Some truth to people who think we can be 100% renewable

[ERD50]

4-Jan-2018
Hawaiian Electric Industries Announces ‘Mind-Blowing’ Solar-Plus-Storage Contracts
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/hawaiian-electric-industries-announces-mind-blowing-solar-plus-storage-cont
“It’s hard to overstate the scale of this announcement.”

I'll check this out in more detail later, but if I had a nickel for every time one of these green sites described something, anything, as a "break through" or some other hyper-ventilated adjective, I'd be a very rich man. It's actually very,very easy for them to "overstate the scale of this announcement" - they do it all the time.

-ERD50

 

[catii]

Living in Hawaii for the past 28 years, I've seen a number of these energy projects come & go -- mostly go. And the price for utility power still remains over $.30/kWh, which is why I have 10.2 kW fo solar PV on my second-story roof, & pay $18 for the basic utility connect charge.

 

[NW-Bound]

10c/kWh is a pretty good price for Hawaii, where residential users pay an average of 33c/kWh.

That 10c is still expensive compared to the wholesale price of 3c/kWh to 5c/kWh in the mainland, where the retail price is around 12c or less in off-peak hours.

 

[ERD50]

4-Jan-2018
Hawaiian Electric Industries Announces ‘Mind-Blowing’ Solar-Plus-Storage Contracts
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/hawaiian-electric-industries-announces-mind-blowing-solar-plus-storage-cont
“It’s hard to overstate the scale of this announcement.”

OK, so this is good, nice to see progress in these areas, but let's add a bit of perspective.

The projects, which now await regulatory approval, would add 262 megawatts of solar and 1,048 megawatt-hours of storage distributed over three islands.

So the peak solar output is ~ 1/3rd of a typical fossil fuel plant which can pretty much run 24/7, and the solar+storage provides about 4 hours storage. At this point, that should be helpful. But it tends to fall apart when we put it in terms of this thread and 100% renewables.

Four hours storage won't get you through a hurricane event. So you either add LOTS of storage, or (probably more cost effectively) keep a LOT of fossil fuel generators online, even if they are only used occasionally. But you still need to pass their cost on to the consumer. So those $0.08/kWh prices do not extrapolate out to the higher levels of RE, which require backup.

As costs come down, we will see RE able to push further and further into the mainstream. But 4 hours is not 48 hours (let alone a weeks worth, 168 hours), and 12x improvements are a long way off.

It does appear to be good, but it should not be overstated.

.... It's actually very,very easy for them to "overstate the scale of this announcement" - they do it all the time.

-ERD50

There is another issue with Hawaii - as I understand it, they take in crude oil, refine it for jet fuel to refuel all those planes that land there, and use the by products to generate electricity. If Hawaii is 100% RE, is it cost effective to ship in jet fuel?

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

OK, so this is good, nice to see progress in these areas, but let's add a bit of perspective.

So the peak solar output is ~ 1/3rd of a typical fossil fuel plant which can pretty much run 24/7, and the solar+storage provides about 4 hours storage. At this point, that should be helpful. But it tends to fall apart when we put it in terms of this thread and 100% renewables.

Four hours storage won't get you through a hurricane event. So you either add LOTS of storage, or (probably more cost effectively) keep a LOT of fossil fuel generators online, even if they are only used occasionally. But you still need to pass their cost on to the consumer. So those $0.08/kWh prices do not extrapolate out to the higher levels of RE, which require backup.

As costs come down, we will see RE able to push further and further into the mainstream. But 4 hours is not 48 hours (let alone a weeks worth, 168 hours), and 12x improvements are a long way off...

Increasing RE will bring the total cost down, up to a certain point. But going to 100% will require a lot of expensive energy storage. Or keeping a lot of thermal generators sitting around for the few days of the year when the weather does not cooperate. And that's why Germany is still getting 37% of its electricity from coal.

Hawaii may be able to do better, as it does not have problems with winter weather. But 100% RE is going to be tough, unless you are willing to put up with power outage occasionally. Like a few days each year in places like Hawaii?

 

[eroscott]

Perhaps this has been discussed but there was the other solar/battery project on Kauai that looks like it is quite a savings. Batteries needed to supply it during the evening as they already had solar during the day to cover 90% of their needs.

Oct 2, 2017
Title: Tesla's solar and battery project in Hawaii: we do the math
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...-and-battery-project-in-hawaii-we-do-the-math

Note that while the solar array is frequently referred to as being 13 MW (AC basis), the Kauai Island Utility Cooperative confirmed the 17 MW (DC basis) figure.

Solid savings

Tesla has contracted with the Kauai Island Utility Cooperative to provide up to 52 MWh of electricity to the grid every evening. The utility has agreed to pay a flat rate of 13.9 cents/kWh for this stored sunlight, about a 10-percent discount to the price they pay for power from diesel generators.

(The island will still need to burn diesel during peak electricity periods - it just won't need to burn as much. Plus, it’s occasionally cloudy and rainy, even in Hawaii.)

