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Old 09-12-2009, 02:15 PM   #21
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So nobody is conerned about high inflation coming from the Fed printing all that $ that we don't have? . . . Also credit is still very tight and that will keep things a bit depressed as well.
Inflationary fed policy and "tight credit" are mutually exclusive. So you'll have to pick one to worry about.
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Old 09-12-2009, 02:24 PM   #22
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A funny thing happens when the government breaks the back of a cascading, deflationary, deleveraging, vicious-cycle . . . we find equilibrium at a higher level than we otherwise would.

Three cheers for the bailouts!!
You guys are more optimistic than I, but let's hope they get it right.

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Inflationary fed policy and "tight credit" are mutually exclusive. So you'll have to pick one to worry about.
They may be mutually exclusive, but that doesn't stop me from worrying about them both at the same time. Are we going to see inflation for deflation for the next couple of quarters? Got me.
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Old 09-12-2009, 02:31 PM   #23
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Anyone buying the economy is recovering
if so why?
The index of LEADING Economic Indicators has been pointing higher since March. The index of Coincident Indicators stopped falling in July for the first time since November 2007.

Unemployment is a LAGGING Indicator, but the extraordinary productivity growth and better than expected corporate profits we've seen this past quarter is a harbinger for renewed business investment.
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Old 09-12-2009, 02:35 PM   #24
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You guys are more optimistic than I, but let's hope they get it right.

..........but that doesn't stop me from worrying about them both at the same time. Are we going to see inflation for deflation for the next couple of quarters? Got me.
Hey. don't worry! Be happy!!!
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Old 09-12-2009, 03:11 PM   #25
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Break out the champagne!

Calculated Risk: OECD: Global Recession Over
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Old 09-12-2009, 03:33 PM   #26
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At work on Thursday our CEO made a visit and passed on some encouraging information.

Our China plant and the 2 plants in Holland are at full capacity supplying the APAC market (mostly China).

Our USA plants are at 66% capacity in the USA, but they are holding off starting up the last 3rd until they feel that the increased demand is sustainable and not part of a W or "square root" recovery.

Similarly the hiring, pay and bonus freezes stay in place for the same reason. (our business never actually laid off anyone and at our particular location we are hurting because we have been unable to replace the folks retiring).
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Old 09-13-2009, 07:59 AM   #27
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My funds are almost half way back up to where they were before the stock market took the dump.
One of my magic numbers is Dow 10k, since on the way down I stupidly did some impulse moves from cash to equities when it went under 10k thinking it wouldn't go much lower.

For some reason getting back there would make me feel better about it.
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Green shoots?
Old 09-15-2009, 05:33 PM   #28
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Green shoots?

Retail sales turned up in August. Some of it due to the cash-for-clunkers program, but results were encouraging even accounting for that.

From:
Calculated Risk: Retail Sales increase in August
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Old 09-15-2009, 05:58 PM   #29
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I'd say we are kidding ourselves by believing the economy is in recovery. Unemployment is high. Some companies may be reporting earnings but probably by getting tons of employees off their books by laying them off! Housing bust will continue on (ALT-A and Option ARMs) for another couple of years, so I'd say the recovery is going to take more time. In the meantime, if inflation happens (due to printing more dollars), I don't know when the recovery will be. I am really worried about the market going up for no apparent reason...

Call me a pessimist...
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Old 09-15-2009, 07:36 PM   #30
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Call me a pessimist...
You're a pessimist
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Old 09-15-2009, 08:52 PM   #31
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I'd say we are kidding ourselves by believing the economy is in recovery. Unemployment is high. Some companies may be reporting earnings but probably by getting tons of employees off their books by laying them off! Housing bust will continue on (ALT-A and Option ARMs) for another couple of years, so I'd say the recovery is going to take more time. In the meantime, if inflation happens (due to printing more dollars), I don't know when the recovery will be. I am really worried about the market going up for no apparent reason...

Call me a pessimist...

tmm99, you sell I will buy ... call me an optimist...
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Old 09-15-2009, 09:49 PM   #32
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You're a pessimist
Thank you Alan. I needed that...
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Old 09-15-2009, 09:58 PM   #33
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Hope there is a recovery. My sister in LA works for a non-profit that contracts with LA county to provide mental health and drug treatment services. They only are hanging on because of stimulus money. She has had to lay some people off.

Another relative that is 55 and has been laid off for quite awhile has no health insurance. He couldn't afford COBRA His UE is up in January.
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Old 09-16-2009, 11:55 AM   #34
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Not all of the news is good. It seems that bank lending is still falling.

from:
Bank Lending Continues to Slip | The Big Picture
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Old 09-16-2009, 11:56 AM   #35
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Not all of the news is good. It seems that bank lending is still falling.
The question is -- is it falling faster than home prices? If not, it doesn't mean fewer loans are being made, just that the average loan is a little smaller.
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Old 09-16-2009, 12:35 PM   #36
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Thank you Alan. I needed that...
You're welcome

I used to be a pessimist, my motto was "If at first you don't succeed, cover up all traces you even tried".

These days I find it all too exhausting to worry about what may be. "Tomorrow is another day, unless the sun doesn't rise"
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Old 09-16-2009, 12:41 PM   #37
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Not all of the news is good. It seems that bank lending is still falling.
That reflects the total average outstanding loan balances, right? So in rough terms, the total outstanding loans have decreased from $4.4 trillion at the start of 2009 to $4.2 trillion today? That may reflect the fact that the average savings rate has gone from a moderately negative number to +5% or so in an extremely rapid period of time. People are incurring less new debt, saving more and paying down debt. I also wonder how much of that "average loan balance" has been wiped away through negotiated balance reductions, foreclosures, bankruptcies, and government loan modification programs.

Not necessarily a bad thing long term.
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