"Sandy".

[skyvue]

Lost electricity here in the Cleveland, Ohio area Monday at 5:00 p.m. Still out as of now (48 hours later) with no end in sight. Last I heard they were telling people to plan for it being out till Friday or Saturday!

The cheapskate in me is frustrated over the $200 worth of food I am going to have to throw away that was in my refigerator and freezer.

Luckily, there are still many restaurants and bars nearby who have not lost power. I have a built in excuse to spend my evenings (after work) in the local Sports Pubs!

Also thankful it is not too cold (45). Sleeping at home has been bearable the last couple nights at that temp.

 

[ERD50]

The next time I see someone complain about public w*rkers...

We are home and safe..they are not. Any questions ?

Hold on there cowgirl!

Just because many public workers do a great job, and some risk life and limb for our safety, does not mean we can't legitimately complain about any slackers.

I would hope that the good ones would be the first to complain about the 'bad apples' that give the good ones a bad name (in some people's minds - I don't judge a group by the few).

Is that OK?

-ERD50

 

[Gumby]

Why don't you just give it a rest for awhile?

 

[aldo]

Why don't you just give it a rest for awhile?

+1

 

[Purron]

Just heard from some friends of ours who live about 35 miles west of DC in Virginia. Four big trees down on their property - one hit their house, one's blocking the driveway, and two just down in the yard. Some family of ours in southwestern VA got some snow and sleet. I know most of the most serious damage is concentrated in NJ and NY, but dang this was one big, bad a$$ storm. Never seen anything like it.

 

[LOL!]

Left Long Island today. Since airports not really open and several flight cancellations interfered with getting out before Saturday, I hitched a ride to Pittsburgh where a plane awaits me tomorrow. Didn't need to use any cash despite no power since Monday.

 

[Brat]

...
As for insurer liquidity, insurers specifically construct their balance sheets with these types of events in mind and the industry as a whole is awash with an excess amount of capital.

This event should fix that. How liquid is that capital?

 

[meierlde]

We tried filling the bathtubs last time. The water leaked out! I imagine there is some sort of fix for that, but how do you justify paying a plumber to fix the bathtubs to ensure they hold water for a week during a power outage? Plumbers charge $115.00 just to come to the house around here.

Amethyst

Actually a couple of plastic garbage cans would work, put a garbage bag inside and fill as needed. New cans typically hold water on their own but the bags help. The cans are strong enough to hold the weight.

 

[donheff]

Nords...please please PLEASE jump all over this...

Inside Breezy Point: An Inferno in a Flood - Yahoo! News

The fire could not be prevented. Emergency w*rkers have to overcome stupidity and be redirected to rescue fools versus doing the j*b they were trained to do...emergency response NOT fighting Darwinian selection.

The home owners couldn't do anything about this but it is possible the city could have. I just saw a news overhead of teh fire area and they mentioned that some ocean front communities cut power when the hurricane came ashore. This area didn't. A lot of places had fires started by electrical shorts, sometimes accelerated by gas leaks. With a mandatory evacuation notice it seems reasonable to cut power until roads are clear enough for emergency vehicles to get back in.

 

[brewer12345]

This event should fix that. How liquid is that capital?

Nah, this event is likely to be bupkis to the industry. So far the catastrophe modellers have kicked out 7 to 15 billion as the preliminary estimate of losses. Initial estimates are usually too low, so lets assume that the likely loss range is more like 15 to 20 billion. Sounds like a big number, but the industry as a whole finished 2011 with policyholders' surplus (regulatory capital measure) of $550 billion (see: III - 2011 - Year End Results ). In addition, a fair chunk of losses like this get transfered to the global reinsurance industry, which represents another pool of caital.

As far as liquidity goes, property casualty balance sheets are usually very conservatively invested. 80 to 90% of assets will typically be in investment grade fixed income, ghenerally with pretty modest durations and concentrated in the most liquid sectors of the market.

 

[brewer12345]

I am hearing pretty ugly stories from my former neighbors and friends in central NJ. Likely power outages for two weeks or more, low water pressure, flooding, major house damage from large trees falling. In my old cul-de-sac neighborhood a huge tree hit a pumping substation and now raw sewage is being dumped out, much of which is ending up in the lake. In NYC there are widespread power outages, flooding, nobody can go anywhere, although apparently they are managing to restock the supermarkets.

