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Where will jobs come from?
Old 05-20-2017, 07:55 AM   #1
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Where will jobs come from?

Because two of my kids live in Aurora, IL,(pop. 200K) the headline for this story hit me.

Quote:
Butterball will shutter its Gusto meatpacking plant in Montgomery, where it employs about 600 full-time workers, marking another painful loss of jobs in the Aurora area.
The North Carolina-based company's announcement comes after Caterpillar announced last month it would close its manufacturing plant in Montgomery by the end of 2018, resulting in a loss of 800 jobs. Butterball acquired Gusto Packing Co. in 2013; now, most of the plant's products will be discontinued after the plant closes on or around July 17.
Butterball said it informed employees of the plant closing Thursday
As we look to recover manufacturing jobs in the US, it seems that many are being lost at the same time... Robots, Obsolescence, Competition, and a host of other reasons, like the loss of Fracking jobs in N.Dakota which has devastated entire cities.

And so I wonder what you think might happen to rebalance these losses. Are there limits to technology, or healthcare? Is there enough in the entrepreneurial sector to offset the losses?

While I am very happy to be out of the marketplace, I worry for my children and their children. So far, a good education seems to be the floor for a better income, but even at that, there are some indications the salaries of college grads are moving more towards the mean, than upwards.
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Old 05-20-2017, 08:50 AM   #2
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The first thing is to encourage higher education or specific trades. I think in a lot of ways the next generation does not value the skill trades that set m apart and have great benefits. They continue to be one of the few industries that remain unionized.

Though I didn't graduate in the major I started in (pre-med), I switched to a major that would have lots of opportunities (accounting & finance). That served me well later. We need to make sure that college is used to an end result. That degrees are a means to an end and not just general knowledge.

Also, what people continue to worry about but not realize is the sheer number of people that will age out. Jobs will be expanding to a huge degree in ten years as we old people exit the work force.
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Old 05-20-2017, 08:57 AM   #3
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Creative destruction says some jobs will go and others will take their place, as has been the case for many generations. No one seems worried about all the former farmers, blacksmiths, typewriter manufacturers, abacus makers, slide rule makers, switchboard operators, lamplighters, bowling alley pinsetters, ice cutters, cashiers/tellers, etc. anymore - some fields become essentially obsolete all the time. Over 90% of the population was involved in agriculture 200 years ago, now it's closer to 3%, but we still have food and most who want to be employed are.

It's easy to find, even predict in many cases, which jobs will be lost. But it's just as easy to find fields where gains, even shortages, exist. Off the top of my head it's pretty clear healthcare, financial services and a wide variety of tech related fields have had gains for many years. There are more entrepreneurs these days than ever before as well, countering the big firms that were the norm years ago.

10 Great Career Fields for the Future
http://www.cheatsheet.com/personal-f...tml/?a=viewall

I am sure past generations have worried about their kids career opportunities as well. It seems change happens faster than ever, but that's not new either. It may get more challenging, but it's self limiting to some extent. Change can't happen faster than customers will accept, e.g. if only 10% of us are working, 90% of the customers are gone...
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Old 05-20-2017, 09:30 AM   #4
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If I were a teenager heading off to college in this era of ever-increasing automation and outsourcing, I would probably focus heavily on a career such as health care. Of course, this requires many years of education and a lot of smarts. So if I were more of an "average joe" type, I might consider going into something like A/C repair and installation. From what I see here in my neighborhood, those guys are in constant high demand and probably will be for many years. Ultimately, jobs will go to those who provide needed skills that cannot easily (or profitably) be automated or moved elsewhere due to global interconnectivity.
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Old 05-20-2017, 10:02 AM   #5
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The US has essentially full employment now. It has always been that young folks move to find jobs.

Car dealerships cannot get enough mechanics nowadays, so they pay for people to get training and hire them. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/27/a...pair-jobs.html

It is true that there are plenty of tax breaks for the wealthy to send their kids to college, but not a lot of tax breaks to have their kids train to be mechanics, plumbers, truck drivers, HVAC tradespeople, law enforcement, etc.

