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U.S. Demand for Electricity Declined in 2019 and ...
Old 01-15-2020, 12:27 PM   #1
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U.S. Demand for Electricity Declined in 2019 and ...

Here's the lowdown on power generation and use for 2019 and earlier. Also, some interesting predictions about new power plants coming online (and shutting down) in 2020 and how the power will be generated:

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/01/15/us...ions-are-wild/

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Electricity sales in the US isn’t exactly a high-growth business. In 2019, total electricity sales (in gigawatt hours) to ultimate customers are estimated to have fallen; through the first 10 months, according to the EIA’s latest Electricity Monthly, total electricity sales declined 2.9% from the same period in 2018. The only sector to which electricity sales increased – and just by 0.6% – was transportation, a tiny sector covering subways and other electric mass-transit systems. Sales to the other sectors fell, in order of magnitude of the sector: residential (-2.4%), commercial (-2.0%), and industrial (-4.8%).

In terms of annual sales of electricity to ultimate customers from 2008 through 2019, an image of stagnation emerges. Based on the full-year 2019 estimate, electricity sales in gigawatt hours over the 11 years from 2008 through 2019 ticked up only 0.6%, interrupted by some bigger increases and declines in between.
Please read the comments below the article too!
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Old 01-15-2020, 12:51 PM   #2
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Cool. Good to know we're becoming more efficient. All those LED bulbs are helping.

I used to light the garage with (4) 4 foot double florescent tube (34 watt each) shop light fixtures which were very good compared to (2) 100 watt incandescent which were so dim you were in danger when using tools.

Now I have (8) 20 watt LED's which are better than the shoplights and use even less.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:03 PM   #3
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Cool. Good to know we're becoming more efficient. All those LED bulbs are helping.

I used to light the garage with (4) 4 foot double florescent tube (34 watt each) shop light fixtures which were very good compared to (2) 100 watt incandescent which were so dim you were in danger when using tools.

Now I have (8) 20 watt LED's which are better than the shoplights and use even less.
Maybe my arithmetic is not too good but 8x20 is more than 4x34.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:06 PM   #4
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Maybe my arithmetic is not too good but 8x20 is more than 4x34.
I thought so too, but RobbieB said the fluorescent fixtures were double.

So, it was 4x2x34 watts.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:10 PM   #5
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I thought so too, but RobbieB said the fluorescent fixtures were double.

So, it was 4x2x34 watts.
Probably correct, I missed that.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:13 PM   #6
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8 x 34 = 272 watts florescent (plus ballast)

8 x 20 = 160 LED total

Who's bad at math?
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:15 PM   #7
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Who's bad at math?
I am.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:20 PM   #8
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I am.
In your defense, Janet didn't say there would be math when you signed up.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:21 PM   #9
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Numbers is hard.

But the result is the garage has the best lighting it ever had. The LED fixtures are tiny and don't take up area like the shoplights did and the light is better dispersed. No on delay and it looks like daytime out there. Another bene is I installed fixtures with pull chains so they can be turned off individually if desired.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:25 PM   #10
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I remember reading somewhere that LEDs are only as efficient as fluorescent bulbs.

Search the Web again, and saw some info on how fluorescent efficiency varies between types. The best can match LEDs, but some are only 2/3 as efficient.

I still like LEDs because the light is warmer (compared to tubes), plus they are instant-on. Unfortunately, I stocked up on CFLs and long tubes, and it will take a while to use them up.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:31 PM   #11
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Unfortunately, I stocked up on CFLs and long tubes, and it will take a while to use them up.
Sunk cost fallacy.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:41 PM   #12
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Notice the quote says sales are down, not consumption. These sales don't include things like home solar.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:50 PM   #13
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Sunk cost fallacy.
?

As mentioned, these fluorescents are just as energy efficient as LEDs, despite some drawbacks.

Meanwhile, many early LEDs do not last that long, particularly the expensive high-wattage bulbs.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:53 PM   #14
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Sounded like good news, but tempered in that the “decrease” followed a spike in 2018, so the decline was a reversion to mean. But at least demand isn’t increasing, that’s nice.

Then I was happy to see cleaner power sources coming on, but I guess I need to wait and see the long term trend because of below. Hopefully we’ll continue to trend cleaner, as I’m less hopeful we’ll significantly reduce demand. Guess I’m having a glass half empty day, sorry...

Good read regardless, thanks.
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Part of the reason for the record addition of wind and solar power capacity is the phase-out of tax credits at the end of 2020. From then forward, wind and solar will have to stand on their own two feet.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:56 PM   #15
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Notice the lack of oil fired power plants in the U.S.? One commenter stated he thought that Hawaii was the only state that operates oil fired plants.
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Old 01-15-2020, 01:59 PM   #16
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Exelon is threatening to shut down numerous nuclear plants in Illinois. Demand is probably way down because of the mass exodus.
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Old 01-15-2020, 02:02 PM   #17
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The traditional "long tube" florescents had a good long life but those CFL's are another thing. I've had a lot more short failures with them than LEDs. I don't think I've had an LED ever fail so far and it been over 5 years. And those CFL's get hot too unlike the long tubes.
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Old 01-15-2020, 02:09 PM   #18
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Sounded like good news, but tempered in that the “decrease” followed a spike in 2018, so the decline was a reversion to mean. But at least demand isn’t increasing, that’s nice.
Keep in mind that the population has continued to increase, so that means demand is actually falling on a per capita basis.
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Old 01-15-2020, 02:10 PM   #19
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I still like LEDs because the light is warmer (compared to tubes), plus they are instant-on. Unfortunately, I stocked up on CFLs and long tubes, and it will take a while to use them up.
We had lots of LEDs in our old house, just moved into a new house with all CFL’s. Waiting for them to come fully on is really annoying, but I can’t bring myself to throw out working CFL’s to replace with LED’s so we’re stuck waiting - first world problem. I’ll be pleased as the CFL’s fail, but I expect it will take years...
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Old 01-15-2020, 03:43 PM   #20
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We had lots of LEDs in our old house, just moved into a new house with all CFL’s. Waiting for them to come fully on is really annoying, but I can’t bring myself to throw out working CFL’s to replace with LED’s so we’re stuck waiting - first world problem. I’ll be pleased as the CFL’s fail, but I expect it will take years...

Our new house had a combination of CFLs and incandescent bulbs. I replaced the incandescent bulbs with LEDs, and shifted the remaining CFLs into places where they would be less noticeable or annoying.
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