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So - now when are you gonna croak?
Old 02-07-2008, 10:38 AM   #1
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So - now when are you gonna croak?

1993 - I used 84 or so in my retirement calculations - at age 49 that was way off in the distance.

After 2000 - I had been using 86.3 or ORP's 85/86.

Today - I ran ORP Planner and it goes to 91. What gives - has mortality gotten that much better since I made it to age 64?

heh heh heh - any insurance cats out there with the 'new' mortality tables. I was going to party hearty - now I have to stretch some money to 91.
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Old 02-07-2008, 10:58 AM   #2
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the older you get increases the odds that you won't be dying young.
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Old 02-07-2008, 11:05 AM   #3
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1993 - I used 84 or so in my retirement calculations - at age 49 that was way off in the distance.

After 2000 - I had been using 86.3 or ORP's 85/86.

Today - I ran ORP Planner and it goes to 91. What gives - has mortality gotten that much better since I made it to age 64?

heh heh heh - any insurance cats out there with the 'new' mortality tables. I was going to party hearty - now I have to stretch some money to 91.
Not an insurance cat, but I read a lot of health stuff. IIRC, the theory is that the longer you live, the longer "they" think you will live. Something to do with...hmmm...if you don't die of some fatal disease or accident by the time you reach a particular age...say 65...then your odds of reaching 80 to 100 increase considerably.

We pulled the plug at 49, too. Never looked at the "expiration date" charts when we were developing our nestegg spreadsheet...looked at family history instead. Spreadsheet goes to 100.
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Old 02-07-2008, 11:13 AM   #4
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The expected ages are averages. As time passes, on any given day, some die and some don't. If you find yourself to be alive when you get up, you are automatically a survivor relative to the initial group so your life expectancy is greater than the original estimate (the left side of the bell cure has had dropouts). The timer gets reset.
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Old 02-07-2008, 11:52 AM   #5
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If you find yourself to be alive when you get up, you are automatically a survivor relative to the initial group so your life expectancy is greater than the original estimate (the left side of the bell cure has had dropouts).
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Old 02-07-2008, 12:10 PM   #6
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... so at 57 there is a 100% probabililty that I will live to at least 56 ...
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Old 02-07-2008, 12:41 PM   #7
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The Vanguard calculator says a 64 YO male has a 4% chance of making it to 96. 8% to 94.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/pla...ireContent.jsp

And yes, the number must go up as your age increases. It can never be less than your current age.

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Old 02-07-2008, 02:49 PM   #8
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If you find yourself to be alive when you get up.
What a coincidence! That happened to me just this morning!! I checked for tags tied to my toes, pinched myself and it hurt and my old, tired body crawled out of the sack yet one more time. Life is good and I'm going to enjoy today.......
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Old 02-07-2008, 03:11 PM   #9
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My grandpa had a saying: "Every day I wake up is a good day"...........
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Old 02-07-2008, 04:17 PM   #10
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My grandpa had a saying: "Every day I wake up is a good day"...........
That's a good thing! But when did the ORP Planner zing in an extra 6 years?

I used to fade into the sunset at 86. I tryed lying about my age and I'm still good for 91.

heh heh heh - .
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Old 02-07-2008, 07:59 PM   #11
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The minimum acceptable number from which to calculate the average age of death increases as you age.

Think about it this way. If you are now 64, you can't be one of the people who croaks at 60, 61, 62 or 63, right? The odds are 100% that you will not die before age 64.

Suppose you make it to 110. The odds are 100% that you will not die before age 100.

