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Swedroe critical of other authors works
Old 05-01-2013, 09:14 AM   #1
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Swedroe critical of other authors works

Larry takes a jab at the many doom/gloom books that pop up from time to time. Hope he does not have to sit on a panel with them in the future at an event.

Because of the nature of these books, the level of concern among investors goes up as they read them or hear their friends discuss them. This is especially true for those who have little to no training in finance and economics (which is true of most investors), so it’s important that we discuss the nature and value of these dire forecasts.
What most people fail to recognize is that many authors aren’t really in the information business. Instead, they are in the fame business. They know that you don’t get famous making “average” forecasts, just outlandish ones. For example, one of the more foolish books ever written was “Dow 36,000,” published in 1999 and written by journalist James Glassman and economist Kevin Hassett. It, along with such equally foolish books as demographer Harry Dent Jr.’s “The Roaring 2000s: Building The Wealth And Lifestyle You Desire In The Greatest Boom In History,” probably caused many readers to rush into stocks just as the bubble was about to burst.
Because bad news sells more than good, more often books are of the apocalypse variety.
Swedroe: Beware Of Investment Books

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Old 05-01-2013, 09:32 AM   #2
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Good for Larry, and the others in "camp #1" (below) who routinely do the same.

I think there are (at least) two camps anyway, and Larry wouldn't be worried about sitting on a panel with "authors" from another camp.

I'd put Swedroe, Ferri, Bernstein, Burns, Bogle, Schultheis & the Boglehead authors in camp #1 - though I am sure I am missing other important sources. And I'd put most of the others in camp #2 etc. You can usually recognize them by the attention grabbing titles to their books, articles, etc. - oldest trick in the book and yet it still works like a charm. "Dow 36,000" (in 1999 with PE's already thru the roof) - puhleeeze. Same nonsense that has given us thousands of diet books that sell like hotcakes and don't work.

When I do see those in camp #1 sitting on panels or serving as counterpoint on talk shows (it does happen), the camp #1 folks seem to acquit themselves well and easily. Though that's probably a reflection of my own financial biases.

My 2 cents...

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Old 05-01-2013, 09:40 AM   #3
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In the mid-1980's I read a doom and gloom book, whose name I can not remember except 'the coming whatever doom and gloom balony'. The predictions from the book never happened, but it did inspire me to buy some Krugerrands at about $380 dollars per ounce. So something good did come out of that stupid book, and I still have the Krugerrands.
"The natural inclination of every boat everywhere is to sink".......Nicole Pasulka
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