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Old 12-05-2018, 11:32 AM   #21
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To put the battery storage issue in perspective, several years ago Bill Gates noted that all the batteries in existence at the time would provide enough storage to meet the world demand (then) for 10 minutes. But I couldn't find a supporting link, presumably out of date anyway.

Maybe a better illustration:

Quote:
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average American home consumes 901 kilowatt-hours per month, or approximately 30 kilowatt-hours per day.

For example, a 400 amp-hour battery can supply 4 amperes of current for 100 hours.

A battery bank designed to power an average American household for three days would need to supply 90 kilowatt-hours of energy. The battery from the previous example can supply 2.4 kilowatt-hours, so this system would need 38 batteries. In reality, several more batteries would be needed to account for battery imperfections and for power consumed by the inverter, which is a device needed to convert direct-current battery power to the alternating current needed by a household electrical system.
I didn't search for comparisons (correction welcome), but the first Google hit I found for a 400ah battery was one on sale for $679 each. 38x$679=$26,000 for the average US household. If the outage lasted more than 3 days, likely some places, unlikely others - zero electricity.

https://homeguides.sfgate.com/how-bi...-13277282.html
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:40 AM   #22
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I'm going to buck the trend and be an optimist here.

Sure, we are using coal today and will continue to for some time. Ditto oil and gas.

But not forever. There are huge advances being made in all sorts of great technologies. Solar and wind are now about at parity with other sources, and new plants are being built as fast as the solar panels and wind generator blades can be produced. Battery technology continues to incrementally improve, and the more forward-thinking power companies are dabbling with storage technologies. I just read an article today about advances in fusion technology.

We WILL get to a renewable world. I think it's as short-sighted to argue that we shouldn't support moving to renewable sources, as it is to argue that it has to happen over night. Maybe we should all just agree to doing the best we can with the technology we have today, while supporting new options as they become available.
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:48 AM   #23
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I assume you mean "coal plants, and nat gas peaking plants"? AFAIK, there are no coal peaking plants.

But it still makes no sense to me. As we move to renewables, which mostly are intermittent, and as we drop baseload power, the need for peaking increases, doesn't it?
Maybe I should have said "reliable availability power" as this category can also include nukes.

IIRC The Economist article said the need would diminish, but the point is the same: these plants will be needed and must be paid for.

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I think raising the kWh price is the only way to recover the costs. Am I missing something? ...
Well, Econ 101 tells us that if a resource is mispriced it will be misused. This gets particularly sticky with resources that involve very high fixed costs.

So it may be better economics for governments aka taxpayers to pay enough of the cost that the published KWH cost is one that results in good decisions as to when to use, etc. IIRC that was another point in the article but I don't remember the details.

My memory of the article is mainly the realization that the usual means of cost recovery may not make economic sense in the future. I never thought of that before.
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:53 AM   #24
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Yep, coal, energy source of the future.
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..........I think we have our first "smart switch" customer! Unless he has a better (reality-based) idea? Hint: more nukes! ..........-ERD50
This is brilliant. Solve the energy problem with a political enemies list.
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Old 12-05-2018, 12:11 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
To put the battery storage issue in perspective, several years ago Bill Gates noted that all the batteries in existence at the time would provide enough storage to meet the demand (then) for 10 minutes. But I couldn't find a supporting link, presumably out of date anyway.

Maybe a better illustration:

I didn't search for comparisons (correction welcome), but the first Google hit I found for a 400ah battery was one on sale for $679 each. 38x$679=$26,000 for the average US household. If the outage lasted more than 3 days, likely some places, unlikely others - zero electricity.

https://homeguides.sfgate.com/how-bi...-13277282.html
You are mixing terms. Amp-hours cannot be compared to kilowatt-hours without knowing the voltage of the battery. Watts are Amps x Volts. The linked article did appear to keep this straight though.

So they are saying that for 3 days, you need ~ 90 kWh, and the battery they mention is 400 AH, at 6 volts, for 2.4 kWh, so therefore 38 are needed. That assumes you can actually discharge it that far and get a good lifespan from it.

But you are probably in the ballpark - we hear numbers of Lion batteries reaching ~ $200/kWh? So $200 * 90 - $18,000, plus the electronics.

-ERD50
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Old 12-05-2018, 12:27 PM   #26
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I'm going to buck the trend and be an optimist here. ...
I'm neither an optimist nor a pessimist, I'm a realist. You just can't break the laws of physics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptTom View Post
...
Sure, we are using coal today and will continue to for some time. Ditto oil and gas.

But not forever. ...
And of course, I never said "forever".

Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptTom View Post
.... There are huge advances being made in all sorts of great technologies. Solar and wind are now about at parity with other sources, ....
See my earlier comment on how that 'parity' cost is taken out of context.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptTom View Post
.... . Battery technology continues to incrementally improve, and the more forward-thinking power companies are dabbling with storage technologies. I just read an article today about advances in fusion technology.
... .
Show me some storage tech that has some reasonable path towards supporting 100% renewable across all the grids in the US in the next 30 years. I'm very interested in this stuff, I follow it closely, and discuss it on other forums with experts in the field. Show me.

Fusion is way out there, maybe never, and there will be opponents. I'd say other advanced fission reactors are more likely, but still questionable as far as acceptance/implementation.

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... We WILL get to a renewable world. I think it's as short-sighted to argue that we shouldn't support moving to renewable sources, as it is to argue that it has to happen over night. Maybe we should all just agree to doing the best we can with the technology we have today, while supporting new options as they become available.
Of course. But that is not only not overnight, it is not in 30 years either. The grid is a big thing, it won't change quickly, even if we have a breakthrough in 10 years. And breakthroughs are unlikely, modern science has a much better understanding of things, so 'surprises' are fewer and further between.


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Originally Posted by travelover View Post
This is brilliant. Solve the energy problem with a political enemies list.
I'm not sure how 'political enemies' fits into that, but tell me, what is your (reality-based) proposal?

-ERD50
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Old 12-05-2018, 01:59 PM   #27
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Show me some storage tech that has some reasonable path towards supporting 100% renewable across all the grids in the US in the next 30 years. I'm very interested in this stuff, I follow it closely, and discuss it on other forums with experts in the field. Show me.

Wish granted?


http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/j...SStatesWWS.pdf


With a handy map:
Our 100% Clean Energy Vision - The Solutions Project
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Old 12-05-2018, 02:11 PM   #28
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The sun does not shine 24 hours/day. This effect is called sunrise/sunset. There's winter. This is called "season". And there's random variation for the same day of the year. This effect is called "weather".

Weather and day/night cycle are approaching 'economically solved' status in most of the world's regions. The recent Lazard report has some numbers showing that:
https://www.lazard.com/media/450774/...-40-vfinal.pdf


Seasons remain a tough one, especially if one relies and wind & solar.
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Old 12-05-2018, 02:18 PM   #29
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Weather and day/night cycle are approaching 'economically solved' status in most of the world's regions. The recent Lazard report has some numbers showing that:
https://www.lazard.com/media/450774/...-40-vfinal.pdf


Seasons remain a tough one, especially if one relies and wind & solar.
I'll take a look at your links later, I gotta run. But off the top of my head, I recall a rebuttal to the Jacobson paper.

I'm skeptical, as I said, I keep up on this, have discussions with experts on technical forums. I'll read your links with an open mind, but I'll be very surprised if there is any 'there' there. At least if we are talking near 100% RE in the next 20~30 years.

-ERD50
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Old 12-05-2018, 02:45 PM   #30
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..............
I'm not sure how 'political enemies' fits into that, but tell me, what is your (reality-based) proposal?-ERD50
I don't think that there is a silver bullet, but rather a series of actions that need to be done in coordination, worldwide. The first step is a recognition that we are not dealing with "a Chinese hoax" and that an honest, all hands approach is necessary. We went into WWII flying prop planes and came out with jets and nuclear power. A similar urgent effort could advance energy production, management and reduce energy use.
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Old 12-05-2018, 02:48 PM   #31
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BTW, there was an article saying the Admin is looking at cutting all subsidies for EV and renewables...


I have no problem with this as a number of people on this board have said they would buy their own solar anyhow... which is exactly what should happen over time...
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Old 12-05-2018, 02:58 PM   #32
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I'm going to buck the trend and be an optimist here.

Sure, we are using coal today and will continue to for some time. Ditto oil and gas.

But not forever. There are huge advances being made in all sorts of great technologies. Solar and wind are now about at parity with other sources, and new plants are being built as fast as the solar panels and wind generator blades can be produced. Battery technology continues to incrementally improve, and the more forward-thinking power companies are dabbling with storage technologies. I just read an article today about advances in fusion technology.

We WILL get to a renewable world. I think it's as short-sighted to argue that we shouldn't support moving to renewable sources, as it is to argue that it has to happen over night. Maybe we should all just agree to doing the best we can with the technology we have today, while supporting new options as they become available.
I think we’re mostly in agreement, but 100% renewables aren’t ‘right around the corner’ as some advocates would have us believe. And there’s some sleight of hand from both sides that needs to be called out. For me it’s utilities buying back excess power from private homes, that’s not scalable and it should stop sooner rather than later IMO. But we’ve beat that issue to death...
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Old 12-05-2018, 02:59 PM   #33
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Yes, you and I and others know. It would be like the illustration below.

