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Old 08-07-2012, 12:37 PM   #41
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The only thing I can predict with any certainty is that except for human nature, things will change, but what and when I don't have a clue.
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Old 08-07-2012, 04:19 PM   #42
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The most enjoyable part about the forum, is the general upbeat, positive attitude of most members.
You could've stopped right there.

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That said... here's a question that I think about quite a bit, expecting that at best, the next ten years will be "it".
What do you see happening between now and 2022, or whatever your time line is for retirement?
I predict that in 2022 you'll be predicting at least as much doom & gloom as you've been predicting in this and in a number of your other posts.

I think there are a number of history books on 19th and 20th century finance that will help you appreciate how good the 21st century is really stacking up. True, that's not saying much, but there's a bright side to your despair.

I recommend a library copy of "Lords of Finance", a history of the financial leaders of the world's economic leaders in the period of 1900-1930.
Amazon.com: Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World (9780143116806): Liaquat Ahamed: Books
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Old 10-21-2013, 05:49 PM   #43
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Credit Suisse just published the Global Wealth Report of 2013. They are very bullish in their outlook:
"Global wealth has reached a new all-time high of USD 241 trillion, up
4.9% since last year and 68% since 2003, with the USA accounting for
72% of the latest increase. Average wealth per adult reached a new all time
high of USD 51,600.
We expect global wealth to rise by nearly 40% over the next five
years, reaching USD 334 trillion by 2018. Emerging markets are
responsible for 29% of that growth. China will account for nearly 50%."
I hope they are right.
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Old 10-21-2013, 07:10 PM   #44
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I'm optimistic. I think the probability of the last 12 years repeating themselves is less than the probability that the next 10 years will be highly prosperous.The last 12 years have been filled with booms and busts, wars and peace, health and sickness, feast and famine.

For me, it seems those with the current gloom and doom outlooks are those for which this is the first cycle they've lived thru. And as we all know, everything runs in cycles.

Agree. The last 12 years have been so bad, we have to revert to the mean sometime. Even a continued modest recovery would spell good times.
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Old 10-21-2013, 07:30 PM   #45
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Credit Suisse just published the Global Wealth Report of 2013. They are very bullish in their outlook:
"Global wealth has reached a new all-time high of USD 241 trillion, up
4.9% since last year and 68% since 2003, with the USA accounting for
72% of the latest increase. Average wealth per adult reached a new all time
high of USD 51,600.
We expect global wealth to rise by nearly 40% over the next five
years, reaching USD 334 trillion by 2018. Emerging markets are
responsible for 29% of that growth. China will account for nearly 50%."
I hope they are right.
As a recent retiree, I would very much prefer that they are right - positive real returns during the early stages of retirement will go a long way towards derisking my later years.
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Old 01-31-2015, 04:55 PM   #46
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Already two and a half years into the ten year crystal ball.
Has your thinking changed?

If you are not yet retired, what's your ranking on the optimism scale?
If you've retired since your original post, is retirement so far, what you expected?
If you were retired back in 2012... any changes in your thinking between then and now?

In our case... finances about the same, a little bit better than expected. Lifestyle changed with a general slowdown of activities. Age creeping in, and though health is still reasonbly good, mind not as sharp.
With all of that, more quiet time to step back from personal cares and look at the world as "a fly on the wall of history"... to look at what's happening, and to put the pieces together and make guesses about tomorrow.

The single greatest change from the past 2 1/2 years seems to me, to be the turn towards tech... 24/7 connectivity, less personal contact, and a hardening of atitudes and beliefs. Not much of a change in actual lving conditions, but a change in direction.

Two and a half years goes by fast. Has anything changed in your outlook?

As to the Mayan Apocalypse... more info here:

http://www.hugedomains.com/domain_pr...ocalypse&e=com
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Old 01-31-2015, 05:40 PM   #47
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I agree with Audreyh1's posts.

Worrying only makes sense when we can do something about the problem. Beyond that, worry could almost be considered a pathology.

Most of you know about, and in a friendly way have even teased me about, my "belt and suspenders and more" approach to my own financial plan, which was something that I could DO about my worries. After creating a protective plan, what sense is there in letting worries rule our days and nights?

After one has done everything possible, there is no sense in continuing to worry. Time to kick back and enjoy these good years. Tomorrow, any one of us could be hit by a runaway truck but today, we have our lives to enjoy.

