Self Driving Cars?

Thought these charts might be useful on this thread (on the poll thread already).

Levels of self-driving autonomy:

self-driving-car-sae-levels-of-driving-automation-chart-2.jpg


Just one writers estimated timeline:

Driverless cars could reduce traffic fatalities by up to 90%, says report - ScienceAlert
 

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You're asking me?

If so, whether the evolution to affordable level 5 cars takes years, or decades, we will most likely have been forced to use a level 5 car via car/ride sharing for years or decades. Having adapted, I can't imagine why I'd then want to buy my own personal self driving car unless it's net cheaper for me. I've already ridden in busses, taxis, limos and Ubers - sharing a vehicle doesn't bother me.

So there is no $ number threshold, it's which is more cost effective for me. We are a LBYM community after all...

The answer of convenience depends very much on where you live, inner city, dense suburbs, exurbs, or rural. The last two cases would be wait times of likley 30 mins for an shared auto. For rural folks they would want an self driving pickup anyway. Dense suburbs and inner city, likley 15 mins or less (although when I lived in Houston, and needed a cab it took 30 mins for it to get there). Or if you want to go on a driving vacation. Further it should be noted that you can still get a vehicle license for a Model T if you want (in fact you can get historic car plates).

But for example for a rural person they might want to drive their car on one of their fields to observe what is happening. Or drive on the lawn to load unload stuff from the back of the house. (Assuming no alley). This suggests that level 5 cars will still need an option for driver controls in these situations.
 
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That's a good point.

Also in need of a robot-car override: the person who works at a maximum-security installation, where they change the input/output routines randomly every now and then as an "anti-terrorism" measure.

Failure to comprehend the signs (written or otherwise) that direct you on the exact correct current route to your parking area, could result in a) not being able to park b) having a run-in with security guards c) something worse.

But for example for a rural person they might want to drive their car on one of their fields to observe what is happening. Or drive on the lawn to load unload stuff from the back of the house. (Assuming no alley). This suggests that level 5 cars will still need an option for driver controls in these situations.
 
And as cars take over more and more of the driving, the human drivers (especially the younger ones who will have known nothing but self-driving cars) will become less and less skilled. And situations that require manual intervention are generally the trickiest. So the skills will be lacking just when they're needed the most.

The Paradox of Automation. See also: The Asiana Airlines crash in San Francisco in 2013. The pilots had become so reliant on automation that they flew a perfectly good airplane right into the seawall, just a few feet short of the runway. Investigators discovered that of the thousands of hours of flying time in the pilots' log books, they were almost all accrued entirely under autopilot circumstances. They were career airline pilots who literally didn't know how to actually fly an airplane.
 
The answer of convenience depends very much on where you live, inner city, dense suburbs, exurbs, or rural. The last two cases would be wait times of likley 30 mins for an shared auto. For rural folks they would want an self driving pickup anyway. Dense suburbs and inner city, likley 15 mins or less (although when I lived in Houston, and needed a cab it took 30 mins for it to get there). Or if you want to go on a driving vacation. Further it should be noted that you can still get a vehicle license for a Model T if you want (in fact you can get historic car plates).

But for example for a rural person they might want to drive their car on one of their fields to observe what is happening. Or drive on the lawn to load unload stuff from the back of the house. (Assuming no alley). This suggests that level 5 cars will still need an option for driver controls in these situations.
Well stated. Convenience/where one lives will be a critical variable. But so is cost. We can discuss all day and never reach a solution without having a common assumption on (relative) cost, and there's no solid basis on cost. If level 5 cars come to pass in sooner and at a lower premium to level 0-2 cars, more people will own them directly. But if level 5 cars take decades and start at a considerable premium, we may all have been forced to adapt to sharing, and won't need to own cars. The 'rural person who needs to observe their fields' will have already bought an ATV, golf cart, or a drone for that purpose. Or there might be real time Google Earth by then. We'll all weigh the cost of sharing vs owning, our $ resources, and our "convenience" needs/desires - and make our choice.

