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Old 03-17-2014, 11:23 AM   #101
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This is turning out to be quite the mystery. My instinct tells me they are not going to find this plane any time soon, if at all. It may show up many years later when someone discovers it by accident. And I suspect we will never really know what happened or why, although many theories will be floated for years to come.
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Old 03-17-2014, 12:36 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by robnplunder View Post
Now, they are zooming in on the co-pilot who communicated the last words heard from the plane. I'd assume it is pretty common for co-pilot to communicate to ground on routine matters?

Here is pretty much how it works.
http://www.ifrjethops.com/air-traffic-control-basics

When departure control hands you off you often end with "good day"
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Old 03-17-2014, 02:00 PM   #103
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I found it typical of the entire situation that yesterday the NY Times reported:
SEPANG, Malaysia — A signaling system was disabled on the missing Malaysia Airlines jet before a pilot spoke to air traffic control without mentioning any trouble, a senior Malaysian official said Sunday, reinforcing theories that one or both of the pilots may have been involved in diverting the plane and adding urgency to the investigation of their pasts and possible motivations.

But that was a misinterpretation of the data (BBC):
Officials say the sign-off to air traffic controllers came at 01:19 as it left Malaysian airspace.


The last transmission from the plane's Aircraft and Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was received at 01:07.


"We don't know when the ACARS was switched off after that," Mr Ahmad Jauhari said. "It was supposed to transmit 30 minutes from there, but that transmission did not come through."


The plane disappeared from air traffic controllers' screens at 01:21, when it was over the South China Sea.
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Old 03-17-2014, 03:52 PM   #104
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So far the initial non-response and search for the souls on board makes the Keystone Kops look well oiled, highly efficient and competent.

From my days of flying as fare in single engine helicopters and small planes over open ocean in Alaska, all pilots on departure communicating with the tower, before advising of the next waypoint always referred to number of souls on bord.

It is not the aircraft but the people on board that counts. Voltaire, in Candide has a method for motivating generals. Actually the reference is to Admirals, what's good for the goose.....
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Old 03-18-2014, 01:55 PM   #105
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Not a pilot, but this theory seems at least as good as others I've heard...

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com
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Old 03-18-2014, 02:08 PM   #106
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I like the theory that the plane made an emergency turn towards the runway at Pulau Langkawi based on its reasonableness and simplicity, but question how well it fits the evidence. The article seems to blend two completely different scenarios of (1) being on autopilot until running out of fuel and (2) being under manual control of a pilot who was making drastic changes in elevation. I also question whether an autopilot programmed to head towards Pulau Langkawi is consistent with the possible location of the plane as determined by the final satellite communication. It looks to me as if a course towards Pulau Langkawi would be headed in the general direction of the southern tip of Africa. If the crew were incapacitated and the plane continued on this route until running out of fuel, it seems to me that it would have ended up quite a bit farther west than the satellite data would allow.
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Old 03-18-2014, 02:13 PM   #107
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Not a pilot, but this theory seems at least as good as others I've heard...

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com
I agree HFWR. Sounds very plausible.
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Old 03-18-2014, 02:43 PM   #108
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I agree HFWR. Sounds very plausible.
It does sound reasonable but how does one explain that the last ping from the aircraft was somewhere along one of those arcs? How would the aircraft change course again, to the north or south? I guess the big question is, was this course change accidental or not.
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Old 03-18-2014, 02:45 PM   #109
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I like the theory that the plane made an emergency turn towards the runway at Pulau Langkawi based on its reasonableness and simplicity, but question how well it fits the evidence. The article seems to blend two completely different scenarios of (1) being on autopilot until running out of fuel and (2) being under manual control of a pilot who was making drastic changes in elevation. I also question whether an autopilot programmed to head towards Pulau Langkawi is consistent with the possible location of the plane as determined by the final satellite communication. It looks to me as if a course towards Pulau Langkawi would be headed in the general direction of the southern tip of Africa. If the crew were incapacitated and the plane continued on this route until running out of fuel, it seems to me that it would have ended up quite a bit farther west than the satellite data would allow.
Granted, I haven't been following the story very closely, but so many theories have been floated, including some that appear to have originated from Uranus...
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Old 03-18-2014, 02:53 PM   #110
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Not a pilot, but this theory seems at least as good as others I've heard...

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com
Exactly. And consistent with the oil rig observation.

Finally some sense.

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including some that appear to have originated from Uranus...
Or from the one belonging to the Malaysian spokesman.
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Old 03-18-2014, 02:56 PM   #111
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Here's an interesting question. In the old days, couldn't it happen that the flight crew was incapacitated, and a stewardess or knowledgeable passenger could go into the cockpit and pick up the radio and say "Help Help"?

But nowadays, the cockpit door is locked, right?
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Old 03-18-2014, 03:15 PM   #112
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It does sound reasonable but how does one explain that the last ping from the aircraft was somewhere along one of those arcs? How would the aircraft change course again, to the north or south? I guess the big question is, was this course change accidental or not.
Well...at this point I am not certain about anything. Not even certain the powers that be have the pings right.

And from my perspective, I think the eyewitness account from the guy on the oil rig carries a lot of weight. After all, no one else has said any other plane was on fire have they?
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Old 03-18-2014, 03:18 PM   #113
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Watching a discussion from CBS This Morning news. There's a good change the plane and passengers will never be found as the search area is so vast and if the plane is under water, the battery that runs the beacon for sonar only operates for 30 days.
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Old 03-18-2014, 04:01 PM   #114
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Exactly. And consistent with the oil rig observation.

Finally some sense.



Or from the one belonging to the Malaysian spokesman.
More speculation:

What happened to Flight 370? The leading theories

"ABC News reported that an oil-rig worker in the Gulf of Thailand said he saw the Malaysia plane "burning at high altitude," but later said the report could be a hoax."
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Old 03-18-2014, 04:13 PM   #115
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Not a pilot, but this theory seems at least as good as others I've heard...

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

My initial thought was highjacking. land the plane on an old abandoned air strip somewhere in SE Asia. Kill or ransom the passengers. Fill the plane with explosives then take out the other Twin Towers in Kuala Lampur.

However, I must say a electrical fire which got out of control makes a lot more sense.
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Old 03-18-2014, 04:21 PM   #116
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Not a pilot, but this theory seems at least as good as others I've heard...

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

Makes perfect sense.

( So, no alien abduction, eh? )
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Old 03-18-2014, 04:21 PM   #117
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I have heard so many theories. The only one I have not heard now is a zombie infection where the pilot was trying to save humanity by ditching the plane in such a deep unknown area that the infection would not be spread by rescuers.
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Old 03-18-2014, 04:55 PM   #118
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Not a pilot, but this theory seems at least as good as others I've heard...

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com
A friend who retired recently from Boeing posted this link on her fb page, and aeronautically-minded colleagues agreed this made a lot of sense.
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Old 03-18-2014, 04:57 PM   #119
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Not a pilot, but this theory seems at least as good as others I've heard...

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com
This also sounds the most plausible to me...electrical fire and pilot diversion to the nearest suitable airfield. The terrorist/pilot intrigue theories don't seem to have any supporting links based on all the investigations so far.
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Old 03-18-2014, 05:06 PM   #120
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