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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 05:08 PM   #41
 
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

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Originally Posted by Diaper Bunny
Isnt it the case that all prior pandemics occurred prior to any understanding of diseases and how they spread? Given modern understanding of infectious diseases, isnt it probable that widespread infection and death would be pretty limited?
That's not the thinking among scientists and guys that have actually been to Medical School.
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 05:14 PM   #42
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

I've heard about power and water being shut off in the event of bird flu. Why would that be a possibility? Couldn't we always boil water for 5 min. to kill the virii?
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 05:17 PM   #43
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

From a couple of experts on SARS and avian influenza: http://www.esi-topics.com/avian/inte...iris_Guan.html

. . . once it emerges, pandemic influenza is likely to have a much greater impact that SARS did. Pandemic influenza will not be stopped by the public health measures used to stop SARS transmission in the community. From past experience we know that influenza pandemics will sweep the world within the first eight to nine months of its emergence. The spread will possibly be much faster now, with the great increase in air travel. The major unknown is the severity of human disease associated with such a pandemic. The pandemic of 1968 was relatively mild while that of 1918 was associated with a high severity of clinical disease. What we know about human disease associated with H5N1 so far is not too reassuring. Of course H5N1 may become less virulent to humans as it adapts better to human transmission, but this is not inevitable.

Certainly pandemic flu, as its original hosts are different. We knew SARS virus mainly harbored in wild animals in the markets, such as civets—but there are only a small number of those animals. After closing the wildlife markets, the SARS virus did not come back in the last year. We also averted a second outbreak in early 2004. However, avian influenza has millions and millions of hosts and those hosts may migrate long distances just within one day. So, it is much more difficult to contain bird flu than SARS.
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 05:35 PM   #44
 
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......


This interview with Oprah Winfrey was enough of a wake up call for me. - Hopefully it does not happen, but it's not a big deal to stockpile a bit of food and water.



Quote:
What is bird flu?
Everybody's had the flu at some time in their lives, with its familiar symptoms: aches, chills, fatigue and cough. So why is the "bird flu" making so many headlines?

The deadly virus H5N1 is a strain of influenza normally found only in chickens, turkeys and a variety of other birds. In certain countries including Vietnam, Indonesia, China, Thailand, Cambodia, Egypt and Turkey, this H5N1 virus has spread to a handful of humans. To date, of the 218 people who have been infected by bird flu, more than half have died. The victims are believed to have contracted bird flu after coming in contact with feces, blood or mucus of infected birds.

At the moment there is not conclusive evidence that the virus can spread from one human to another. However, this could soon change because the bird flu virus mutates so rapidly. If a mutated strain were able to spread from human to human—an occurrence some medical experts say is inevitable—this highly contagious flu could travel around the globe in a matter of days, infecting every city in every country on the planet.

How does bird flu differ from seasonal flu?
According to Dr. Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert from the University of Minnesota, understanding the different kinds of influenza viruses can help explain why bird flu is so potentially deadly.

"There really are, in a sense, three different kinds of influenza viruses," he says. "There is that which naturally lives in wild birds. That virus doesn't really hurt us very often."

The second type of influenza, called seasonal flu, is the one most know. Though it is common, this flu virus kills 36,000 people a year, Dr. Osterholm says.

The third kind of influenza virus is the one that has many people extremely worried. It is a flu virus that has mutated from affecting only birds to one that can infect both birds and humans. "That's when we see a pandemic, or a worldwide epidemic," Dr. Osterholm says. "And that's what we worry about."

Why does a flu virus mutate? "When that virus lives inside a bird, it's uniquely made to live inside the cell of a bird," Dr. Osterholm explains. However, "the influenza virus is one of the sloppiest, most indiscreet, most promiscuous viruses we know. It basically doesn't know how to reproduce itself very well, and it makes mistakes all the time. That's called a mutation. Some of those mutations will actually survive, and when they survive they actually get closer and closer to allowing it to get inside a human cell. Imagine the chicken virus is a key and the chicken cell is the lock. It gets in easily. The human cell is the lock. The chicken key doesn't work well in it. Over time the mutations change that key just enough so now it readily gets inside a human cell. That's what we're worried about."

Should I really be worried?
Dr. Osterholm says there are a few troubling aspects to bird flu.