 

[imoldernu]

From friend on Long Beach...3 blocks from beach
"total- utter devastation"
no electricity
no water or sewer
all grass disappeared under 4 to 12 inches of sand
no gas
intermittent cell phone
no cable
boats in yards three blocks from beach
no way to get to work
stores closed
those that are open low or no food
some local businesses have thrown in towel, incl friends wife's employer
homes with basements are flooded
ocean covered entire island
half of all trees down
as of Wednesday - residents emotionally stunned.

Google view of Long Beach gives an idea of closeness of housing.

Bloomberg on losses...
Sandy Damage Estimate Raised to as Much as $50 Billion - Bloomberg

 

[brewer12345]

From friend on Long Beach...3 blocks from beach
"total- utter devastation"
no electricity
no water or sewer
all grass disappeared under 4 to 12 inches of sand
no gas
intermittent cell phone
no cable
boats in yards three blocks from beach
no way to get to work
stores closed
those that are open low or no food
some local businesses have thrown in towel, incl friends wife's employer
homes with basements are flooded
ocean covered entire island
half of all trees down
as of Wednesday - residents emotionally stunned.

Google view of Long Beach gives an idea of closeness of housing.

Bloomberg on losses...
Sandy Damage Estimate Raised to as Much as $50 Billion - Bloomberg

Sad to see, but I have to wonder: why do we keep rebuilding on barrier islands like this?

 

[haha]

Sad to see, but I have to wonder: why do we keep rebuilding on barrier islands like this?

Because if private insurers are too smart to insure this stuff, we benevolent taxpayers, through our government and the magic of deficit financing, will step into the gap.

And because infantile people will not accept any limits on their wills.

Ha

 

[Brat]

Developers want to build, people want cheap land, cities want to increase their tax base. Zoning and City Planners are told by politicians to allow it.

Now is the time for insurers to say NO to rebuilding in those areas. Give the home owner the $ to which they would be entitled in a re-build and tell them to go home shopping. Back in the day, in the 60s, the only houses on Fire Island were beach cottages that everyone understood were expendable.

Development is a political act. We can't expect politicians to push back, it is time for insurers to tell the public that if they build in vulnerable areas the price will be high. I recall the residents of Florida complaining of the cost of insurance, evidently the state stepped in with some kind of public insurance program. I hope that NY and NJ don't do that for any rebuilds. There is no reason to distribute that risk across the community.

 

[MasterBlaster]

Now is the time for insurers to say NO to rebuilding in those areas

Based on what I see with Fire insurance claims here in SoCal I don't think it will happen.

Here in SoCal people love to live right next to the forest areas prone to firestorms. In some areas a firestorm comes through every decade or so. Afterward we hear pundits and the press make statements such as yours.

Yet the houses get rebuilt bigger and bolder. Over the years more and more people build in these areas. And when the insurance rates go a little higher, the politicians see that the risk gets spread amoungst those far away from the danger so that those in great peril don't have to pay too much..

We all pay more so that people can live in these damage-prone areas.

 

[Ronstar]

Developers want to build, people want cheap land, cities want to increase their tax base. Zoning and City Planners are told by politicians to allow it.

Now is the time for insurers to say NO to rebuilding in those areas. Give the home owner the $ to which they would be entitled in a re-build and tell them to go home shopping. Back in the day, in the 60s, the only houses on Fire Island were beach cottages that everyone understood were expendable.

Development is a political act. We can't expect politicians to push back, it is time for insurers to tell the public that if they build in vulnerable areas the price will be high. I recall the residents of Florida complaining of the cost of insurance, evidently the state stepped in with some kind of public insurance program. I hope that NY and NJ don't do that for any rebuilds. There is no reason to distribute that risk across the community.

This is a tragedy and may become a bigger one for some property owners. I have seen instances where building permits for reconstruction after tornados were denied, making the properties unbuildable. The driving force is FEMA, the agency that regulates construction in flood prone areas. The builders filed for building permits, the city building dept's checked and found that the properties were in a FEMA defined flood plain, and the permits were denied.

Since the geographic limits of property remains unchanged during such an event, many properties could be under water, let alone in a flood plain. My heart goes out to these people because there is not much that they can do.

 

[pb4uski]

....With a mandatory evacuation notice it seems reasonable to cut power until roads are clear enough for emergency vehicles to get back in.

