Having been in the IT world for about 25 years, much of writing code, my own personal feeling is that the truly intelligent, self-aware, sentient machine will never happen.
In fact, I think you could give the smartest people on the planet regarding AI (artificial intelligence) access to an unlimited number of infinitely fast processors, and an unlimited amount of infinitely fast memory and storage, and I still don't see it happening.
A sentient machine would have to be "bootstrapped" by something, and I think that something would have to be our own knowledge of how we as humans think and are sentient. But we don't know enough of all that to reproduce it (short of biological reproduction, ie, having a baby).
I would be willing to bet even another 2000 years from now, assuming technology continues to advance, we still wouldn't see a truly sentient machine. I just don't see it happening. Ever.
I remember back in the late 70s and early 80s, just as microprocessors were starting to become established, everyone was talking about AI, robots, and chess playing computers. I remember writing programs myself coding on a soldered together SWTP 6800 in assembly language trying to write "thinking" programs, "evolving" programs, etc., it was magic (to my young self anyway).
The trouble was, that there were increasingly complex systems, think about the avionics of a modern airliner, Deep Blue, etc. and what was called AI one year, was just a normal program a few years later. In the end even the term AI fell out of vogue, as it had no real meaning.
IMO we are still on the same track as we were when I started in computer software in the 70s, increasingly complex, connected, amazing, software doing increasingly wonderful things, and in the process making our lives better.
But I agree with LoneAspen, there will never be a silicon based sentient or conscious machine. Complex yes, amazing yes, but sentient or conscious no. They are simply machines that do what they are programmed to do.
On the other hand as silicon systems begin to reach the limits imposed by physics, we are seeing the rise of genetically engineered biological systems, which while fundamentally different, may eventually surpass silicon systems in importance. These are by their very nature not simply machines that do what they are told.
Will they be eventually able to have consciousness, we know biological systems can, who knows. To me this is where the real excitement of the next 100 years lies.