Regular flu shots do not work to prevent transmission of bird flu. "Influenza viruses are unique," he says. "We talk about this H5N1, the bird virus. 'H' and 'N' just stand for parts of the virus. Every year we tell people to get a flu shot because of the mutation problem. This indiscreet, sloppy reproduction changes enough from year to year that we actually need to get a new flu shot every year, unlike other viruses like measles that do not mutate nearly as much."

One year of working to create a bird flu vaccine would only yield enough for about 300 million people: less than 5 percent of the world's population.

Another major concern is the period in which influenza is at its most contagious—a day before symptoms become known. "So right now if I have an influenza infection, and I'm going to be sick tonight, at midnight when I wake up in the middle of the night with muscle aches, fever and chills, I've already exposed [others to the virus]," Dr. Osterholm tells Oprah. This makes quarantining those infected with the virus incredibly difficult, if not impossible.

To see what a worst-case scenario flu pandemic looks like, Dr. Osterholm points to historical precedent. Though there were other smaller scale pandemics in 1957–58 and 1968–69, the plague of 1918 was clearly the worst. As recounted in historian John M. Berry's The Great Influenza, the 1918 pandemic killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide. (some experts are predicting 3 BILLION deaths with the bird flu pandemic).

We may not get such a deadly strain of bird flu, but as for completely escaping another pandemic, Dr. Osterholm says,...

"This is not a probability issue, it's going to happen.


What we don't know is which strain it's going to be or when it's going to happen. It could be tonight. It could be 10 years from now. The bottom line is we have a lot to do to get better prepared."

Dr. Osterholm points to the lack of sufficient drugs, hospital beds and ventilators as key problems if a pandemic were to break out. However, it's not too late to start planning, he says.
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 05:53 PM   #45
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

Quote:
"This is not a probability issue, it's going to happen.

What we don't know is which strain it's going to be or when it's going to happen. It could be tonight. It could be 10 years from now. The bottom line is we have a lot to do to get better prepared."

Dr. Osterholm points to the lack of sufficient drugs, hospital beds and ventilators as key problems if a pandemic were to break out. However, it's not too late to start planning, he says.
I see the shibboleth here. See the conflations. Look into my eyes.. concenetrate on the pocket watch as it sways back and forth... back and forth... Nice blue dress you're wearin' Monica.

So, there's a Bird flu. It's a bu tahts beenm around for tousands of yrs. Moving right along lets talk about epidemics and pandemics and preparedness for something we don't even know the "what" and "when" about.

I keep saying why such a hard-on over Bird Flu? Why not measles or one of the 10,000 other viruses that COULD mutate. Dont askl which one. We KNOW it will happen. Bu apparently the bird flu has about as much chance an anything else (But we just dont know). The game is rigged. Anybody thinks it's not is being had.

Now, does that mean NO pandemic will happen...? No of course not. But what do tehse ass*les mean by we have to be better prepared. Better prepared for what? And HOW?

Bird flu = No more threat than before bird flu. There is ovbviously something else going on here
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 06:05 PM   #46
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

We may not get such a deadly strain of bird flu, but as for completely escaping another pandemic, Dr. Osterholm says "this is not a probability issue, it's going to happen".

So some sort of pandemic will happen in the indefinite future. Looks like flu pandemics of one degree or another have happened a few times in the last century or so. I guess we can count on another one in the next few decades. Could be minor, could be severe. Could be bird flu or could be regular flu. I think I'll keep getting my flu shot and trying to wash my hands frequently. And not eat chicken sushi too often.

Bird flu seems like another one of those things that has a small probability of manifesting itself over the next few years or decades. Combine that with a small chance that I'll be exposed to it, and a small chance I'll contract it (I'm getting the flu vaccine) and combine that with a small chance of death if treated, and combine that with... you get the point. Seems another thing to get neurotic about. Probably the best public health suggestion is to wash your hands frequently and especially before touching your face, hair, or mucus membranes, or eating food.
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 06:11 PM   #47
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

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We may not get such a deadly strain of bird flu, but as for completely escaping another pandemic, Dr. Osterholm says "this is not a probability issue, it's going to happen".

So some sort of pandemic will happen in the indefinite future. Looks like flu pandemics of one degree or another have happened a few times in the last century or so. I guess we can count on another one in the next few decades. Could be minor, could be severe.
Exactly. So why are they bringing it up NOW as if it were something new? And why are they hell bent on connecting it to Bird Flu while simulatenously denying that bird flu itself is any more meaningful to the discussion as any other germ?