As for why Tesla can’t sell electricity directly to the grid during the day, Kauai’s grid simply can’t absorb any more solar: at midday, photovoltaics can already produce upwards of 90 percent of the island’s needs.

 

[catii]

There is another issue with Hawaii - as I understand it, they take in crude oil, refine it for jet fuel to refuel all those planes that land there, and use the by products to generate electricity. If Hawaii is 100% RE, is it cost effective to ship in jet fuel?

Not quite right. Our refineries do bring in crude oil, but only a small part of it is converted to AV-gas or JP4; the rest gets converted to gasoline & other products. Electricity is mostly generated from coal & burning of trash, not from crude oil.


And although Hawaii talks about being "100% renewable by 2045," that's referring to electricity generation, NOT gasoline for cars or JP4 for aircraft. We're well over 30% right now, but as others have mentioned, the state's ability to store energy, even overnight, is far less than that.

 

[NW-Bound]

...The island will still need to burn diesel during peak electricity periods - it just won't need to burn as much. Plus, it’s occasionally cloudy and rainy, even in Hawaii.

Yes. That has been my point. They still need to maintain diesel generators. And the generators will have to be sufficient to provide near 100% capacity, if it is called for. And so, all the non-RE equipment still has to be there. What they will save is the operating cost, meaning the diesel fuel for most days with nice weather.

Some savings will result with RE, no doubt about it. But don't be so ready to decommission old equipment. Germany knows all about this by now.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Not quite right. Our refineries do bring in crude oil, but only a small part of it is converted to AV-gas or JP4; the rest gets converted to gasoline & other products. Electricity is mostly generated from coal & burning of trash, not from crude oil.


And although Hawaii talks about being "100% renewable by 2045," that's referring to electricity generation, NOT gasoline for cars or JP4 for aircraft. We're well over 30% right now, but as others have mentioned, the state's ability to store energy, even overnight, is far less than that.

Do you have a high percentage of cars and buses running on electric ?

 

[Texas Proud]

We just got back from Kauai and I would say that there are a LOT of solar panels all over the place... most larger locations have them...


And we say a few electric cars... this seems to be a perfect location for an electric as there is almost no way you can drive over 100 miles in a day....


Still had to use AC as the temp was higher than what we wanted in the room and the humidity was high...

 

[NW-Bound]

Hawaii is not a bad place to have more solar power, as the fuel has to be imported. Most of its power comes from diesel generators. Coal provided some power, but Hawaii has only one coal-burning power plant left.

It's very tough to be 100% RE, but if you can get power from solar during the daylight hours to charge your car or run your AC, then why not, particularly as solar panels are so cheap now? Save the diesel fuel for night use.

 

[eroscott]

Idaho sets record low solar price as it starts on shift to 100pct renewables | RenewEconomy
https://reneweconomy.com.au/idaho-s...t-starts-on-shift-to-100pct-renewables-38566/

 

[Totoro]

2 cents .. wow

 

[NW-Bound]

Solar energy is indeed very cheap and abundant, when the sun shines. I have not yet wired my solar system to the home power panel, because I want to wait till I get back from my long travel coming up soon. Right now, I run an extension cord to the electric water heater, and that is not enough to use up the energy. My batteries are full and the charge controllers shut down.

But, but, but, what does one do when the sun does not shine? What has Germany been able to do?

 

[kgtest]

Hawaii is not a bad place to have more solar power, as the fuel has to be imported. Most of its power comes from diesel generators. Coal provided some power, but Hawaii has only one coal-burning power plant left.

It's very tough to be 100% RE, but if you can get power from solar during the daylight hours to charge your car or run your AC, then why not, particularly as solar panels are so cheap now? Save the diesel fuel for night use.

Lol, when I lived on Hawaii people didn't use fuel. BBQ's in the park via coal, never used the A/C...not sure about hot showers but there were a lot of folks who hitchhiked down or up Mt Haleakala so they didn't even need petrol The A/C didn't work in our honda beach cruiser and we didn't even care. When we sold it nobody else seemed to care that looked at it and it sold quick lol.

 

[Winemaker]

Lol, when I lived on Hawaii people didn't use fuel. BBQ's in the park via coal, never used the A/C...not sure about hot showers but there were a lot of folks who hitchhiked down or up Mt Haleakala so they didn't even need petrol The A/C didn't work in our honda beach cruiser and we didn't even care. When we sold it nobody else seemed to care that looked at it and it sold quick lol.

The house DW, DD, DSIL and I rented in Kona had a solar water heater for bathing/dishwashing. DW showered first at 4:30 pm after we got back from hiking, snorkeling or touring. She never had any hot water, so we used the emergency electric backup after day 3. That's when I started to get a warm shower, after everyone else, and we had 2 bathroomss.

 

[WestUniversity]

Truth still exists today, as it always has. But the truth is getting much harder to identify.

+1

 

[Midpack]

There's a shell game aspect to all this, sorta like EV owners who proudly claim their cars are "zero emissions." Some are even badged "zero emissions" - nonsense.