As for college grad salaries moving towards the mean, that makes perfect sense: If everybody has a college degree, then everybody is a college grad and the mean salary of everybody becomes the same as the mean salary of college grads.

And if my recent trips to national parks tells me anything: There are plenty of opportunities to get paid to help the foreign tourists with their great jobs and money to spend when they come to visit the US.
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Old 05-20-2017, 10:55 AM   #6
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You can't use 529 money for voc-tech schools?
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Old 05-20-2017, 01:34 PM   #7
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It is true that there are plenty of tax breaks for the wealthy to send their kids to college, but not a lot of tax breaks to have their kids train to be mechanics, plumbers, truck drivers, HVAC tradespeople, law enforcement, etc.
Mike Rowe has been saying for years that there is a shortage of skilled trades:

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Old 05-20-2017, 02:08 PM   #8
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Mike Rowe has been saying for years that there is a shortage of skilled trades:
Mike Rowe is absolutely correct, and there are schools to address that. In addition to the others mentioned there is a trade school not far from here that has a wealth of trade school classes. Some are AA degree programs and others are certification programs that standing alone offer training for in-demand skills that allow someone to take those classes and walk out to easily find a job. The local electrical power company just donated a brand-new bucket truck to the school for the electrical lineman's classes.

These are some of the classes offered there: Certificate Programs - Blue Ridge Community and Technical College
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Old 05-20-2017, 02:18 PM   #9
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Plumber? My plumber drives a very nice sports car and takes amazing vacations. But its a smelly job I imagine.
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Old 05-20-2017, 02:30 PM   #10
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Plumber? My plumber drives a very nice sports car and takes amazing vacations. But its a smelly job I imagine.
Every job will have unsavoury parts, but if you're in new construction there is little or no smelly work.

Also, once you learn the trade and pay your dues, you may be able to let the younger employees do most of the dirty work. The plumber down my street now only goes to job sites to bid...he earns his money from his couch while sending out one of his employees to do the work.

A lot of trades also provide the opportunity to earn extra money on the side...several of my friends are in trades and they tell me that they are always asked to do side jobs, many of which pay very well. Of course, the downside is that family and friends are hitting them up to fix their things...
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Old 05-20-2017, 02:35 PM   #11
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A lot of trades also provide the opportunity to earn extra money on the side...several of my friends are in trades and they tell me that they are always asked to do side jobs, many of which pay very well. Of course, the downside is that family and friends are hitting them up to fix their things...
My father was an electrician. Although he worked full time at the power company side jobs for "beer money" was a regular thing, and most came from people he knew from church. The first dollar I ever earned was pulling cable at the age of five in the the crawl space of a house where he couldn't fit through.

At a time when candy bars were five cents that was a huge windfall for me!
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Old 05-20-2017, 03:37 PM   #12
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I grew up in Flint. Had about 7 GM plants, each of which was about a square mile. Now only one or two operate. Painfully devastating. But on the bright side, no traffic problems anymore.

Seems I just saw a headline about AI eliminating a significant number of jobs within 15 years.

If I had to choose a new career now I dunno what I'd choose. My dad thought I could've been a good teacher.
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Old 05-20-2017, 04:12 PM   #13
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I'm not saying this is the answer, but 'basic income' is being studied in Finland as a 2-year experiment.

"Four months after Finland's social-security institution Kela launched a two-year experiment in basic income, a system of wealth distribution in which people receive a salary just for being alive, some of the 2,000 recipients are already reporting lower levels of stress."
http://www.businessinsider.com/finla...-stress-2017-5

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Old 05-20-2017, 04:18 PM   #14
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some of the 2,000 recipients are already reporting lower levels of stress.]
Yeah, free money will do that...
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Old 05-20-2017, 04:45 PM   #15
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I'm not saying this is the answer, but 'basic income' is being studied in Finland as a 2-year experiment.

"Four months after Finland's social-security institution Kela launched a two-year experiment in basic income, a system of wealth distribution in which people receive a salary just for being alive, some of the 2,000 recipients are already reporting lower levels of stress."

http://www.businessinsider.com/finla...ess-2017-5omni
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