What will happen in the next ten years? Who knows? One thing that I do know is that they will be the most wonderful ten years possible for me.
Nope. Nothing has changed. It has been a pretty amazing and terrific two and a half years thus far. OK, getting older is a little annoying, along with the aches and pains of aging and the tough battle to keep up my strength. But other than that, life has been a bowl of cherries. Continuation of the stock market boom was a pleasant surprise.
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Old 01-31-2015, 06:21 PM   #48
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A wee digression, but, I love this comment:

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After one has done everything possible, there is no sense in continuing to worry. Time to kick back and enjoy these good years. Tomorrow, any one of us could be hit by a runaway truck but today, we have our lives to enjoy.
I was reflecting on much the same sentiment on my walk earlier today.

Cheers, everyone.
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Old 01-31-2015, 06:54 PM   #49
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My original post:



Nope. Nothing has changed. It has been a pretty amazing and terrific two and a half years thus far. OK, getting older is a little annoying, along with the aches and pains of aging and the tough battle to keep up my strength. But other than that, life has been a bowl of cherries. Continuation of the stock market boom was a pleasant surprise.

Ditto. Life is pretty good. Growing old sucks. Would have been nice to have the money that I have now and the youth/time to enjoy it.


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Old 01-31-2015, 09:18 PM   #50
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I have slowly learned that politics and outside forces are mostly outside my control and scary as they are happening but largely irrelevant for the most part.

I see a high probability that everything will be totally fine 10 years from now. Odds are that our family will see some calamity during the next decade (fire, flood, tornado hurricane, economic set back, illness/injury/death, etc) but we'll do ok in spite of it.

I expect my kids will be 10 years older at the end of the next decade, and life will present a different set of interesting and exciting challenges. But life won't be fundamentally different than today.
Wow, that quarter of a decade sure went by quickly. I posted the above comment in August 2012.

The economic set back hit us in August 2013 when I got lower case fired. It came totally out of the blue and was a political house cleaning where about a quarter of the staff were walked out of the building with no warning.

We were close enough to FIRE status that I threw in the towel. We are financially better off today thanks to roughly equal parts of market returns and DW still working (though that may change very soon).

Otherwise, not a lot has changed. Our kids are doing well in school, our (at the time) six month old is now almost 3 and talking and walking and doing all kinds of crazy active things. We have taken a bunch of vacations over the last 2.5 years and I'm really enjoying my ER so far!

I bet the next 7.5 years still has some unexpected bad news for us but what it will be remains unknown to me!

I'll stand by my disregard of political winds. I don't really care who's in the White House in 2016 since it probably won't make much difference for the nation as a whole.
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Old 02-01-2015, 07:49 AM   #51
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Are we talking seal flu? Ebola? Something else?
What's really scary is that Brewer said the "Ebola" word back in 2012, and it happened!!!
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Old 02-01-2015, 08:02 AM   #52
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I certainly agree with you that the entitlement mentality is stronger than ever, but it appears to me the media is making more noise about taxing the rich than the public is. As long as the money is coming (borrowing of course) I don't think the general public cares if the rich are getting taxed more or not. This Gallup poll suggests it isn't a major priority issue.

Poll: Global warming and taxing the rich rank low on voters' radar | The Daily Caller
I think (hope) that we'll find a better way to deal with the extremes (Uber-rich and perpetually poor/welfare) as I think that's what really causes the issue.

The biggest dis-service to the U.S. conversation on this topic was the invention of the phrase "millionaires and billionaires"...the two have nothing in common. It's like saying "the problem is these mice and elephants."

I don't think most people have a problem with someone who works hard, takes some risk and winds up comfortable (millionaire). I do think most people have a problem with corporate execs and others who make $20M+ per year and give themselves 20% raises while telling the front line guy/gal that they get 2.5% again and no increase in the 401k match. Unless you invent something and start the company, no one should earn multi-generational wealth EVERY YEAR.

At the other end, I don't think most people have a problem helping get $20k of college tuition help to the child of a family making $60k/yr. Nor do we have a problem bridging a young woman who finds herself with a child and no job over to a stable life. We do have a problem with the people who never plan for their future (college, retirement) and those who use food stamps to buy some stuff and then ringing a basket of expensive food out with cash as they work the system.

I hope we find way to say "enough" to both ends without pretending that everyone in the middle is the problem.
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Old 02-01-2015, 08:07 AM   #53
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What's really scary is that Brewer said the "Ebola" word back in 2012, and it happened!!!
Pffft...