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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 06:14 PM   #48
 
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

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Originally Posted by razztazz
Exactly. So why are they bringing it up NOW as if it were something new? And why are they hell bent on connecting it to Bird Flu while simulatenously denying that bird flu itself is any more meaningful to the discussion as any other germ?

I guess you know more. Oprah should have interviewed you also. You could have debated Dr. Osterholm instead of us nimrods on the internet.
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 06:27 PM   #49
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

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I guess you know more. Oprah should have interviewed you also. You could have debated Dr. Osterholm instead of us nimrods on the internet.
I'd ask him the same G/D question and expect a real answer. Not some expert making a naked appeal to his own authority as evidence and ejaculating thru his mouth.

Every profession is a conspiracy against the laity. GB Shaw
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 07:15 PM   #50
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

Why all this concern over a little flu when we know an asteroid is going to smack into the earth in 2036?

Will a can of sardines help?
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 08:30 PM   #51
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

I'm not sure I understand the "bah humbuggery" about bird flu. The reason it could be a big deal is, i think, simple:
1) The mortality among humans who actually contract flu is very high (better than 20%). Compare this to the run-of-the-mill flu that we pass around every year (low mortality) . This is a fact.
2) Influenza has a proven ability to migrate cross-species and become infectious to humans. This happens routinely--the flu we pass around every year generally arises from a flu virus in non-human populations that crosses over into the human population. (This often happens when a person sick with last year's flu is exposed to an animal flu strain. The viruses basically dump their respective genetic material into the nucleus of the cells of the infected person, where they hijack the replication mechanism to produce copies of themselves. If a person "catches" two different viruses at the same time, there's a fair chance that the resulting viruses will have swapped some genetic material while in the poor guy's cells. The possible result--a new disease that is communicable between people but has the properties of the flu that formerly existed only in non-human animals). In a given year, thousands of people might be exposed to BOTH communicable flu and animal starins (including H5N). The "right" recombination only as to happen one time for a pandemic to begin.

With the H5N virus we have a flu that can cause relatively high human mortality and only needs to attain the ability to cross over into the human population. Oh, and it now thrives in hosts that migrate internationaly AND live in close proximity to humans. Experts who know seem to believe this threat is considerable, and I trust their expertise in these issues more than my own ability to somehow deduce the threat myself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
I've heard about power and water being shut off in the event of bird flu. Why would that be a possibility? Couldn't we always boil water for 5 min. to kill the virii?
The problem sn't transmission of the virus through te water The problem is that the folks at the waterworks, electric company, your gas station, the supermarket won't come to work if this is a nasty bug. Everyone will be avoiding other folks, and that means not going to work. I wonder if some type of bizzare "non-contact economy" might develop in short order--gas will be pay at the pump only, the guy at the 7-11 will sell you a gal of milk ($20) through the window slot, but he'll only take credit cards, etc)
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-14-2006, 09:42 PM   #52
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

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Originally Posted by samclem
* *1) The mortality among humans who actually contract flu is very high (better than 20%).* Compare this to the run-of-the-mill flu that we pass around every year (low mortality) . *
High mortality means that the bug is killing its host, and its means of transmission.* * That's why pandemics are so rare.* * You need the right combination of something deadly + allows the host to live long enough to spread the bug + infects part of the body that makes it easy to spread.

Most flu bugs infect the upper-respiratory tract where they can easily become airborne and/or spread to surfaces.* * If this thing infects deep lung tissue, for example, it's not going to spread as easily as a cold.

If it mutates so that it is more easily spread, I think chances are good that it will also be less harmful.
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-15-2006, 01:57 PM   #53
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

Eh, you doomsayers are probably right-- human transmission has already happened.

"Experts said there could have been limited human-to-human transmission in this cluster case."

Spouse has spent the last couple days at a PACOM "wargame" of the military's response to pandemic influenza. Don't worry about the terminology-- "wargame" reflects a limited vocabulary creativity, not any actual influenza response initiatives or hygiene/sanitation planning.

The bad news is that if this tabletop exercise was any indication, you want the military handling your pandemic influenza response about as much as you want it handled by your helpful governmental agencies.

The good news is that the 1918 pandemic was greatly assisted by the military's policy of transferring their people around, despite the warnings of their own doctors. The influenza is believed most dangerous to those in the age group 18-40, and it happens pretty quickly to them after infection. Coincidentally this is the highest population group in the U.S. military. When today's H5N1 hits a military base, movement will be halted under pain of UCMJ. The military does not want to be accused of spreading the problem and can't afford to be crippled by it.

