Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 03-14-2014, 09:10 PM   #61
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,197
Some people say that the plane was commandeered and flown west below radar. My point is that if true, someone would notice.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
__________________

__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-14-2014, 09:33 PM   #62
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Rustic23's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 3,624
Al, I agree, that was kind of the case I was trying to make, however, 'below radar' is in the eye of the beholder. Example, for me it would be below 200 ft., to a center radar operator, it may be 10,000 ft. or higher. It could also be that when people i.e. talking heads, say below radar range they really mean that there was 'lost radar contact'. In most cases, when the transponder is turned off, center you looses radar contact. Not sure of this point, but I think center type radar normally is set to read transponder codes and not skin paint. Above 18,000 ft all aircraft have to be on an IFR (instrument flight plan) and be followed by center. There is no need to skin paint as there are not suppose to be any other aircraft up there, and all aircraft on IFR have to have a transponder.

I guess my point is that the news media is tossing around this 'below radar range' like it is some certain altitude. While I have not seen a finale altitude readouts, the lowest altitude I heard them talk about is 23,000 ft, and I would certainly not hear a plane go over at that altitude.
__________________

__________________
If it is after 5:00 when I post I reserve the right to disavow anything I posted.
Rustic23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2014, 09:53 PM   #63
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,264
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
If a 777 went over my house at 3,000 feet at 2 AM I would wake up, and when I heard about the disappearance I would call someone.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
I don't think I would. If I did the math right, a 777 at 3,000 ft straight above would look about 2" long at arms length. I've seen them that close, and they are not that loud.

And if you are in a flight path, you wouldn't give it a second thought.


-ERD50


Sent from the laptop on my desk using Chromium Browser
__________________
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2014, 10:23 PM   #64
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic23 View Post
Both pilot and co-pilot have oxygen mask readily available. The first thing in an emergency with smoke in the cockpit is to put on the mask and go to 100% oxygen.
And even at 35K ft, a person has 30-60 seconds of useful consciousness to get the quick-don mask on his face (somewhat less than that if it is a rapid decompression, but it only takes 3-5 seconds to get the mask on).

One point made earlier that bears repeating: The theoretical detection/tracking capability of modern military early warning/target tracking radars is one thing. The ability to notice a single target with no other heads-up and when there's no higher state of military readiness is quite another. Many/most of the long-range military radars aren't even operating most of the time, the operators aren't being especially attentive, they don't have the settings optimized to detect a target in ground clutter, etc.

This is a strange case.
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2014, 11:56 PM   #65
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,885
The thinking now is that perhaps some pirates took the plane and maybe even landed somewhere. After all, the plane in water was just an assumed theory.
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-15-2014, 08:02 AM   #66
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bikerdude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
Lost airliner was diverted deliberately: Malaysian PM

"Search operations by navies and aircraft from more than a dozen nations were immediately called off in the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea to the east of Malaysia, where the plane dropped off civilian air traffic control screens at 1:22 a.m. last Saturday (1722 GMT on Friday)."
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
Bikerdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-15-2014, 05:34 PM   #67
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 660
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bikerdude View Post
Lost airliner was diverted deliberately: Malaysian PM

"Search operations by navies and aircraft from more than a dozen nations were immediately called off in the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea to the east of Malaysia, where the plane dropped off civilian air traffic control screens at 1:22 a.m. last Saturday (1722 GMT on Friday)."
From the article:
Quote:
Najib said the plane's final communication with satellites placed it somewhere in one of two corridors: a northern arc stretching from northern Thailand to the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, or a southern one stretching from Indonesia to the vast southern Indian Ocean.
Does anyone with an aviation background know what this means? It is extremely tempting to infer that the authorities think they have a good handle on the plane's longitude at the point of last contact, but don't have a clue as to the latitude, except for the broad limit mandated by the fact that the plane couldn't fly farther than its fuel supply would take it. That would mean that it could have been anywhere between Kazakhstan in the north and somewhere near the island of Mauritius in the south.

How they estimated longitude is a mystery, but a reasonable guess might be that the pings from the plane were picked up by the closest satellite, and they could have figured out the location of the satellite at the time of the last contact.
__________________
karluk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-15-2014, 06:54 PM   #68
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bikerdude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
Quote:
Originally Posted by karluk View Post
From the article:

Does anyone with an aviation background know what this means? It is extremely tempting to infer that the authorities think they have a good handle on the plane's longitude at the point of last contact, but don't have a clue as to the latitude, except for the broad limit mandated by the fact that the plane couldn't fly farther than its fuel supply would take it. That would mean that it could have been anywhere between Kazakhstan in the north and somewhere near the island of Mauritius in the south.