• There are many upsides to transitioning the state to 100% renewable energy. You can likely name many of the upsides including pollution reduction, reduction in carbon emission, less reliant on a finite commodity, etc. However, there are also significant costs, hindrances, and downsides associated with California transitioning to 100% renewable energy.
• California currently imports about 33% of its electricity from outside of the state. Of that 33%, 6% is from coal. This is compared to the 25% of energy imported into California in 2010 from outside states and it's clear California is headed in the wrong direction in this category.
• California is also the third largest oil and gas producing state, despite what Californians may tell you.
• The oil and gas industry supports approximately 456,000 jobs in California, which equals $38 billion in Californian's pockets from well-paying oil and gas jobs and accounts for 3.4% of the states GDP. In addition, California receives a kick back for all oil produced in the state, equaling $21 billion in revenue.

• Not to mention the land area required for solar and wind as compared to conventional power plants.
• And the far greater infrastructure costs unless users are willing to endure outages when wind and sun don't meet demand.
• And net metering should stop NOW as it's clearly 'unsustainable.'

https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevor...ercent-renewable-energy-by-2045/#10757b6e570f

 

[eroscott]

Title: The Third Phase of Clean Energy Will Be the Most Disruptive Yet
The Third Phase of Clean Energy Will Be the Most Disruptive Yet – Ramez Naam

"tl;dr: Building new solar, wind, and storage is about to be cheaper than operating existing coal and gas power plants. That will change everything."

 

[eroscott]

There's a shell game aspect to all this, sorta like EV owners who proudly claim their cars are "zero emissions." Some are even badged "zero emissions" - nonsense.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevor...ercent-renewable-energy-by-2045/#10757b6e570f

Re: EV
Here is more accurately researched and trustworthy information
https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html

 

[Midpack]

Re: EV
Here is more accurately researched and trustworthy information
https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html

Thanks, good article. I wasn't implying EV's aren't cleaner more often than not (unless maybe for exclusively coal power plant regions?), only that the number of EV's that are zero emissions are trivially small. Those claims and badges work against EV advocates.

We're getting better, as usual two steps forward and one step backward, with "exaggerations" and 'lies by omission' from proponents and opponents clouding public understanding. It's no wonder most people don't know what to believe...self included.

 

[mistershankly]

Right now, I run an extension cord to the electric water heater, and that is not enough to use up the energy. My batteries are full and the charge controllers shut down.

I've often considered adding batteries to our solar panel system. How did you choose which ones to install? Tesla has the Powerwall but I think the cost is at a premium because of the name on it. Installation also seems to be a considerable amount of the total cost. Any insight on how you chose and any things to look out for once the batteries are installed would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance!

 

[ziggy29]

I have a plug in hybrid (2018 Prius Prime) and while I'm not delusioned into thinking it has ZERO environmental footprint when running in EV mode, when you have the option to choose renewable "green" power (if you trust their word that your election is feeding that greener power into the grid) the electricity your car uses basically generates no CO2 except in a very small, abstract way. There are, of course, still environmental impacts of generating solar, wind and small scale hydro power.

But yes, if someone has a Tesla and says they are "zero emissions" but they are connecting to a grid using mostly coal, it's not really true. It's still probably better than burning gasoline since electric engines are MUCH more efficient at generating power, but people are allowing themselves to be deluded.

 

[NW-Bound]

I've often considered adding batteries to our solar panel system. How did you choose which ones to install? Tesla has the Powerwall but I think the cost is at a premium because of the name on it. Installation also seems to be a considerable amount of the total cost. Any insight on how you chose and any things to look out for once the batteries are installed would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance!

It is a DIY solar system.

I have 5.5 kW of solar panels feeding 22 kWh of lithium battery storage. The lithium batteries are of the LiFePO4 type (lithium iron phosphate), also called LFP (lithium ferro phosphate).

I am still working on a BMS (battery management system), which is always needed with any lithium battery to prevent overcharging/overdischarging, which will ruin the battery. When abused, the LFP type is not likely to explode and catch fire like the other lithium types such as used in the Tesla cars, cell phones, and laptops, but I do not want any risk of ruining these expensive batteries.

My BMS will have 2 layers of redundancy for security. This is so that it will take multiple undetected failures in the BMS, in addition to a failure in one of the charge controllers )overcharging) or a failure of one of the inverters (overdischarging) to cause damage to the battery.

Sorry for the long description. This is a multi-year project to keep myself busy and entertained.

PS. Currently, I am babysitting the system while it is running. It will be completely turned off when I go on travel next week. Eventually, it will take care of itself and self-monitors when I complete the design.

 

[eroscott]

But yes, if someone has a Tesla and says they are "zero emissions" but they are connecting to a grid using mostly coal, it's not really true. It's still probably better than burning gasoline since electric engines are MUCH more efficient at generating power, but people are allowing themselves to be deluded.

This is all blown out of proportion with incomplete references. It was Nissan's slogan. See: https://www.google.com/search?q=nissan+zero+emission

Upstream I pointed out state by state graphics of how electricity is made and has changed over the decades in each state. Some dramatic. Very regional.
Here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...tricity-generation-changed-in-your-state.html