But, I shudder to think of what happens when the world runs out. And run out we will, as it is just a matter of time. I hope our grand or great-grand-children figure out the technology to make something out of thin air or seawater.

Maybe we can extract the energy that is tied up in the Cryptocurrencies?
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Old 12-05-2018, 03:00 PM   #34
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[QUOTE=Totoro;2152524]Wish granted?


http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/j...SStatesWWS.pdf
/QUOTE]


Here is a quick summary, certainly extremely skimmed and others will claim 'unfairly characterized'.


We will generate lots of electricity from photovoltaic and wind turbines. We will convert the excess electricity to hydrogen, and use that as a fuel source for things like ships. Everything else runs on batteries. Convert most transportation to public electric powered mass transit. Convert over the road freight to electric trains.


And perhaps, most importantly, immediately:


Quote:
Introduce a Public Benefit Funds (PBF) program for energy efficiency. Fund the program with a non-bypassable charge on consumers’ electricity bills for distribution services. These funds generate capital that sponsor energy efficiency programs, and research and development related to clean energy technologies and training.
This will generate revenue to continue funding the academic paper production of thought studies like this paper.
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Old 12-05-2018, 04:20 PM   #35
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More a pipeline shortage that a NatGas shortage
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...low-zero-texas
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Old 12-05-2018, 04:54 PM   #36
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Weather and day/night cycle are approaching 'economically solved' status in most of the world's regions. The recent Lazard report has some numbers showing that:
https://www.lazard.com/media/450774/...-40-vfinal.pdf


Seasons remain a tough one, especially if one relies and wind & solar.
Well, that's a 60 page document that seems to be focused on costs of short term storage to help utilities manage their grids. Maybe I missed it, I got through the first ~ 8 pages, then did searching on "hour" and "day", and I only saw some refs to 4 hours of storage. That's a short night!

Throw in a few cloudy, low wind days, and you are talking some long 'nights'. Before we even get to the seasonal issues.

Sounds a lot more like " peak shaving and demand charge reduction" (which appears throughout the document), than anything related to the thread topic of getting to 100% renewable, or some of the legislation being pushed to get to X% by 20YY year.

If I missed it, please enlighten.

Yes, "Seasons remain a tough one". That's important, many of us live in a 4-season climate.

Solution?


Have not had time to review the other paper yet.

-ERD50
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Old 12-05-2018, 05:03 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50
..............
I'm not sure how 'political enemies' fits into that, but tell me, what is your (reality-based) proposal?-ERD50
I don't think that there is a silver bullet, but rather a series of actions that need to be done in coordination, worldwide. The first step is a recognition that we are not dealing with "a Chinese hoax" and that an honest, all hands approach is necessary. We went into WWII flying prop planes and came out with jets and nuclear power. A similar urgent effort could advance energy production, management and reduce energy use.
Was there an answer in there somewhere?

I'm not sure what a "Chinese hoax" has to do with the question. We were not questioning the motivation or if we should do it (though we should, but it is a separate question), we were asking how we could do it.

OK, no silver bullet - agreed.

What series of actions? Again, what is your (reality-based) proposal to get to 100% RE?

-ERD50
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Old 12-05-2018, 05:18 PM   #38
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When one of my engineering society journals did a technology forecast for renewables and reducing greenhouse gases, they used the word "miracles" instead of technological advances.
This response to the hyped miracles sounded pretty realistic:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/env...n-technologies
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Old 12-05-2018, 05:22 PM   #39
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As my mom used to say, wish in one hand and pee in the other, and see which one fills first.

I WANT there to be a sustainable solution, but it not here yet. We have resources and time to find one. We have enough coal for over 100 years. Nuclear has no carbon foot print (well, actually it does, but it is relatively small).

I guess my point is, there is time, and energy to get us there. Artificial dead lines are nothing but political.
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Old 12-05-2018, 05:24 PM   #40
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I love solar energy and lithium battery, but have tried to point out in the past that we are still a long way from being 100% RE. Solar electricity is so easily produced and cheap, but there's still no way to stockpile it for nightly use, let alone several days without the sun.

Here's an example again....

The Tesla Model 3 car has a 75 kWh battery. The energy it stores is, well, 75 kWh, or 270 MJ (mega Joules). A gallon of propane has the energy of 96.5 MJ. So, the Tesla battery is equivalent to 2.8 gal. That's less than what is stored inside a common BBQ propane tank.....

.
Something feels off here - Range of the Tesla3 with 75 battery is claimed to be about 310 miles. Would a car like the Tesla 3 get 100mpg on propane? is it that electric use is more efficient than propane use?

How about storing solar energy via molten salt?
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