How they estimated longitude is a mystery, but a reasonable guess might be that the pings from the plane were picked up by the closest satellite, and they could have figured out the location of the satellite at the time of the last contact.
That's exactly how it was explained on NBC news tonight. Some enterprising people determined they could measure the planes distance from the satellite and therefor have the longitude.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
Bikerdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 09:25 AM   #69
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,197
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Quote:
If a 777 went over my house at 3,000 feet at 2 AM I would wake up, and when I heard about the disappearance I would call someone.
I don't think I would. If I did the math right, a 777 at 3,000 ft straight above would look about 2" long at arms length. I've seen them that close, and they are not that loud.

And if you are in a flight path, you wouldn't give it a second thought.
Yes, I was kind of assuming that the path over the peninsula is not a normal flight path. That's why I would wake up. We never have any jets go over our house within audible range, so that new noise would wake me up.
__________________
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 10:16 AM   #70
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,197
I see the press, at least, as making a lot of assumptions that aren't valid. Hopefully, the authorities are thinking more rationally and have more information.

And I admit, I'm perhaps too wedded to my theory based on my New Zealand oil rig buddy. Why hasn't the press said "We discount that observation because..." And why isn't that guy on all the morning talk shows at this point?

But here's an example of some typical press assumptions that I don't agree with:

Paraphrasing: The second reporting system was shut off 12 minutes after the first, indicating that it was not a catastrophic event, but instead an intentional act.

But I have no problem postulating a small fire that spread, causing one system to fail, and then later, another system.

In the same way, I have no problem with a gradually failing computer system which could cause the plane to change course multiple times. Sure, "evidence is consistent with someone acting deliberately from inside the plane," but that doesn't mean that that's what happened.

Remember the plane, that, in 1999, was flying from Orlando to Dallas? It depressurized, the pilots died, and it made a right turn and ended up in South Dakota.

And some news stations act as if it's suspicious that one of the pilots had a flight simulator at home, suggesting that he used it to plan this commandeering. Would you really need a flight simulator to plan something like this?

So I still like my theory: Fire in the cockpit, pilots die, systems gradually fail, passengers die, plane flies around aimlessly, crashes in water, sinks. Perhaps all the pieces didn't sink, but we just haven't found anything yet.

And I like this photo on abcnews.com:

Search2.jpg

If that's how they're searching, with a guy looking intently out a tiny window with binoculars, they're never going to find anything. When I see that picture, I imagine the pilot calling back, "Find anything yet, Bob?"

Sorry for joke -- I know it's a tragedy for the families.
__________________
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 10:31 AM   #71
Moderator
Alan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Eee Bah Gum
Posts: 21,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by karluk View Post
From the article:

Does anyone with an aviation background know what this means? It is extremely tempting to infer that the authorities think they have a good handle on the plane's longitude at the point of last contact, but don't have a clue as to the latitude, except for the broad limit mandated by the fact that the plane couldn't fly farther than its fuel supply would take it. That would mean that it could have been anywhere between Kazakhstan in the north and somewhere near the island of Mauritius in the south.

How they estimated longitude is a mystery, but a reasonable guess might be that the pings from the plane were picked up by the closest satellite, and they could have figured out the location of the satellite at the time of the last contact.
Apparently the aircraft engines periodically transmit bursts of diagnostic data which can be picked up by satellites and passed on to the manufacturer (Rolls Royce?).

If a satellite picks up a transmission it will know the exact time it received the signal and knowing the time means knowing the longitude. One of the early X prizes was from the UK to the first person to produce an extremely accurate clock that was sea worthy so that ships at sea could calculate exactly where they were by measuring the time relative to Greenwich. (Latitude can be calculated from the star positions)
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Now it's adventure before dementia
Alan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 10:35 AM   #72
Moderator
Alan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Eee Bah Gum
Posts: 21,085
Although it took 2 years to locate the Air France plane that went missing in the south Atlantic, it was men with binoculars that first spotted wreckage floating on the surface of the ocean a few days after it went missing that convinced authorities that it had crashed into the ocean.
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Now it's adventure before dementia
Alan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 10:55 AM   #73
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MooreBonds's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 2,091
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
But here's an example of some typical press assumptions that I don't agree with:

Paraphrasing: The second reporting system was shut off 12 minutes after the first, indicating that it was not a catastrophic event, but instead an intentional act.

But I have no problem postulating a small fire that spread, causing one system to fail, and then later, another system.
Current reports indicate that the left turn was a pre-programmed path. Either the computer went haywire and somehow over-wrote the previously programmed flight path with this new flight path in-flight...or (the far more likely scenario) someone else manually input this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
Attachment 18411

If that's how they're searching, with a guy looking intently out a tiny window with binoculars, they're never going to find anything. When I see that picture, I imagine the pilot calling back, "Find anything yet, Bob?"

