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The Crash Course (on the Economy)
Old 11-28-2008, 10:38 AM   #1
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The Crash Course (on the Economy)

If you want to learn a lot about the US economy and where we're headed with a lot of supporting data, here's how in 3 hours 20 minutes. You could simply watch the last two chapters if you are well versed on The Economy, Energy & Environment - but the earlier chapters provide compelling supporting data/discussion.

The Crash Course | Chris Martenson



Ready to learn everything you need to know about the economy in the shortest amount of time? The Crash Course seeks to provide you with a baseline understanding of the economy so that you can better appreciate the risks that we all face. Chapters are between 3 and 20 minutes in length. All 20 sections take 3 ho
  • Intro (on this page, above)
  • Chapter 1: Three Beliefs (Time: 1:46)
  • Chapter 2: The Three "E"s (Time: 1:38)
  • Chapter 3: Exponential Growth UPDATED! - November 3 (Time: 6:20)
  • Chapter 4: Compounding is the Problem (Time: 3:06)
  • Chapter 5: Growth vs. Prosperity (Time: 3:40)
  • Chapter 6: What is Money? (Time: 5:55)
  • Chapter 7: Money Creation (Time: 4:19)
  • Chapter 8: The Fed - Money Creation (Time: 7:13)
  • Chapter 9: A Brief History of US Money (Time: 7:14)
  • Chapter 10: Inflation (Time: 11:48)
  • Chapter 11: How Much Is A Trillion? (Time: 3:28)
  • Chapter 12: Debt(Time: 12:32)
  • Chapter 13: A National Failure To Save (Time: 12:06)
  • Chapter 14: Assets & Demographics (Time: 13:41)
  • Chapter 15: Bubbles (Time: 14:10)
  • Chapter 16: Fuzzy Numbers (Time: 15:52)
  • Chapter 17: PART A: Peak Oil (Time: 17:52)
  • Chapter 17: PART B: Energy Budgeting (Time: 12:15)
  • Chapter 17: PART C: Energy And The Economy (Time: 7:05)
  • Chapter 18: Environmental Data (Time: 16:22)
  • Chapter 19: Future Shock (Time: 8:02)
  • Chapter 20: What Should I Do? NEW! - October 22 (Time: 19:48)
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Old 11-28-2008, 11:01 AM   #2
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What did you think about all of this?
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Old 11-28-2008, 11:30 AM   #3
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OK, I listened to the final chapter.
It reminded me of those from the
early 80s - invest in gold - due to huge inflation and financial problems - see Howard Ruff
mid 80s - prepare for nuclear war - survivalism & gold

He also takes a USA centric view of the world which I think influences his conclusions.

It is good that he advises people to educate themselves and assess the situation, how to assess it and think about what they would do.

I agree with him that the financial outlook for the USA is not good. He does not present ideas about what to do about it. I'm guessing he will do that in the future and gold will be part of the answer.
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Old 11-28-2008, 11:40 AM   #4
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The guy makes some good points about debt.

But I am not sure it will play out the way he suggests.

His answer is to hold Gold (the actual hard asset).
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Old 11-28-2008, 01:45 PM   #5
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Can anyone who has watched this provide Martenson's rationale for choosing gold, of all the potential commodities, as the dependable stable storehouse of value? I guess I could invest the time to view it . . .

I like it when an author spends a lot of time explaining why this time it's different, then closes with the argument that we should buy gold, because that is what worked before. So, I guess it is "kinda" different this time, but not really different.
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Old 11-28-2008, 01:55 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post
Can anyone who has watched this provide Martenson's rationale for choosing gold, of all the potential commodities, as the dependable stable storehouse of value? I guess I could invest the time to view it . . .

I like it when an author spends a lot of time explaining why this time it's different, then closes with the argument that we should buy gold, because that is what worked before. So, I guess it is "kinda" different this time, but not really different.
It's differently different this time?
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Old 11-28-2008, 09:24 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by dex View Post
OK, I listened to the final chapter.
It reminded me of those from the
early 80s - invest in gold - due to huge inflation and financial problems - see Howard Ruff
mid 80s - prepare for nuclear war - survivalism & gold
I think that Dr. Martenson was not providing specific action recommendations in his final chapter. Instead, he was trying to provide examples of the kinds of actions that could appear on someone's action list. I agree that he could have made this much more clear, and failing to do this risks making him look like a crackpot. This is too bad, because I found the preceding chapters to be of high quality.

