Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Statistics/baseball lineup question
Old 06-07-2013, 06:20 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
David1961's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,074
Statistics/baseball lineup question

This question might be filed under "I have way too much time on my hands" but here goes.

In a baseball game, what is the probability that the batting order of each team will be identical by position player? I know it would be slightly different in the American League versus the National League, since the pitcher always bats ninth in the NL. To me, the answer would be 1/9 x 1/8 x 1/7 x 1/6 x 1/5 x 1/4 x 1/3 x 1/2. Given that one team has their batting order, the chance that the leadoff hitter of the other team plays the same position is 1/9, then so on....

I know this question has no relevance to anything, but I love playing around with math and enjoy these questions.
__________________

__________________
David1961 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-07-2013, 06:24 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,068
Are their mortgages paid off?
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2013, 07:19 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
zinger1457's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,452
Tune into one of the televise MLB games and you might find the answer. It seems as if MLB TV announcers are in a major competition over who can recall the most meaningless stats.
__________________
zinger1457 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2013, 07:31 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
growing_older's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,608
I think for an AL lineup you are on the right track, however it may be the case that even if there is no pitcher to always bat last, there may be some positional effect for some batting positions. For example, the DH is unlikely to be the ninth batter. There is some tendency for 3rd, 4th and 5th batters to be outfielders or first baseman. Unless you have access to an awful lot of data and some number crunching computers, it will be hard to assign actual values to any of these deviations from your original assumptions.
__________________
growing_older is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2013, 07:51 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,883
This topic is more interesting than I originally thought as from the heading, I thought the topic was about steroids and the watered down statistics with steriods in the news again about the guy that's ready to talk about the players list.

I'd think the AL and NL would have an equal probabilty as even though most of the time the pitchers bats ninth, but that isnt' a requirement. Tony Larussa when he managed the Cardnals would bat the pitcher eighth sometimes as I think that had something to do with having a bigger percentage of runners on base when Pulois got up.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2013, 07:58 PM   #6
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 684
Quote:
Originally Posted by growing_older View Post
I think for an AL lineup you are on the right track, however it may be the case that even if there is no pitcher to always bat last, there may be some positional effect for some batting positions. For example, the DH is unlikely to be the ninth batter. There is some tendency for 3rd, 4th and 5th batters to be outfielders or first baseman. Unless you have access to an awful lot of data and some number crunching computers, it will be hard to assign actual values to any of these deviations from your original assumptions.
I was thinking this as well
__________________
48Fire is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2013, 07:59 PM   #7
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 684
Quote:
Originally Posted by easysurfer View Post
This topic is more interesting than I originally thought as from the heading, I thought the topic was about steroids and the watered down statistics with steriods in the news again about the guy that's ready to talk about the players list.

I'd think the AL and NL would have an equal probabilty as even though most of the time the pitchers bats ninth, but that isnt' a requirement. Tony Larussa when he managed the Cardnals would bat the pitcher eighth sometimes as I think that had something to do with having a bigger percentage of runners on base when Pulois got up.
I think he did that too smooth over the guy he batted 9th
__________________
48Fire is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2013, 08:28 PM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
comicbookgujy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 178
Small.

Other than most 1b batting 3rd or 4th.

Nowaday, you have SS, 2nd, C batting 3rd and clean up. In the old days, those guys usually bat 6th, 7th, 8th and easy outs.
__________________
comicbookgujy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2013, 08:48 PM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 321
Your answer is correct. 1/9! (factorial)

9! (362,880) is the number of ways 9 unique things can be ordered. So there is only one instance where the two orderings are identical.
__________________
"Time wounds all heels...." - Groucho Marx
LRDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2013, 09:19 PM   #10
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 333
Who's on first?
__________________
HighRoller is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2013, 09:21 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
David1961's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,074
Quote:
Originally Posted by HighRoller View Post
Who's on first?
Yes!
__________________
David1961 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2013, 09:34 PM   #12
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 684
Quote:
Originally Posted by LRDave View Post
Your answer is correct. 1/9! (factorial)

9! (362,880) is the number of ways 9 unique things can be ordered. So there is only one instance where the two orderings are identical.
Only if both managers are monkeys, and what are the odds of that?
__________________
48Fire is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2013, 07:00 AM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,396
Quote:
Originally Posted by LRDave View Post
Your answer is correct. 1/9! (factorial)

9! (362,880) is the number of ways 9 unique things can be ordered. So there is only one instance where the two orderings are identical.
I think 1/9! would apply if each playing position has an equal chance of being placed in each batting position in the line up. However, since DH's are more commonly early in the line up and pitchers are later, I don't think 1/9! would apply.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2013, 10:21 AM   #14
Recycles dryer sheets
timwalsh300's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by easysurfer View Post
Tony Larussa when he managed the Cardnals would bat the pitcher eighth sometimes as I think that had something to do with having a bigger percentage of runners on base when Pulois got up.
I remember when the Cardinals started experimenting with this. It was in 1998, in order to get more runners on-base for Mark McGwire. I didn't realize until now that it was still being done at least as recently as 2009 for Albert Pujols.

I also vaguely remember Mike Hampton hitting further up in the Rockies batting order. I see that he posted a .300 average with 10 homeruns from 1999-2002.

Tim
__________________
timwalsh300 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2013, 05:09 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,883
Quote:
Originally Posted by timwalsh300 View Post
I remember when the Cardinals started experimenting with this. It was in 1998, in order to get more runners on-base for Mark McGwire. I didn't realize until now that it was still being done at least as recently as 2009 for Albert Pujols.

I also vaguely remember Mike Hampton hitting further up in the Rockies batting order. I see that he posted a .300 average with 10 homeruns from 1999-2002.

Tim
I didn't know if statistically, the tinkering was a good move, or just Larussa having a warm and fuzzy gut feeling.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2013, 05:19 PM   #16
Full time employment: Posting here.
urn2bfree's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 711
Quote:
Originally Posted by easysurfer View Post

I didn't know if statistically, the tinkering was a good move, or just Larussa having a warm and fuzzy gut feeling.
I would tend to believe it was just LaRussa doing what he does to convince himself he actually had some advantage by being different. His career success notwithstanding, one has to wonder how much had to do with the tools he was given in the form of players vs the tools he brought to the table with his supposed strategic thinking or. motivational skills.
Most statistical analyses are not able to find managers make much difference. I do not think LaRussa was worth $4 million a year. But we will never know.
__________________
urn2bfree is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2013, 07:11 PM   #17
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 684
According to this, it has some validity

Is LaRussa right to bat his pitcher in the eight slot?
__________________
48Fire is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2013, 08:05 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 5,560
We live in Kansas City, what is this strange game of baseball that you speak of?
__________________

__________________
MRG is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:53 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.