He heard it from me in 2008:
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... recurring ebola virus outbreaks...
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Old 02-01-2015, 08:11 AM   #54
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The biggest dis-service to the U.S. conversation on this topic was the invention of the phrase "millionaires and billionaires"...the two have nothing in common.
I take it as shorthand for "anyone who is better off than you". We're creating an envy society.

I just wish for once, just once, one of these donkeys would define "middle class". When most of us hear middle class, we think of someone in the $50K to $120K income range (more or less, YMMV).

When these stooges say middle class, I suspect they're talking about the 'working poor'.
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Old 02-01-2015, 09:03 AM   #55
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Hopefully another interesting thread won't be lost due to off-topic comments with political undertones.
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Old 02-01-2015, 09:21 AM   #56
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Hopefully another interesting thread won't be lost due to off-topic comments with political undertones.
I hope so. The original thread was miraculously not closed, so imoldernu was able to bring it back to life. It would be so great for this thread to survive without closing!
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Old 02-01-2015, 10:16 AM   #57
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2012, 2013 and 2014 gave our retirement portfolio a nice boost!

I don't think people expected those years to be huge equity market up years.
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Old 02-01-2015, 11:51 AM   #58
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I think (hope) that we'll find a better way to deal with the extremes (Uber-rich and perpetually poor/welfare) as I think that's what really causes the issue.



The biggest dis-service to the U.S. conversation on this topic was the invention of the phrase "millionaires and billionaires"...the two have nothing in common. It's like saying "the problem is these mice and elephants."



I don't think most people have a problem with someone who works hard, takes some risk and winds up comfortable (millionaire). I do think most people have a problem with corporate execs and others who make $20M+ per year and give themselves 20% raises while telling the front line guy/gal that they get 2.5% again and no increase in the 401k match. Unless you invent something and start the company, no one should earn multi-generational wealth EVERY YEAR.



At the other end, I don't think most people have a problem helping get $20k of college tuition help to the child of a family making $60k/yr. Nor do we have a problem bridging a young woman who finds herself with a child and no job over to a stable life. We do have a problem with the people who never plan for their future (college, retirement) and those who use food stamps to buy some stuff and then ringing a basket of expensive food out with cash as they work the system.



I hope we find way to say "enough" to both ends without pretending that everyone in the middle is the problem.

The absolute numbers get so big Krotoole, it is hard to differentiate between a millionaire and billionaire to someone who has little. That is probably where the confusion comes in for some. I am part of a 40 billion plus pension trust fund that services safely 75,000 recipients and 125,000 plus in the pipeline as current workers. Yet Bill Gates alone has accumulated 80 billion my himself in his lifetime. It is just incredibly hard to wrap my mind about all of that wealth accumulated by one man.
I am not condemning his wealth or even suggesting it being confiscated. Just an observation of how big that is compared to a successful pension fund. I mean he could take over our COLA'd pension system and take care of all of us in the system and he would still have half his money. Now that definitely is one difference between a millionaire and a billionaire!


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Old 02-01-2015, 12:47 PM   #59
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The absolute numbers get so big Krotoole, it is hard to differentiate between a millionaire and billionaire to someone who has little. That is probably where the confusion comes in for some. I am part of a 40 billion plus pension trust fund that services safely 75,000 recipients and 125,000 plus in the pipeline as current workers. Yet Bill Gates alone has accumulated 80 billion my himself in his lifetime. It is just incredibly hard to wrap my mind about all of that wealth accumulated by one man.
I am not condemning his wealth or even suggesting it being confiscated. Just an observation of how big that is compared to a successful pension fund. I mean he could take over our COLA'd pension system and take care of all of us in the system and he would still have half his money. Now that definitely is one difference between a millionaire and a billionaire!


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I think we're saying the same thing...millionaires and billionaires are totally different animals...which is why the phrase does a dis-service to the important conversation about wealth concentration and policies associated with dealing with the issue.
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Old 02-06-2015, 10:00 PM   #60
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2016 the leading edge of the baby boomer generation pass 70, and are going to be forced to start withdrawing from tax-deferred accounts.


Before that, as more and more boomers hit Social Security eligibility, that program will be stressed beyond the ability to cope, since the "trust fund" is an illusion. There is no money there, it has all been spent.


Within the US, government debt continues to grow. Does anyone believe that it will ever be repaid, in funds that have any actual meaning or value?


What happens if/when the value of the US dollar approaches zero? What happens when foreign suppliers refuse the dollar, and will no longer sell anything to anyone in the US for dollars?


Good luck.
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