I viewed the entire Crash Course this evening - all 3.5 hours of it - and sent Dr. Martenson a $25 donation via Paypal. If you knew how cheap I am, you'd realize that I didn't make this decision lightly Why did I do this? Because I was planning to do exactly the kind of comprehensive portfolio review and strategic planning that Martenson recommends in his final chapter, and Martenson not only expressed clearly and concisely many of the concerns I've been having recently, but he provided a wealth of factual information that would have taken me much time to uncover. I will be recommending the Crash Course to everyone I know.
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Old 11-28-2008, 11:35 PM   #8
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Socca,
Don't get me wrong. I agree with the problems he identifies and the possible outcome.
I also like the way he suggest a person analyze a problem.

I didn't hear him talk about gold but that appears where he is going. Did he mention gold?

I don't think gold is the answer, while it can be part of the answer.
I would include in the mix
Foreign currency
Foreign stocks
Commodities

No one knows the timing on when things will really start to deteriorate. I thing there is sometime to learn and prepare. My guess is:
2009 - recession
2010 - 2012 or apx 2016 - 2020 stability
apx 2020? - affects of the current bail out hit the economy - higher than normal inflation - how bad, could it be compounded by foreign countries dumping dollars? Will the fed raise interest rates high enough to counteract this?

Gold will look good in the scenario where the dollar is falling - so will commodities, foreign currencies.
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Old 11-29-2008, 04:58 AM   #9
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I looked at this a while back.

He advises gold or other precious metals.

His catastrophe are three problems that creates a perfect storm. Over consumption of oil, massive US debt (govt and consumer)... I can't remember the third item.

He thinks that there will probably be huge inflation in the USD to deal with the growing US debt. Debt is either Paid Back, Defaulted On, or reduced by inflation. Ultimately a USD collapse.

IMO - there are quite a number of people who are working to ensure that this does not happen. Plus, we are still better off than the rest of the world?
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Old 11-29-2008, 05:12 AM   #10
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What did you think about all of this?
Mostly I liked so much data all in one place on everything to do with the economy. There are so many unsubstantiated posts on this forum, I am always more interested in supporting "data"

And I do believe that oil/energy has shaped our economic growth for many years and will continue to do so - unfortunately (I don't think there's any avoiding peak oil, it's only a matter of when IMHO). When demand crosses over supply/cost for good, our energy costs will skyrocket IMO, unlike anything we've ever seen. Based on their actions, I don't think the mainstream population agrees. Again, to me the only question is when.

I also agree with his POV that in 2020 the world will have changed like we've never seen. And that our standard of living will be impacted, one of the primary reasons we've always lived far below our means.

Early on while watching, I was expecting him to make a big pitch for gold in the end. But it's somewhat subtle and I thought the last chapter was weak by comparison. I drew conclusions of my own based on chapters 1-19...YMMV
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Old 11-29-2008, 08:17 AM   #11
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And I do believe that oil/energy has shaped our economic growth for many years and will continue to do so - unfortunately (I don't think there's any avoiding peak oil, it's only a matter of when IMHO). When demand crosses over supply/cost for good, our energy costs will skyrocket IMO, unlike anything we've ever seen. Based on their actions, I don't think the mainstream population agrees. Again, to me the only question is when.
We have a simalar view.
I would say that a major issues never addressed as a factor in all these discussions is world population growth and the affect of it:
- demand for commodities
- political instability
- economic instability
- environmental impact
We are at 6.5B and moving towards 10B in 2050
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Old 11-29-2008, 08:36 AM   #12
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We have a simalar view.
I would say that a major issues never addressed as a factor in all these discussions is world population growth and the affect of it:
- demand for commodities
- political instability
- economic instability
- environmental impact
We are at 6.5B and moving towards 10B in 2050
Actually he does address world population growth. It's discussed in Chpt 3 on exponential growth, world pop is clearly a trend on that path...
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Old 11-29-2008, 09:12 AM   #13
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Actually he does address world population growth. It's discussed in Chpt 3 on exponential growth, world pop is clearly a trend on that path...

Thanks - I only listened to #20.
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Old 11-29-2008, 10:15 AM   #14
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Thanks - I only listened to #20.
#19 is a summary of #1 thru #18. #20 is unfortunately the weakest chapter IMHO. I thought #1 thru #19 were very worthwhile, but I drew my own conclusions...
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