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the next 100 years
Old 08-31-2010, 02:30 AM   #1
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the next 100 years

I couldn't sleep tonight.

the next 100 years - interesting projections
A forecast for the 21st century: CEO of Stratfor.Com – George Friedman [Video] | 1913 Intel

Drawing on history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years, Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era – with changes in store, including:
- The US-Jihadist war will conclude – replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
- China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
- A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
- Technology will focus on space – both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
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Old 08-31-2010, 03:21 AM   #2
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Meh. It's always fun to be contrary. This sounds like the kind of thing people were forecasting 30 years ago. I don't see anyone voting major money for space programmes any time soon. One point for China probably having to undergo some difficult internal transformations, though: it's hard to make progress beyond a certain level in a car-owning, whisky-importing society with the levels of either authoritarianism or corruption that a one-party state brings.
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Old 08-31-2010, 06:39 AM   #3
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I couldn't sleep tonight.
No more stocks.........what's the problem?
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Old 08-31-2010, 06:46 AM   #4
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Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
As long as it's not the drug kingpins exercising that world power!!!!!

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Old 08-31-2010, 06:58 AM   #5
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They always get it wrong and miss the big things. Even I can get the little things. In 100 years our progeny will still be sleeping in beds that look like the ones we have now in houses that are not all that much different, and they will be worrying about the same old same old (is FI in sight, will I get the girl)
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Old 08-31-2010, 07:19 AM   #6
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Dex, are you OK? Given any thought of talking to a professional counselor or similar?
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Old 08-31-2010, 08:23 AM   #7
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A quick google came up with this for predictions for the next 100 years from 1900. I am not sure we have a very good record for long term predicting. Unless you are Jules Vern:
"
In 1900, Ladies Home Journal published an article by one John Elfreth Watkins Jr. purporting to have assembled forecasts by “the wisest and most careful men in our greatest institutions of science.” Among their predictions for the year 2000:
  • There would be 350,000 to 500,000,000 people in America—in part because Mexico would have joined the United States. It has, sort of, but the population has yet to swell quite so large.
  • Travel from suburban home to city office would take just a few minutes, and the fare for public transport would be a penny. This belongs to the electricity-too-cheap-to-meter class of forecasting, but it’s a nice thought.
  • “A man or woman unable to walk ten miles at a stretch will be regarded as a weakling.” For commentary, see the Pixar film WALL-E.
  • The United States will be crisscrossed by fast trains by which a trip from New York to San Francisco would take a day and a half. Alas, poor Amtrak….
  • “There will be air-ships, but they will not successfully compete with surface cars and water vessels for passenger or freight traffic. They will be maintained as deadly war-vessels by all military nations. Some will transport men and goods. Others will be used by scientists making observations at great heights above the earth.” This one gets half a point for correctly predicting lethality.
  • “Photographs will be telegraphed from any distance. If there be a battle in China a hundred years hence snapshots of its most striking events will be published in the newspapers an hour later. Even to-day photographs are being telegraphed over short distances. Photographs will reproduce all of Nature’s colors.” This one gets a full point.
  • “Mosquitoes, house-flies and roaches will have been practically exterminated.” Nope. Again, see WALL-E.
  • “Peas and beans will be as large as beets are to-day.” For commentary, see Woody Allen’s film Sleeper.
  • “Strawberries as large as apples will be eaten by our great-great-grandchildren for their Christmas dinners a hundred years hence. Raspberries and blackberries will be as large. One will suffice for the fruit course of each person.” Ditto.
  • “There will be No C, X or Q in our every-day alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary. Spelling by sound will have been adopted, first by the newspapers. English will be a language of condensed words expressing condensed ideas, and will be more extensively spoken than any other. Russian will rank second.” Nyet.
  • “Poor students will be given free board, free clothing and free books if ambitious and actually unable to meet their school and college expenses. Medical inspectors regularly visiting the public schools will furnish poor children free eyeglasses, free dentistry and free medical attention of every kind.” Alas, no; public education is built on the Social Darwinist model, like the rest of the show.
  • “Pneumatic tubes, instead of store wagons, will deliver packages and bundles.” Ah, those tubes! For commentary, see Terry Gilliam’s film Brazil.
  • “The living body will to all medical purposes be transparent. Not only will it be possible for a physician to actually see a living, throbbing heart inside the chest, but he will be able to magnify and photograph any part of it. This work will be done with rays of invisible light.” Spot on.
  • “There will be no wild animals except in menageries.” Almost, almost. Give it a few more years."
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Old 08-31-2010, 09:11 AM   #8
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In 100 years:

President George Z. Bush will have finally banned nucular weapons...

Lindsey Lohan and Paris Hilton are arrested for illegal enema paraphernalia, and sentenced to 30 days solitary confinement at the Sunny Land Rest Home...

Donald Trump still has bad hair...