That an knowing that the power would be cut might encourage some of the [-]idiots[/-] people that would otherwise stay to evacuate.

 

[pb4uski]

Nah, this event is likely to be bupkis to the industry. So far the catastrophe modellers have kicked out 7 to 15 billion as the preliminary estimate of losses. Initial estimates are usually too low, so lets assume that the likely loss range is more like 15 to 20 billion. Sounds like a big number, but the industry as a whole finished 2011 with policyholders' surplus (regulatory capital measure) of $550 billion (see: III - 2011 - Year End Results ). In addition, a fair chunk of losses like this get transfered to the global reinsurance industry, which represents another pool of caital.

As far as liquidity goes, property casualty balance sheets are usually very conservatively invested. 80 to 90% of assets will typically be in investment grade fixed income, ghenerally with pretty modest durations and concentrated in the most liquid sectors of the market.

+1 It will be an unwanted hiccup, and will dampen 2012 profits, but not debilitating in any way.

 

[Chuckanut]

It would probably help for the Gubmint to stop insuring people who choose to build or rebuild in these areas. Use the existing insurance payments to buy them out and turn the beaches into public spaces.

Need a storm surge barrier? Look no farther than the Netherlands. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maeslantkering

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl...L6fDiwKm24GIDQ&sqi=2&ved=0CFIQ9QEwBg&dur=2562

 

[Texas Proud]

This is a tragedy and may become a bigger one for some property owners. I have seen instances where building permits for reconstruction after tornados were denied, making the properties unbuildable. The driving force is FEMA, the agency that regulates construction in flood prone areas. The builders filed for building permits, the city building dept's checked and found that the properties were in a FEMA defined flood plain, and the permits were denied.

Since the geographic limits of property remains unchanged during such an event, many properties could be under water, let alone in a flood plain. My heart goes out to these people because there is not much that they can do.

LOL.... this reminded me of a trust that I had to review to make sure it was being handled properly.... one of the requirements is to go inspect real property... so, there was a picture of a shrimp trawler motoring by... the person wrote something like 'below this trawler is the subject property'.... yep, around islands and barrier reefs land moves around.... the sad part is that they still had to pay taxes on the property (a trust can not just stop paying if there is no language in the trust allowing it)....

 

[rodi]

Based on what I see with Fire insurance claims here in SoCal I don't think it will happen.

Here in SoCal people love to live right next to the forest areas prone to firestorms. In some areas a firestorm comes through every decade or so. Afterward we hear pundits and the press make statements such as yours.

Yet the houses get rebuilt bigger and bolder. Over the years more and more people build in these areas. And when the insurance rates go a little higher, the politicians see that the risk gets spread amoungst those far away from the danger so that those in great peril don't have to pay too much..

We all pay more so that people can live in these damage-prone areas.

The building codes did change here in San Diego after the big wildfires in 2003 and 2008. We built a granny flat after 2003 and had to have the plans reviewed by the fire marshall since we're close to a canyon. It was already a fire hardened design (because my husband, the architect, is paranoid about fire and earthquake) but the fire marshall tweaked it even more...especially on the roof vents. This is a house that was already stucco, tile roof, metal clad windows, etc. Heck - even the landscaping had to get blessed and they nixed our plan for a row of Italian cypress trees.

I know in the new development east of Rancho Santa Fe all new homes have to have fire suppressant sprinklers, etc... The idea is that they can shelter in place during a wildfire.

 

[Nords]

Sad to see, but I have to wonder: why do we keep rebuilding on barrier islands like this?

"Barrier"? Barrier to what?

 

[pb4uski]

.... yep, around islands and barrier reefs land moves around.... the sad part is that they still had to pay taxes on the property (a trust can not just stop paying if there is no language in the trust allowing it)....

But if your land was covered by water and unusable, wouldn't its fair value then be zero (no one would pay you money for underwater property)? If so, then the owner/trust could grieve their assessment and get relief through a nil (or next to nil) assessed value? I think that is the way it would work around here.

 

[brewer12345]

"Barrier"? Barrier to what?

Punching bag for storms as they approach the mainland. Everyone who owns property on the Jersey shore knows that the islands are the cannon fodder for incoming storms and is fooling themselves if they think their property will not at some point get pounded. That is why I never chose to live there (we lived 5 miles inland).

Well, not really my problem any more.