Spouse says that the best thing to do appears to be to lock your doors, wash your hands, and hunker down with a can of tuna fish. Don't worry about Tamiflu or even face masks. If you can handle a week or two at home alone with your family, then that wave of influenza will pass by and give you a chance to restock before the next wave passes through.

Oh, and while you're waiting for the "all clear" to sound, please don't feed the birds. It only facilitates the virus' mutuation.

I'm buying stock in tuna canners and in the companies making those waterless hand sanitizers.
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-15-2006, 03:11 PM   #54
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

Good article on H5N1 at Wikipedia.

H5N1 as an avian virus preferentially binds to what are known as α2,3 galactose receptors, which populate the avian respiratory tract from the nose to the lungs. These receptors are virtually absent in humans, occurring only in and around the alveoli, structures deep in the lungs where oxygen is passed to the blood. Therefore, the virus is not easily expelled by coughing and sneezing, the usual route of transmission.
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-15-2006, 04:27 PM   #55
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
That's not the thinking among scientists and guys that have actually been to Medical School.
Was there a sale on wiseguy pills at trader joes and i missed it?
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-15-2006, 04:37 PM   #56
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

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That's not the thinking among scientists and guys that have actually been to Medical School.
And can therefore make a lot of money jerking people off by impressing them wth their clairvoyance
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-15-2006, 04:37 PM   #57
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

That was my first reply, but I didnt wanna look like I didnt miss the sale after all
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-15-2006, 04:45 PM   #58
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

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Originally Posted by wab
Good article on H5N1 at Wikipedia.

H5N1 as an avian virus preferentially binds to what are known as α2,3 galactose receptors, which populate the avian respiratory tract from the nose to the lungs. These receptors are virtually absent in humans, occurring only in and around the alveoli, structures deep in the lungs where oxygen is passed to the blood. Therefore, the virus is not easily expelled by coughing and sneezing, the usual route of transmission.
wab,

Thanks for the link to the wikipedia article. The article contained many nits-o-info that, to me, justified the concern of the the medical/publc health community over this issue. We all understand that H5N1 isn't easily transmitted between humans, but that's the case with many of the flu viruses that eventualy do evolve to attain high contagion in human populations. Of course, maybe the majority of virologists, epidemiologists, and public health experts are wrong. I hope so.

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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-15-2006, 05:02 PM   #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem
We all understand that H5N1 isn't easily transmitted between humans, but that's the case with many of the flu viruses that eventualy do evolve to attain high contagion in human populations.* Of course, maybe the majority of virologists, epidemiologists, and public health experts are wrong.* I hope so.
What exactly are all these experts predicting?* * I really don't have the ability to analyze the threat myself, so I really want to know.* *Here's my simple-minded question:

If this thing kills by infecting deep lung tissue, that means it's not easily transmitted, right?* * And if it mutates so that it is easily transmitted, doesn't that mean that the new strain won't be infecting deep lung tissue and won't be as lethal?

What does a virus look like that is lethal and easily transmitted?

My understanding of the 1918 pandemic was that the real killers were secondary infections (like pneumonia).* *I assume that we're better prepared with antibiotics today.* *Maybe we need the combination of a nasty virus and a resistant bacteria to get us into real trouble.
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......
Old 06-15-2006, 05:12 PM   #60
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Re: What are you doing to survive the Bird Flu......

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My understanding of the 1918 pandemic was that the real killers were secondary infections (like pneumonia).* *I assume that we're better prepared with antibiotics today.* *Maybe we need the combination of a nasty virus and a resistant bacteria to get us into real trouble.
Read "The Great Influenza". The problem was that immune systems tended to hyper-react by generating large numbers of antibodies to kill the virus. People's lungs were being destroyed by immune-system response as they drowned in their own fluids. The response was worst in those with the healthiest and best-developed immune systems-- teenagers & young adults. It's the immune-system equivalent to dying of an asthma attack.

I'm not aware of antibiotics that can kill a virus. Bacteria, sure, but not viruses. About all you can do with a virus is treat the symptoms or come up with a vaccine-- some sort of magic bullet.

Medical science has spent the last century developing magic bullets, and the art of "treating the symptoms" has declined. Some early 20th-century physicians actually had higher survival rates for their pneumonia patients than their 21st-century counterparts.
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