It's an aside to the above, but some posts are inadvertently further confusing the issue because we don't have common assumptions of self-driving - I was guilty of it not long ago. Some people are referring to level 3-4 cars, where others mean mature level 5 cars (the frame of reference I'm trying to work from).
 
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You're asking me?

If so, whether the evolution to affordable level 5 cars takes years, or decades, we will most likely have been forced to use a level 5 car via car/ride sharing for years or decades. Having adapted, I can't imagine why I'd then want to buy my own personal self driving car unless it's net cheaper for me. I've already ridden in busses, taxis, limos and Ubers - sharing a vehicle doesn't bother me.

So there is no $ number threshold, it's which is more cost effective for me. We are a LBYM community after all...

This estimate seems pretty damned frugal!

Then there’s the cost of the fleet itself, which Keeney said is too early to estimate, though a driverless electric vehicle is expected to cost $15,000 in 2020

Driverless cars could cost 35 cents per mile for the Uber consumer - MarketWatch
 
This estimate seems pretty damned frugal!
Then there’s the cost of the fleet itself, which Keeney said is too early to estimate, though a driverless electric vehicle is expected to cost $15,000 in 2020

Driverless cars could cost 35 cents per mile for the Uber consumer - MarketWatch
That's really hard for me to imagine, and I wouldn't bet with them, but they know more than I do. That would obviously make owning an autonomous car accessible to - everyone. Time will tell.
 
The Paradox of Automation. See also: The Asiana Airlines crash in San Francisco in 2013. The pilots had become so reliant on automation that they flew a perfectly good airplane right into the seawall, just a few feet short of the runway. Investigators discovered that of the thousands of hours of flying time in the pilots' log books, they were almost all accrued entirely under autopilot circumstances. They were career airline pilots who literally didn't know how to actually fly an airplane.

I forgot about this accident, and failed to follow up later. Here's the cause.

The NTSB found that the "Mismanagement of Approach and Inadequate Monitoring of Airspeed Led to Crash of Asiana flight 214". The NTSB determined that the flight crew mismanaged the initial approach and that the airplane was well above the desired glidepath. In response, the captain selected an inappropriate autopilot mode, which, without the captain's awareness, resulted in the autothrottle no longer controlling airspeed. The aircraft then descended below the desired glide path with the crew unaware of the decreasing airspeed. The attempted go-around was conducted below 100 feet, by which time it was too late. Over-reliance on automation and lack of systems understanding by the pilots were cited as major factors contributing to the accident.​
I do not know about the various autopilot/autothrottle modes of the 777 to know what modes the crew was selecting. But they crashed because the autothrottle disengaged by design, and they did not know it. Nobody was controlling the throttle, and the aircraft speed dropped and it stalled. They punched Go Around, but it was too late.

Hmm... I wonder what happened to the stall warning subsystem. The aircraft I worked on had an aural stall warning plus a stick shaker to alert the pilots if the airspeed drops below a safe level, which is computed based on various air parameters as well as aircraft configuration like flap and slat settings, etc...

Understanding how an automated system works, and what it does in different situations or modes is important. One can say that if everything is 100% automated, then the pilots would not select the wrong modes. But then, what are pilots for? Why don't we have pilotless jet liners?

Well, the pilots are there in case the system malfunctions despite its multiple control channels (these aircraft fly with triple-redundancy control channels, but things can still fail). In this case, they messed up.

A car system is different, in that if the car can be made to coast down to a stop, the occupants can walk home. One cannot park an aircraft in the sky, hence the extra measures in designing the autopilot. Bad things can still happen, unfortunately.

PS. Big turbofan jet engines with a high bypass ratio have a big response lag. To get them to rev up from idle speed takes many precious seconds. Hence, there is a higher "flight idle" rpm vs. "ground idle". Modern aircraft are complicated and tricky enough to fly that it is not possible to fly without a computer to help and track what is happening.
 
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A "regular" $15,000 car driven for 200,000 miles would not cost any more than 35 cents per mile.