Sorry for joke -- I know it's a tragedy for the families.
I realize it may look 'odd'...but honestly, how do you expect them to be searching over an area that could potentially be as large as 10,000,000 square miles in an ocean? They don't have planes with 12ft tall side windows to look out of. The pilots' windows don't have the same vantage point as the passenger's windows (plus the pilots are watching the flight controls). Do you expect them to drag people with 200ft towlines out the back of the plane, dangling at 20,000 ft with an air tank?

Helicopters are obviously better - but you can't fly up at 20,000 ft with them, and they're just a tad slower than airplanes.

Even if you had 20 mile visibility out from each side of the plane at 20,000 ft, flying at 400mph, that's only 16,000 sq miles you can cover per hour, per plane. With 10,000,000 sq miles, that's 625 hours with one plane. Or even 62 hours with 100 planes working non-stop. And that assumes no cloud cover or anything else limiting your visibility to less than 20 miles.

And even if there are things floating in the ocean, after 1 week+, odds are there would be a pretty good dispersal by now of whatever's left floating on the surface.
__________________
Dryer sheets Schmyer sheets
MooreBonds is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 11:04 AM   #74
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,846
Some of the news media continue to suggest pilot suicide but that makes no sense to me. In my mind, simple pilot suicide is eliminated as a possibility because if the pilot was going to commit suicide, and had no other nefarious terrorist plans, then why would he bother to turn off the transponders and hide his position? It's not like anybody could stop him.

My guess is that the pilot was up to no good.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 11:06 AM   #75
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 660
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan View Post
One of the early X prizes was from the UK to the first person to produce an extremely accurate clock that was sea worthy so that ships at sea could calculate exactly where they were by measuring the time relative to Greenwich.
I am extremely familiar with the story of John Harrison's invention of the chronometer, although I had never heard of him until visiting the Royal Observatory in Greenwich. My whole family was extremely impressed with his painstaking efforts over many decades to refine and improve on his devices until finally achieving the required accuracy - with a design that looks like a slightly oversized pocket watch. Harrison strikes me as the British embodiment of Edison's famous quote about genius being 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. DS used him on his college admissions essay as his ideal of how to succeed in life.
__________________
karluk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 11:29 AM   #76
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
My guess is that the pilot was up to no good.
That's quite possible, but I think it's equally possible that the jet was commandeered by someone else. It sounds like security awareness /discipline of the crew was not very good. If the cockpit door was not secured, someone could have taken over quickly before the crew had a chance to react.

It seems strange that the Malaysian authorities waited almost a week before searching the homes of the flight crew.

Very rapid fire/explosion on the flight deck: I guess it's possible, and interruption of electrical systems could explain the lack of transponder/ACARS transmissions. But it's inconsistent with the plane staying airborne for 4+ hours more (if that's accurate), other transmissions from the plane continuing (i.e some electrical systems remaining operational).
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 11:32 AM   #77
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,846
Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post
That's quite possible, but I think it's equally possible that the jet was commandeered by someone else.
That's possible too, and maybe it was those two guys with stolen passports. But pilot suicide? I just don't see it.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 11:33 AM   #78
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bikerdude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
Watching the Sunday morning pundits I was surprised that not one asked 'what about the passengers'. I mean, would you expect 277 people and 10 crew to twiddle their thumbs while being flown off course for 7 hours? So either the passengers were confronted with overwhelming force or they were dead or unconscious. Move over Amelia Earhart.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
Bikerdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 11:42 AM   #79
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Rustic23's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 3,624
Al,
The picture is accurate. I was involved in trying to find an F-111 that went down north of Las Vegas. We, about four of us in the back end of a C-130, spent hours doing just that. Finding a crash sight on land, from the air, is often more difficult than the water. Especially if there is no fire involved. The F-111 was found about a year later by some hunters. It had snowed the day after the crash and the plane was covered up.

I think it is entirely possible it may be a long time before they find this plane.
__________________
If it is after 5:00 when I post I reserve the right to disavow anything I posted.
Rustic23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2014, 11:51 AM   #80
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Another new factoid: The ACARS transmissions stopped sometime before the last crew communications with ATC. More here: (NYT link). That significantly reduces the likelihood of the "sudden fire/explosion on the flight deck" explanation, but is consistent with either crew or outsider seizure of the plane.
__________________

__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Airline tickets farmerEd Other topics 15 08-08-2006 09:07 PM
Isn't the airline supposed to check your ticket? soupcxan Other topics 9 06-06-2006 09:32 AM
Airline Stock? Craig FIRE and Money 17 01-04-2006 11:11 PM
Senators resolve airline pension fight newellcr Young Dreamers 8 10-07-2005 12:39 PM
What's your favorite airline? GTM Life after FIRE 24 04-25-2005 08:50 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:40 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.