I'm a little pooped out to do this all right now, but I will say this as a place-holder:
1. "Four Pillars" is great. Bernstein is both wise and a good author. That said, he is NOT perfect.
2. I have had some misgivings with some of his stories used to support ideas. The ideas may be sound, but a few of the illustrations just seem like old saws that may not hold up to either fact-checking or statistical rigor. I am NOT saying anything other than he may have made the all-too human mistake of being attached to some old war stories and useful examples that might not all pass a 'Snopes check'.
3. Sure enough, his use of the example of Bayesian statistics to find a sunken sub, USS Scorpion
, seemed unlikely, and I thought the numbers seemed artificial, and the story highly improbable. (The technique was used, has validity, but the story was a bit TOO pat).
4. My intuition appears correct. Here are a couple of clips directly in contravention of Bernstein's colorful story. As is usual with accidents involving aircraft, ships, and other intricate technology, the real story is MORE intriguing, less certain, and far more subtle than the short chestnut would make it out to be.
5. So is his point wrong? No. But this (IMHO) is likely just one of many places where loose use of 'stories' or 'common knowledge' might mar otherwise excellent insight and advice.
Many might think it unworthy of me making this criticism, but to me anything that gets us closer to the ground truth is good. Hopefully some will be interested.
I am going to link to three or four small blurbs out of a book available on Amazon, and can't imagine this would be an issue because 1) It ought to generate eyeballs and interest for book (I have no $ interest), 2) "Fair Use" Law indemnifies those who are not for profit, doing critical assessment, using in limited way, extended use, etc. I am doing all of that.
Intro to Gordon Hamilton and SOFAR:
Recordings & concept:
3 months of searching...:
The sled finds it:
Bottom line? Well, this is how Gordon Hamilton (and many others) saw it:
At the Bermuda SOFAR Station the initial SOSUS research was done (with Joe Worzel), the first Precision Depth Recorder was developed (by Bernie Luskin) and my research, data and analysis led to finding the lost USS Scorpion debris field in 1967.