Assuming $0 value at the end, depreciation is 7.5 cents per mile.
$10,000 in licensing and insurance over a 5-6 year life span is 5 cents per mile.
30 mpg @ $3 per gallon is 10 cents per mile.
$5,000 for tires, maintenance, etc., is 2.5 cents per mile

Total - 25 cents per mile.
 
Well stated. Convenience/where one lives will be a critical variable. But so is cost. We can discuss all day and never reach a solution without having a common assumption on (relative) cost, and there's no solid basis on cost. If level 5 cars come to pass in sooner and at a lower premium to level 0-2 cars, more people will own them directly. But if level 5 cars take decades and start at a considerable premium, we may all have been forced to adapt to sharing, and won't need to own cars. The 'rural person who needs to observe their fields' will have already bought an ATV, golf cart, or a drone for that purpose. Or there might be real time Google Earth by then. We'll all weigh the cost of sharing vs owning, our $ resources, and our "convenience" needs/desires - and make our choice.

It's an aside to the above, but some posts are inadvertently further confusing the issue because we don't have common assumptions of self-driving - I was guilty of it not long ago. Some people are referring to level 3-4 cars, where others mean mature level 5 cars (the frame of reference I'm trying to work from).

Midpack, I think you made some great points during this entire discussion!
 
Midpack, I think you made some great points during this entire discussion!
Thanks, it's been interesting. I'm not as certain as a few posters here, I am sure I'm completely wrong about much of it...
 
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Chris7 said:
I enjoy driving. As long as I can drive safely, I should be allowed to drive.
Who decides what safe is - you? If the projections come true and humans in level 1 cars actually cause 10 times as many accidents as a level 5 self driving car, still your choice? You become a significant hazard to other drivers.

At some point (many years from now), insurance on level 1 cars may become prohibitively expensive, severely restricted or no longer available. Or manually driven cars may be completely outlawed on public roads. If you want to drive old school, you go to a site, almost like 'amusement parks' where humans can manually drive cars on private roads only.

[Edit: 50 years from now when most of us are riding around in level 5 self driving cars with no steering wheel, pedals, etc. - folks like you will still be able to buy at a premium, a car with all the manual controls of today that you can drive yourself. BUT, it will also have level 5 self driving capability by law, and the instant you do something remotely dangerous, the car will take over control and override you. Probably more likely?

And if in 2067 you want to drive your classic 1959 Ferrari 250 GT California Spyder, you'll be restricted to a private amusement park as described above. Unless you refit it with level 5 capability. Where would you put LIDAR? :D]


It's all speculating, and it'll take decades to fully evolve, but there may come a day where it's no longer a choice. Just like you can't ride a horse on roads with cars in many places people did 100+ years ago - evidently that transition took place between 1920 and 1939.

1959-ferrari-250-gt-california-spyder33.jpg
 
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Who decides what safe is - you? If the projections come true and humans in level 1 cars actually cause 10 times as many accidents as a level 5 self driving car, still your choice? You become a significant hazard to other drivers.

Not everyone will be a hazard. For example there are plenty of drivers that can stop faster than the best current ABS brake technology.

I expect the same thing will happen with self-driving cars...it will take a very long time for a self-driving car to meet or exceed the capability of a highly skilled, professional driver.
 
.............it will take a very long time for a self-driving car to meet or exceed the capability of a highly skilled, professional driver.
And it will take very little time for self driving cars to exceed the capabilities of the average American driver. :LOL:
 
How many professional drivers in the population? Probably a fraction of 1%?
 
For example there are plenty of drivers that can stop faster than the best current ABS brake technology.

It will take a very long time for a self-driving car to meet or exceed the capability of a highly skilled, professional driver.
Do you have a link for either claim?
 
While there are many issues to be sorted out, another promising feature of self-driving cars will be all drivers will benefit from improvements much faster.

In the past if a driver, car maker, safety off, etc. found an issue, it would take days-weeks-months-years for all drivers to get the word depending on severity.

