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There is no Bubble when Demand exceeds Supply
Old 02-11-2008, 09:48 AM   #1
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There is no Bubble when Demand exceeds Supply

I do believe there will be a lot of renters wishing they could buy at 2007 prices, you know, back when houses were cheap. Time to get your head out of the bottom of the barrel scrounging for foreclosures and buy where demand exceeds supply.

Hey Ha, are you in the market up there?

Forces are arrayed against overbuilding in Seattle - Puget Sound Business Journal (Seattle):
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Old 02-11-2008, 11:55 AM   #2
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Real estate has always been about location. So I would imagine what you are saying is dependent on the area.
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Old 02-11-2008, 12:13 PM   #3
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Real estate has always been about location.
Indeed. The house we're living in is worth maybe $280K in the panhandle of West Virginia. Put it in a similar setting (golf course community, backs up to a flood plain and a stocked trout stream) in the Washington, DC area and the price zooms to north of $5 million.
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Old 02-11-2008, 01:44 PM   #4
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In the Polk/Marion county area of Oregon rents are climbing and vacancy is extremly low - little being built in the way of multi-units. We are looking to do a 1031 exchange of a 5-plex into a single family home here. Lots of single family homes on the market. Plan is to move into the single family after renting it for a year or so, thus saving about 25% tax over a straight sale. That should give us an effective yield of 4.16%/year + a year of rent + any appreciation over the next 6 years. Also reduce our taxable income vs. renting out the 5-plex and get me out of dealing with 5 rental units. win win win. Only problem right now is the homes we are looking at aren't thrilling me until they get up into the stupid price range. McMansions don't excite me. When did i get so snooty-face?
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Old 02-11-2008, 02:09 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by honobob View Post
I do believe there will be a lot of renters wishing they could buy at 2007 prices, you know, back when houses were cheap. Time to get your head out of the bottom of the barrel scrounging for foreclosures and buy where demand exceeds supply.

Hey Ha, are you in the market up there?

Forces are arrayed against overbuilding in Seattle - Puget Sound Business Journal (Seattle):
I looked a little, and decided to wait. This article reflects a local act of faith, "Seattle is Different". (better)

I am not so sure. Is there any law that says that 25,000 new jobs will be created every year?

And everywhere I look, there are cranes building condos. If worse comes to worse, I miss a bottom, and possibly move out a few miles from the center, but on the new rapid transit line.

There is no reasonably priced single family housing that you would want to live in near the city center. And in fact, there is very little anywhere in the city of Seattle, except very expensive ($2+) new infill homes; and expensive to very expensive old but originally high quality homes.

All over the north end of town, 3-5 miles from city center, terrible old houses are occupied by a couple of yuppie lawyers. I suppose that barring a severe recession sometime over the next 20 years much of this will be replaced by multi-family, condos or rentals. It is already happening, with slightly attractive zero-lot- line townhouses and small condos.

The way I look at it, if I rent an attractive but old apartment, maintenance is on the landlord's dime. If I buy it, it becomes my problem. And I refuse to buy something that looks like someone forgot to flush the toilet.

I think one thing is a good bet at the right time- decent close in housing in safe neighborhoods. Supposedly where I live is safe, but there have been 3 murders near here in the last 6 weeks. (Areas with similar demographic but a bit more downscale.) There are only a few neighborhoods with urban amenities where the average non-adventurous person would feel ok, and still attractive yet close to downtown with reasonably good public transit.

These are going to be worth more every year I think.

Ever imagine what martial law would do for for relative real estate prices?

Ha
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