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Old 01-04-2019, 06:43 PM   #301
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Originally Posted by eroscott View Post
4-Jan-2018
Hawaiian Electric Industries Announces ‘Mind-Blowing’ Solar-Plus-Storage Contracts
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/hawaiian-electric-industries-announces-mind-blowing-solar-plus-storage-cont
“It’s hard to overstate the scale of this announcement.”
I'll check this out in more detail later, but if I had a nickel for every time one of these green sites described something, anything, as a "break through" or some other hyper-ventilated adjective, I'd be a very rich man. It's actually very,very easy for them to "overstate the scale of this announcement" - they do it all the time.

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Old 01-04-2019, 07:00 PM   #302
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Living in Hawaii for the past 28 years, I've seen a number of these energy projects come & go -- mostly go. And the price for utility power still remains over $.30/kWh, which is why I have 10.2 kW fo solar PV on my second-story roof, & pay $18 for the basic utility connect charge.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:04 PM   #303
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10c/kWh is a pretty good price for Hawaii, where residential users pay an average of 33c/kWh.

That 10c is still expensive compared to the wholesale price of 3c/kWh to 5c/kWh in the mainland, where the retail price is around 12c or less in off-peak hours.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:21 PM   #304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eroscott View Post
4-Jan-2018
Hawaiian Electric Industries Announces ‘Mind-Blowing’ Solar-Plus-Storage Contracts
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/hawaiian-electric-industries-announces-mind-blowing-solar-plus-storage-cont
“It’s hard to overstate the scale of this announcement.”
OK, so this is good, nice to see progress in these areas, but let's add a bit of perspective.

Quote:
The projects, which now await regulatory approval, would add 262 megawatts of solar and 1,048 megawatt-hours of storage distributed over three islands.
So the peak solar output is ~ 1/3rd of a typical fossil fuel plant which can pretty much run 24/7, and the solar+storage provides about 4 hours storage. At this point, that should be helpful. But it tends to fall apart when we put it in terms of this thread and 100% renewables.

Four hours storage won't get you through a hurricane event. So you either add LOTS of storage, or (probably more cost effectively) keep a LOT of fossil fuel generators online, even if they are only used occasionally. But you still need to pass their cost on to the consumer. So those $0.08/kWh prices do not extrapolate out to the higher levels of RE, which require backup.

As costs come down, we will see RE able to push further and further into the mainstream. But 4 hours is not 48 hours (let alone a weeks worth, 168 hours), and 12x improvements are a long way off.

It does appear to be good, but it should not be overstated.

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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
.... It's actually very,very easy for them to "overstate the scale of this announcement" - they do it all the time.

-ERD50
There is another issue with Hawaii - as I understand it, they take in crude oil, refine it for jet fuel to refuel all those planes that land there, and use the by products to generate electricity. If Hawaii is 100% RE, is it cost effective to ship in jet fuel?

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Old 01-04-2019, 07:34 PM   #305
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OK, so this is good, nice to see progress in these areas, but let's add a bit of perspective.

So the peak solar output is ~ 1/3rd of a typical fossil fuel plant which can pretty much run 24/7, and the solar+storage provides about 4 hours storage. At this point, that should be helpful. But it tends to fall apart when we put it in terms of this thread and 100% renewables.

Four hours storage won't get you through a hurricane event. So you either add LOTS of storage, or (probably more cost effectively) keep a LOT of fossil fuel generators online, even if they are only used occasionally. But you still need to pass their cost on to the consumer. So those $0.08/kWh prices do not extrapolate out to the higher levels of RE, which require backup.

As costs come down, we will see RE able to push further and further into the mainstream. But 4 hours is not 48 hours (let alone a weeks worth, 168 hours), and 12x improvements are a long way off...
Increasing RE will bring the total cost down, up to a certain point. But going to 100% will require a lot of expensive energy storage. Or keeping a lot of thermal generators sitting around for the few days of the year when the weather does not cooperate. And that's why Germany is still getting 37% of its electricity from coal.