Let's say you become the oldest person living, at 130. Nobody else has made it to this age. The odds that you will die at 129 are 0%. (You're still alive, are'nt you?) The odds that you will live to be 130 are 100% (because you just did). The odds that you will survive till 131 are (unknown percentage) divided by 1 (the number of people who has reached 130 (i.e. you).
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Old 02-07-2008, 08:51 PM   #12
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I'm planning to live until I am old. Old Old Old Old Old. I figure that if I can retire early, the difference in planning for a long retirement and a super long retirement is pretty small. Better to have planned for the longer one in case I am lucky, whether in general or because of some future medical advances. Plus I have longevity on both sides of the family, so maybe that's in my favor.
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Old 02-07-2008, 09:16 PM   #13
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Speaking only for myself, I see no reason to live past 80.
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Old 02-07-2008, 09:26 PM   #14
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Man - I lied and told the calculator I was 50 again and it still takes me to 91.

And to think of all the tongue in cheek humor I got from 84.3 and 84.6 over the years.

91! 91? Now I have to think up a new set of jokes. ? Do the ladies at the Senior Center 'really' like peppermint candy?

heh heh heh -
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Old 02-07-2008, 09:57 PM   #15
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Speaking only for myself, I see no reason to live past 80.
I said the same about living past 30, when I was about 19 or so. Who would want to be that OLD?

Unless/until you are in your 80's, it is difficult to know how much satisfaction and meaning life may or may not bring to you at that age.
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Old 02-07-2008, 10:03 PM   #16
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sounds like survivorship bias to me.
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Old 02-07-2008, 10:14 PM   #17
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I said the same about living past 30, when I was about 19 or so. Who would want to be that OLD?

Unless/until you are in your 80's, it is difficult to know how much satisfaction and meaning life may or may not bring to you at that age.
I have inherited the arthritis (and carpal tunnel problems and ulnar nerve entrapment) and watched my mother 's problems with the resultant deterioration. It is difficult to imagine much satisfaction and meaning after a certain amount of pain and disability, especially when wanting to live alone.

We shall see.
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Old 02-07-2008, 11:36 PM   #18
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I have inherited the arthritis (and carpal tunnel problems and ulnar nerve entrapment) and watched my mother 's problems with the resultant deterioration. It is difficult to imagine much satisfaction and meaning after a certain amount of pain and disability, especially when wanting to live alone.

We shall see.
I am there with you. I already had a carpal tunnel reduction but the nerves were already damaged. Spinal disc disease. Already have had 4 surgeries on my lower back. My neck is now a mess and I will need surgery there or be paralyzed. My mother has macular degeration and is in assisted living. She lives alone as my father passed away a few years ago from heart disease...which is on both sides of the family.

My mother has a pace maker, is legally blind, is functionally blind in one eye and about 80% in the other. She nearly died twice this past Fall from post surgical septicemia. She has had numerous strokes and has arthritis. She still writes poetry and competes in Trivia Contests with other Nursing Homes. She has come in second several times. She is happy to be alive despite her problems but she knows that at 85 she is on borrowed time as she has lived longer than every one else in her family.

I would like to think I will be as productive and adjusted as she seems to be at that age. But, I doubt I will live that long. And if I do, it will be with a deteriorated body and chronic pain. I do what I can but genetics often win over everything else.

My financial plan stops at 92...no real reason other than it was an even number on my spreadsheet and I figured it was all academic anyway. My dad made it to 81 but he was a walking miracle. Three different heart bypass operations, pacemaker and loss of about 1/3 of his heart muscle but he still cut his own grass and volunteered at a local hospital 8 hours a day 3 days a week.

Time will tell. Hey, I made it this far and there were plenty of times I could have met my Maker.
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Old 02-08-2008, 07:10 AM   #19
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My spreadsheets go to 100 and I'm a pessimist.
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Old 02-08-2008, 07:36 AM   #20
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UncleMick,
I'll meet you in Kansas City on your 100th birthday. Buy you a drink. You'll recognize me, cause "I'll be standing on the corner of 12th street and Vine with a bottle of wine."

Don't believe that lying ORP. It's like the market soothsayers. The market went up today because blah, blah, blah. They make it up as they go along. You ain't old until you can't drive at nite. You still can, right?
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