With self driving cars, every time there's a software update (think how often many of your devices and apps update), any new capability will be provided to all drivers at once. So if one person finds an issue, all other drivers will benefit much, much faster.
 
Yeah but people with money won't want to share cars.

After a few rides getting cars with odors, where people have just eaten or whatever, people will get hyperconscious about hygiene issues.
This is where I freak out.

I don't need to sit in the onion/bacon/salmon vapor of the person before me. And I'm just keeping it to food they ate, you know what can be worse.

Does anyone here have experience with zipcars? I'm sure this topic comes up. Does some wise guy stick their gum (or worse) on the steering wheel? Do they get fined or banned?

I really don't want to pick up bedbugs either. The public busses I grew up with had hard seating because of the hygiene issue. They couldn't stop the B.O. problem, so we fellow riders just lived with that.
 
I used to think so, but after understanding more about the current technology, I got more interested about the technical difficulties. It turned out to be more complicated than I first thought. See my post #80 about limitations of the sensors that the computer uses for its eyes.

First thing first. Car makers must have something working better than a careful driver (not an idiotic driver, mind you), before they've got to worry about public acceptance.

I work on software for a living. I see all kinds of bad software every day. You probably too. You know, that app that hangs, or your web page crashing. Things like that.

Bullet proof software is possible. It is costly and takes much longer to develop. We will see incredible improvement in self driving tech on a test basis. For the real world, it will take more time and a lot of money. And having seen the behind the scenes action of development, I'm honestly a bit terrified. I don't have the faith others have.
 
Hmmm. My apologies for coming late to this forum. I see the software issue has been discussed, and I pretty much agree with NW-Bound.

There's also a "big brother" issue to self driving which is also a bit disturbing, and I see that's discussed.

I guess I should have come earlier to the party!
 
Hmmm. My apologies for coming late to this forum. I see the software issue has been discussed, and I pretty much agree with NW-Bound.
I agree too, except when he said to build-in security later!! :facepalm: Dontchaknow that's why we're total screwed, security-wise, with just about everything nowadays?

Question... Does anyone know about a transponder proposal for inter-car communication? It would seem to me that all cars, not just those with automation, could send out alerts when the car has to swerve or hit the brakes (or maybe even long horn blasts, indicating rage...see other thread). Any automated cars would "hear" the alerts that came from the path ahead and signal the alarm to either the real or automated drivers in the area.
 
I spent quite a bit of time in my career working on flight critical software, and flight system design. Yes, the kind of software that flies people around in the commercial jetliners. Also the software for stuff that gets sent to war. It costs money, and you don't do it like people who write desktop application software.

I am sure that car developers are careful, but am afraid that in the rush to "beat the competition", they are going to cut corners. And then, the public, being so used to the attitude that says "Ah, just reboot it and it will be fine", will not realize that a deficiency in software or hardware will reboot them to the next life (if they believe in reincarnation that is). :)
 
I agree too, except when he said to build-in security later!! :facepalm: Dontchaknow that's why we're total screwed, security-wise, with just about everything nowadays?

Hey, the stuff I worked with is never interfaced to the Web. The moment you try to let the outside world in, you've opened a door.

When I see the basic problems are still being worked on, I don't think the Web connection security is what holding up the development.

And talking about sabotage, the other day I thought I saw something about the Lidar being jammable. Darn!

With the current "lane following" system, a bad kid can just go out to paint some new lane marks on the highway at night, and watch cars veering off into the bush. No, he can just lay down some yellow ribbons. So, me worrying about the Web?
 
This is where I freak out.

I don't need to sit in the onion/bacon/salmon vapor of the person before me. And I'm just keeping it to food they ate, you know what can be worse.

Does anyone here have experience with zipcars? I'm sure this topic comes up. Does some wise guy stick their gum (or worse) on the steering wheel? Do they get fined or banned?

I really don't want to pick up bedbugs either. The public busses I grew up with had hard seating because of the hygiene issue. They couldn't stop the B.O. problem, so we fellow riders just lived with that.
Will it be that different from buses and taxis? Millions of people use them everyday.
 
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