Hawaii may be able to do better, as it does not have problems with winter weather. But 100% RE is going to be tough, unless you are willing to put up with power outage occasionally. Like a few days each year in places like Hawaii?
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:36 PM   #306
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Perhaps this has been discussed but there was the other solar/battery project on Kauai that looks like it is quite a savings. Batteries needed to supply it during the evening as they already had solar during the day to cover 90% of their needs.

Oct 2, 2017
Title: Tesla's solar and battery project in Hawaii: we do the math
https://www.greencarreports.com/news...we-do-the-math

Quote:
Note that while the solar array is frequently referred to as being 13 MW (AC basis), the Kauai Island Utility Cooperative confirmed the 17 MW (DC basis) figure.

Solid savings

Tesla has contracted with the Kauai Island Utility Cooperative to provide up to 52 MWh of electricity to the grid every evening. The utility has agreed to pay a flat rate of 13.9 cents/kWh for this stored sunlight, about a 10-percent discount to the price they pay for power from diesel generators.

(The island will still need to burn diesel during peak electricity periods - it just won't need to burn as much. Plus, it’s occasionally cloudy and rainy, even in Hawaii.)

As for why Tesla can’t sell electricity directly to the grid during the day, Kauai’s grid simply can’t absorb any more solar: at midday, photovoltaics can already produce upwards of 90 percent of the island’s needs.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:42 PM   #307
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There is another issue with Hawaii - as I understand it, they take in crude oil, refine it for jet fuel to refuel all those planes that land there, and use the by products to generate electricity. If Hawaii is 100% RE, is it cost effective to ship in jet fuel?
Not quite right. Our refineries do bring in crude oil, but only a small part of it is converted to AV-gas or JP4; the rest gets converted to gasoline & other products. Electricity is mostly generated from coal & burning of trash, not from crude oil.


And although Hawaii talks about being "100% renewable by 2045," that's referring to electricity generation, NOT gasoline for cars or JP4 for aircraft. We're well over 30% right now, but as others have mentioned, the state's ability to store energy, even overnight, is far less than that.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:55 PM   #308
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...The island will still need to burn diesel during peak electricity periods - it just won't need to burn as much. Plus, itís occasionally cloudy and rainy, even in Hawaii.
Yes. That has been my point. They still need to maintain diesel generators. And the generators will have to be sufficient to provide near 100% capacity, if it is called for. And so, all the non-RE equipment still has to be there. What they will save is the operating cost, meaning the diesel fuel for most days with nice weather.

Some savings will result with RE, no doubt about it. But don't be so ready to decommission old equipment. Germany knows all about this by now.
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Old 01-04-2019, 09:03 PM   #309
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Not quite right. Our refineries do bring in crude oil, but only a small part of it is converted to AV-gas or JP4; the rest gets converted to gasoline & other products. Electricity is mostly generated from coal & burning of trash, not from crude oil.


And although Hawaii talks about being "100% renewable by 2045," that's referring to electricity generation, NOT gasoline for cars or JP4 for aircraft. We're well over 30% right now, but as others have mentioned, the state's ability to store energy, even overnight, is far less than that.
Do you have a high percentage of cars and buses running on electric ?
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Old 01-12-2019, 02:22 PM   #310
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We just got back from Kauai and I would say that there are a LOT of solar panels all over the place... most larger locations have them...


And we say a few electric cars... this seems to be a perfect location for an electric as there is almost no way you can drive over 100 miles in a day....


Still had to use AC as the temp was higher than what we wanted in the room and the humidity was high...
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Old 01-12-2019, 05:05 PM   #311
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Hawaii is not a bad place to have more solar power, as the fuel has to be imported. Most of its power comes from diesel generators. Coal provided some power, but Hawaii has only one coal-burning power plant left.

It's very tough to be 100% RE, but if you can get power from solar during the daylight hours to charge your car or run your AC, then why not, particularly as solar panels are so cheap now? Save the diesel fuel for night use.
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