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the decline and fall of the american empire
Old 08-04-2010, 01:53 PM   #1
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the decline and fall of the american empire

The decline and fall of the American empire - I always wanted to read a novel that is written by a future historian describing the decline and fall of the American empire. If anyone knows of such a book; let me know.

I did a search for it and came up with some interesting articles.

the decline and fall of the american empire - Google Search

This guy Ferguson is getting a lot of press lately. He makes the case that the decline is not a slow one but sudden.

America, the fragile empire - Page 3 - Los Angeles Times
"If empires are complex systems that sooner or later succumb to sudden and catastrophic malfunctions, what are the implications for the United States today? First, debating the stages of decline may be a waste of time -- it is a precipitous and unexpected fall that should most concern policymakers and citizens. Second, most imperial falls are associated with fiscal crises. Alarm bells should therefore be ringing very loudly indeed as the United States contemplates a deficit for 2010 of more than $1.5 trillion -- about 11% of GDP, the biggest since World War II."

Niall Ferguson Discuss The Fall Of The US

"Quietly, discreetly, the Chinese are reducing their exposure to US Treasury bonds. Perhaps they have noticed what the rest of the world's investors pretend not to see - that the US is on an unsustainable fiscal course, with no apparent political means of self-correcting."

http://dir.salon.com/books/int/2002/...han/index.html
What mistakes do historians and scholars make when they say that America is different, that for some reason American primacy will last indefinitely?

That Chinese curse 'May you live in interesting times.' might be in effect.
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Old 08-04-2010, 02:22 PM   #2
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Dex, are you sure you are cleared for this?

Ha
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Old 08-04-2010, 04:14 PM   #3
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[QUOTE=dex;964542]What mistakes do historians and scholars make when they say that America is different, that for some reason American primacy will last indefinitely? [QUOTE]

Good question...The US has the worlds reserve currency and thousands of nukes. We just locked up the worlds second largest oil reserves. Well, that's all I have.

Even though I think the US is in an unstoppable decline, I remain positive. My "Other countries I would live in" list is longer than ever. The US may die, hopefully a slow death, but our constitutional values (which we may no longer live by) have spread far and wide.
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Old 08-04-2010, 04:27 PM   #4
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I'm a shiny, happy person...
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Old 08-04-2010, 04:40 PM   #5
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Yes, yes, you must be right! That is why long term Treasury yields are racing upwards!
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Old 08-04-2010, 05:48 PM   #6
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For the moment I owe 40 K to the fed debt and 2K to Calif. debt. If I figure in unfunded liabilities I owe 143K to the fed and 25K to Calif. 168K total. I am a family of 4 so we owe 672K. Obviously it will never be paid. Things are going to change.

Add in possible natural disasters, earthquakes, volcanoes, energy crises, food shortages, climate change, civil unrest, pandemics, terrorism...

Dex, quit thinking about the ifs and start preparing for the whens. I keep saving money, staying fit, hoarding food, supplies, guns, and ammo, then forget about it and live a genuinly euphoric life.
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Old 08-04-2010, 07:03 PM   #7
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Hoarding food, supplies, guns and ammo are inconsistent with living a genuinely euphoric life.

Tell me, were you guys this bummed on the future 5 years ago? How much of this is recession weariness? How much is trying to counter the general optimism of the prevalent culture here? How much of this is spending too much time "talking to Jack?"
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Old 08-04-2010, 07:17 PM   #8
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I'm a shiny, happy person...
Yeah me too...if I can only get my vitamin D levels up and soak in some sunshine.

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Old 08-04-2010, 07:25 PM   #9
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Double up on the vitamin D. Get laid. Don't watch tv news. Smoke some dope, bake some bread, have a pot of blackberry jam on hand.

This may not be the best of all possible worlds but there is much to be said for paying attention to what is at hand: "Returning to their farm, Candide, Pangloss, and Martin meet a Turk whose philosophy is to devote his life only to simple work and not concern himself with external affairs. He and his four children work a small farm to keep "free of three great evils: boredom, vice and necessity". Candide, Pangloss, Martin, Cunégonde, Paquette, the old woman, and Brother Giroflée all set to work (on this "louable dessein", or "commendable plan", as the narrator calls it), each to one specific task. Candide ignores Pangloss's insistence that all turned out for the best by necessity, instead telling him "we must cultivate our garden".
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Old 08-04-2010, 07:38 PM   #10
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I walked up to the park today to get some sun. When I was laying out my pad and towel a woman who was weeding at the edge of the lawn said hi. Later, as I left I went over to talk to her. She was smiling and singing. She said she was a gardener's assistant. She puls the weeds she is told to pull, waters the grass she is told to water, and has no responsibility beyond pulling the weeds, watering the grass.

A happy person.

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Old 08-04-2010, 08:35 PM   #11
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Dex, are you sure you are cleared for this?

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No, I think I'm having a relapse.
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Old 08-04-2010, 10:04 PM   #12
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I always wanted to read a novel that is written by a future historian describing the decline and fall of the American empire.
One of the cognitive distortions listed by Dr. Burns is called "Fortune Telling" where one is convinced that the future will happen a particular way (and acts accordingly), even though there is no way to know for sure what will happen in the future. This thinking pattern can be very demotivating because one thinks that no matter what they do, things are going to work out the assumed way.

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Old 08-04-2010, 10:20 PM   #13
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Dex, are you sure you are cleared for this?

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Negative, Ghost Rider, the pattern is full.

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Old 08-04-2010, 10:38 PM   #14
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"Empire of Debt" by William Bonner and Addison Wiggin is an interesting read.

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Old 08-05-2010, 12:29 PM   #15
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I wish I had that much ammo. It is still too expensive! That's a nice selection of ARs too. Wish I could go shooting instead of sitting in this cube freezing my butt off (AC is broken here, its 69F inside).
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:01 PM   #16
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I wish I had that much ammo. It is still too expensive! That's a nice selection of ARs too. Wish I could go shooting instead of sitting in this cube freezing my butt off (AC is broken here, its 69F inside).
Bimmerbill, maybe you need to go outside and "sweat bullets". (Sorry, 'bout that) Wonder if those mags are fully loaded. Springs won't last long if so.

It is kind of a pretty sight, isn't it.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:39 PM   #17
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If you really want something to be depressed about, consider the fact that the Red Sox are 6 1/2 games back. Now that's depressing.
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Old 08-05-2010, 08:56 PM   #18
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If you really want something to be depressed about, consider the fact that the Red Sox are 6 1/2 games back. Now that's depressing.
Probably due to the decline of the American League umpire...

Rangers have an eight-game lead, but it's still early yet.
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Old 08-05-2010, 09:03 PM   #19
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Rangers have an eight-game lead, but it's still early yet.
Nice to see Nolan Ryan's group win the bid to buy them rather than that idiot Mark Cuban...
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Old 08-06-2010, 06:12 AM   #20
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Nice to see Nolan Ryan's group win the bid to buy them rather than that idiot Mark Cuban...
Come on now - think of all the money MLB could make from Cuban's fines
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