and leave after you have settled down, bought a house, etc.

Agree you can't predict a company's success. But even the 23 year old me had a mental checklist of what I expected from a company in compensation/benefits and growth opportunity for what I could do for them. Maybe naive at the time but I had little patience for places that just wanted me to be a drone and where the guy sitting next to me was 56 years old and doing the same mind-numbing job for 25 years.

I just bounced from job to job until I found a place that what I thought best fit that list. I'd often drive through office parking lots a lunch checking out how new the employees' cars were just to get a feel for how well they might pay.

I found that company on my fifth try but I would have kept searching until I found it.

 

[JoeWras]

Did no one read the study the OP posted:

"...Taking these sort of findings seriously, the European Research Council gave the biochemist Ohid Yaqub 1.7 million dollars to properly determine the extent of serendipity in science.

Coming up with a multidimensional definition of serendipity, Yaqub was last seen boarding a plane for South America. When he was later apprehended in Belize in his mansion with in infinity pool, Yaqub was quoted as saying he was demonstrating in a very personal way of how luck played an important role in life outcomes. The European Research Council declined comment on study and said it was reviewing it's grant screening process"



And now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Ha ha, nice fan fiction there.

However, there is money in this talk, which is why it keeps coming up. Worse yet, I believe this discussion keeps coming up because there are plenty of people out there who need validation to "level the playing field."

Coming soon to an election booth near you.

 

[friar1610]

Luck is the intersection of opportunity and preparation.

A guy I worked for in the Navy used to say that all the time. And he retired as a Rear Admiral.

ETA: He always sought out the tough, challenging assignments. When he was in the zone of consideration for promotion to flag rank, he was one of the best prepared.

 

[jimbee]

Everybody should read the book Outliers.

Thanks for the suggestion. The book looks interesting, and I reserved it at the library.

 

[frayne]

I've always believed to a large extent one makes their own luck, good or bad.

 

[zinger1457]

Have a feeling that many people, maybe even a few on this forum, would not score very high on an empathy quiz.

 

[COcheesehead]

I've always believed to a large extent one makes their own luck, good or bad.

One of the stories from Outliers is about Bill Gates. As a teenager he had written more code than almost anybody in the country at that time. Why? His parents happened to live next to one of the few universities that had a computer and he got a job there. Yes HE coded till his hands hurt I am sure, but would the opportunity even existed had his parents chose to live somewhere else? Lots of stories like these in Outliers and you begin to see how randomness plays a role.

 

[marko]

Why? His parents happened to live next to one of the few universities that had a computer and he got a job there. Yes HE coded till his hands hurt I am sure, but would the opportunity even existed had his parents chose to live somewhere else?

What about the other kids who lived next to that university?