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The State of the World in 24 Minutes
Old 11-28-2018, 01:33 PM   #1
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The State of the World in 24 Minutes

It took a couple days for me to get around to watching this and Wow!

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Meanwhile, as companies address more and more of this with software and the internet, they do it in new ways. We began with models that presumed low internet penetration, low speeds, little consumer readiness and little capital. Now all of those are inverted. So, we used to do apartment listings and now Opendoor will buy your home; we used to do restaurant reviews and now you can get a hot meal delivered to your door.
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Old 11-28-2018, 03:00 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by RonBoyd View Post
It took a couple days for me to get around to watching this and Wow!

I think your Signature Line said it Best:


"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu"
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Old 11-28-2018, 03:26 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat View Post
I think your Signature Line said it Best:[/I]
And yet there is Cassandra's Curse:

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The term originates in Greek mythology. Cassandra was a daughter of Priam, the King of Troy. Struck by her beauty, Apollo provided her with the gift of prophecy, but when Cassandra refused Apollo's romantic advances, he placed a curse ensuring that nobody would believe her warnings.
Beside, he was describing the Future in terms of the Present... or was it the Present in terms of the Future?
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"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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Old 11-28-2018, 03:43 PM   #4
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In the first few minutes he casually states that in the next 10 to 20 years all the gasoline stations will cease to exist along with the automobiles and parts companies. And then went on....

That's where I stopped watching.
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Old 11-28-2018, 04:02 PM   #5
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In the first few minutes he casually states that in the next 10 to 20 years all the gasoline stations will cease to exist along with the automobiles and parts companies. And then went on....

That's where I stopped watching.

Thanks, saved me some time.

Clearly, the vast majority of cars sold today, and at least for the next 5 years to be conservative, will be gas powered. The average age of cars on the road is now 12 years, so to even mention 10 years in that range is silly.

If EVs really take off, gas stations could be a lot rarer 20 years from now compared to today, but 'cease to exist"? No way. I really doubt that gas car sales will be near zero in 10 years, which is what we would need to see few on the road in 20 years.

Parts companies? Most of the repair parts we need for cars are common to an EV. When is the last time the average driver bought an exhaust valve?

But shocks, air conditioner parts, door handles, tires, wheels, etc, will all still be being built.

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Old 11-29-2018, 08:04 AM   #6
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I got past the cars and found it interesting.
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Old 11-29-2018, 08:24 AM   #7
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Andreessen Horowitz (also called a16z) is a private American venture capital firm.


They are in the betting business. I am unlikely to be around in 20 years to check their predictions.
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Old 11-29-2018, 09:25 AM   #8
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Wait a minute!
According to experts not so long ago, by 2020 we should be 1) Frozen due to global cooling, 2) Have no gasoline left 3) starving from overpopulation and 4) all be dead by a mutation of the AIDS virus.

To me, you can't extrapolate the future from a context of where you are now. The future belongs to things no one has even yet thought about. The good stuff comes from out of left field.

Way back who would've envisioned Amazon, On Demand streaming or cell phones? We had no context for it.
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Old 11-29-2018, 09:36 AM   #9
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Wait a minute!
According to experts not so long ago, by 2020 we should be 1) Frozen due to global cooling, 2) Have no gasoline left 3) starving from overpopulation and 4) all be dead by a mutation of the AIDS virus.

To me, you can't extrapolate the future from a context of where you are now. The future belongs to things no one has even yet thought about. The good stuff comes from out of left field.

Way back who would've envisioned Amazon, On Demand streaming or cell phones? We had no context for it.
You forgot Bird Flu, and we would all have brain tumors from our cell phones. Or was that power lines? Or 'Smart Meters'? Or Wi-Fi? Or micro-wave ovens?

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Old 11-29-2018, 11:54 AM   #10
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Wait a minute!
According to experts not so long ago, by 2020 we should be 1) Frozen due to global cooling, 2) Have no gasoline left 3) starving from overpopulation and 4) all be dead by a mutation of the AIDS virus.

To me, you can't extrapolate the future from a context of where you are now. The future belongs to things no one has even yet thought about. The good stuff comes from out of left field.

Way back who would've envisioned Amazon, On Demand streaming or cell phones? We had no context for it.


...cell phones: can you say “ Dick Tracy”
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Old 11-29-2018, 12:05 PM   #11
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I think looking at where we will be in 100 years is much more fascinating than where we will be in 20.


Will we even use our legs for modal transportation or will it be electric hoverboards and autonomous fixtures everywhere in our lives?


Nobody has reinvented the modern furnace or heating and cooling large spaces, will we overcome this with less to no energy somehow?


Will colonies or even just shipping occupy space, with data centers being up in the sky instead of on the ground?



And will we even eat food, or just take a capsule, injection or inhale our substance?



Will there be less hope or more hope than there is today?
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Old 11-29-2018, 12:06 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
In the first few minutes he casually states that in the next 10 to 20 years all the gasoline stations will cease to exist along with the automobiles and parts companies. And then went on....

That's where I stopped watching.
Yep. That's when I clicked off as well.
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