HFWR, the oldest human alive at 156, attributes his longevity to heavy drinking and medicinal marijuana use...
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Old 08-31-2010, 09:44 AM   #9
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Dex, listening to George Friedman is like listening to Bill Gross - he’s talking his book.

The next 100 years will be full of discoveries, challenges, conflict and evolution. Advances in medicine, energy, and agriculture will change humanity, and possibly billions will rise from poverty. It will be the true age of prosperity.

And people will still be drinking beer
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Old 08-31-2010, 09:49 AM   #10
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This is an interesting study from the perspective of national security (not exactly light reading):

http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storya...JOE_2010_o.pdf

"The Joint Operating Environment is intended to inform joint concept
development and experimentation throughout the Department
of Defense. It provides a perspective on future trends, shocks,
contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders and
other leaders and professionals in the national security field. This
document is speculative in nature and does not suppose to predict
what will happen in the next twenty-five years. Rather, it is intended
to serve as a starting point for discussions about the future security
environment at the operational level of war."
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:10 AM   #11
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Meh. It's always fun to be contrary. This sounds like the kind of thing people were forecasting 30 years ago. I don't see anyone voting major money for space programmes any time soon. One point for China probably having to undergo some difficult internal transformations, though: it's hard to make progress beyond a certain level in a car-owning, whisky-importing society with the levels of either authoritarianism or corruption that a one-party state brings.
The book was published Jan '09, written '07-08(?) maybe he didn't look at the debt levels. He also said there would be a labor shortage due to decreasing birth rates (I've seen est of 10B people by '50 or '60).

He spoke a lot about the size of countries' GDP. Mentioned the importance of Turkey - military, influence with Muslim world and size of the economy. Also, that Poland will rise as a power - supported by the USA. Bush's plan to put those missiles there was part of the plan.
It was a relatively good forecast for the USA; it remains a world leader and its system - capitalism and large military.

I may skim the book at the library.
I was able to get to sleep after watching the video.
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:22 AM   #12
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I couldn't sleep tonight.
Why would any of those things keep a person from sleep? I am not being facetious, I truly am curious.

In any event, my signature lines need to be pointed out... again.
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:25 AM   #13
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I couldn't sleep tonight.

the next 100 years - interesting projections
A forecast for the 21st century: CEO of Stratfor.Com – George Friedman [Video] | 1913 Intel

Drawing on history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years, Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era – with changes in store, including:
- The US-Jihadist war will conclude – replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
That shows a lack of imagination. Why not figure out a NEW enemy? There always seem to be new ones arising. How about a lukewarm war with New Zealand? I can't imagine why, but I am sure politicians can come up with something. Or maybe Libya. Khadafi has already received plenty of disapproval from us for a variety of reasons, so there's a head start on it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dex
- China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
China has been through a few. How about India emerging as the top world power? They're already among the top few, and making great advances, it seems to me.

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Originally Posted by Dex
- A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
Pffft. Predicting a new war is SUCH a safe bet. Yeah, there will be another war.

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Originally Posted by Dex
- Technology will focus on space – both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
As world population explodes, it would be pretty mind-boggling if humans did not once again make efforts towards the exploration of outer space. Military and environmental implications are great rationalizations.

So, I predict that within 100 years we will engage in a lukewarm war with New Zealand, India will be the top world power, there will be another world war (obviously India will win), and space exploration will resume. Those who are alive in 100 years can tell me I was wrong but I will presumably be absent. I don't actually expect to live to age 162.
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:25 AM   #14
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Why would any of those things keep a person from sleep? I am not being facetious, I truly am curious.
Not sleeping came first.
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:30 AM   #15
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Not sleeping came first.
I see. It was a trap. Good one!
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:31 AM   #16
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I predict another 100 years of happiness, excitement, growth, success, poverty, famine, wars, peace, suffering, discord, harmony, innovation, liberalization, globalization, persecution, and above all, progress in the human condition.
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Old 08-31-2010, 10:57 AM   #17
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I see. It was a trap. Good one!
That is too slick for me.
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Old 09-01-2010, 08:51 AM   #18
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Interesting about China. They have made amazing economic progress, but they still need to accomplish much, much more to distribute the gains more equitabily and keep domestic harmony.

Forecasts are a best guess and 100 years out, no one really knows. But a good clip for sure
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Old 09-02-2010, 01:14 AM   #19
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How about a lukewarm war with New Zealand?
Ah! The perfect Grand Fenwick!
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Old 09-02-2010, 01:16 AM   #20
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I couldn't sleep tonight.

the next 100 years - interesting projections
A forecast for the 21st century: CEO of Stratfor.Com – George Friedman [Video] | 1913 Intel

Drawing on history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years, Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era – with changes in store, including:
- The US-Jihadist war will conclude – replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
- China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
- A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
- Technology will focus on space – both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
Sounds like a new Nostradamus.
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