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Old 06-21-2017, 07:47 PM   #181
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http://insideevs.com/tesla-returns-l...urrent-owners/
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Old 06-21-2017, 08:03 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by tim59 View Post
See below from "inside ev". Found 92%. I'll continue to look for the 95% article I remember

MONTHLY PLUG-IN SALES SCORECARD
Survey: 92% Of Tesla Owners Will Buy Tesla Again, 55% To Purchase A Model 3 ...

A Prenzler Digital Media survey found that of 296 Tesla owners (mostly Model S – 93%, and 7% Model X), 92% of them would buy another Tesla ...
Have you ever heard the expression, "When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!"

The quotes above are about "will buy" and "would buy", you insisted, several times, that 95% bought (actually acted on it, put the money on the table). Find that data for us, or simply admit you were mistaken, or can't back it up so we can move forward.

Quote:
When asked the question: “What would you pay for a 30% battery upgrade?” 80% of owners said they would upgrade. Those 80% of owners said they would pay on average $200/kWh** in upgrades.
So if "range anxiety" isn't an issue for most people, why are 80% willing to open their wallets for more range? Doesn't add up for me.

-ERD50
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Old 06-21-2017, 08:23 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by swakyaby View Post
Not only is it common courtesy to move your car, Tesla now offers a disincentive to owners who stay five minutes beyond their welcome.
So how does that "offers a disincentive" work out?

If I was "offered a disincentive", I'd politely decline.

Or is this some kind of "offer you can't refuse"?

-ERD50
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Old 06-21-2017, 08:24 PM   #184
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but not for the model 3.
Quote:
…and yes, Tesla was very careful to stipulate that it only applies to the Model S and Model X, so new unlimited use bonus for future Model 3 owners. “Model 3 orders are not eligible”
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Old 06-21-2017, 08:29 PM   #185
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Ed. Could have been inaccurate. Going only from memory. Sorry. I guess I'm getting old. Did not attempt to be deceptive

Any comments about the free charging for free. Or is this in accurate.


Sure glad you are here to make any corrections

Thank you
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Old 06-21-2017, 08:51 PM   #186
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I am planning to buy an AWD luxury sedan, Tesla 90D fits the bill for all my decision criteria. And I love the autopilot feature.

Anyone know how the autopilot handles darting deer in the roadway?
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Old 06-21-2017, 09:01 PM   #187
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It brakes for all objects. May not turn away fast enough. I had the experience of a car pulling out of an intersection directly in front of me. The car braked pretty hard and avoided the accident.

I found autopilot to me really useful for highway driving. It watches the lines and cars very well No real ping ponging like some of the other cars that have steering assist. Work great in stop and go traffic. I use it every day

Doesn't work reliably on non highway roads that have a lot of turning lanes. It doesn't always know what lane you want to be in. Kind of erratic if there're are lots of turning lanes.

When it can't see the lines, it follows the car in front of you. If it drives off a cliff, you may follow

That's why it really best on multiple lane highways with good road lines. It won't change lanes if the line is solid but will if it's dashed (if you turn on turning signal)
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Old 06-21-2017, 09:08 PM   #188
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I seem to recall several years ago that there was a concern that China would corner the market on Rare Earth minerals. So.....

https://venturebeat.com/2011/01/18/t...duction-motor/

Quote:
Toyota is in the advanced stages of creating a hybrid car “induction motor” that doesn’t use rare earths, Bloomberg reported today. Rare-earth minerals are used in a number of clean technologies and consumer electronics. They can be found in magnets that power electric cars and hybrids like Toyota Prius, Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Volt, as well as cell phones, wind turbines and hard drives.


Toyota’s move feels reminiscent of electric car makers saying “booyah” to oil. It also shows that at least one major automaker is bearish on the prospect of the rare earth shortages lessening any time soon. The article also notes that Toyota’s electric RAV4 (pictured), which it paid Tesla $60 million to help develop, will use a special Tesla induction motor that is rare earths-free. The motor is similar to the (also rare earths-free) technology in Tesla’s all-electric Roadster sports car and 2012 Model S sedan.
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Old 06-21-2017, 10:15 PM   #189
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I thought... hey, see what a used Rav 4 EV is going for....


Well, on autotrader there is only 1 (yes ONE) within 800 miles of me... and it has 140K miles on it...

And the prices do not seem to be that great either... Plus, the range is kinds light... from an article...
Although the RAV4 EV's 103-mile driving range may seem stingy


I think the newer hybrid is a better buy...
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Old 06-21-2017, 10:22 PM   #190
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Let's not forget that that electric cars are still in the early adopter phase...I'm probably not the only person here who knows someone who paid $1,000 for a VCR back in the 80's

Obviously, the early adopters are willing to accept certain disadvantages that others won't. Electric cars are at that stage now. If the technological hurdles get worked out and the price becomes competitive, they'll fly off the shelves.
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Old 06-21-2017, 11:50 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
I seem to recall several years ago that there was a concern that China would corner the market on Rare Earth minerals. So.....

https://venturebeat.com/2011/01/18/t...duction-motor/
Not anymore. It was a concern back in 2011.
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Old 06-22-2017, 12:02 AM   #192
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Bigger Battery = More Power. Get it? But some Mdl S owner just went over 500mi. on one charge!

Safest automobile in the world.

No one manufactures a better vehicle then Tesla.

Most Fun.
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Old 06-22-2017, 12:16 AM   #193
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ED, err, Erd50: I wouldn't sweat it as Tesla brings a new Supercharger on line somewhere in the world almost daily. And All locations are all listed on the computers google maps, in real time. S.C. , a non issue year from now.

Two guys waiting in line at Costco gas station.., Tesla rolls by, they both look at each other and one says "oh, I'd never own one of those, you have to wait while it charges.
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Old 06-22-2017, 01:33 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
I think you'd be more persuasive if you didn't generalize, exaggerate and hype and the car. A few examples.:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ken830 View Post
.... The Tesla design and charging network reduces and eliminates many compromises of the electric car in our current infrastructure environment ... This makes it practical and affordable to a large number of people (many middle-class families in the suburbs with a garage and people with long daily commutes). ...
I'll accept that the charging network reduces the compromise. Eliminates it? - no way!
A $100,000 car is 'affordable'? I'm having trouble with 'practical' as well, but I'll pass for brevity's sake.
Maybe it would've been a bit more clear if I had used "or eliminate" instead of "and eliminate"? Re-read what I wrote (minus your emphasis). I said two things (Tesla design and Tesla charging network) does two things (reduce some compromises and eliminates some compromises). It's not a bold fanboy claim. It's just reasonable. And I even qualified my statement by saying that this is only true for a large number of people -- NOT everyone, NOT most people, but relatively well-off people with a garage and long commutes.

Here's just one example to illustrate my point:

The electric car, by design, eliminates the extra time needed to "fuel" the vehicle every few days during your normal routine driving. This is like 80-95% of your driving anyway.

The design of the car to include high-capacity batteries & DC bypass in conjunction with the Supercharging and destination charging network reduces the inconvenience of charging that is inherent in all other electric cars during long distance driving.

Would you now agree that my original statement was fair?



Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ken830 View Post
I'm not defending the 95% claim, but here's my situation: I would have ...
But you insisted, several times, that the stat was not about "would have bought", but then you use that in your 'non-defense' defense. OK, but I'm saying it does not help your credibility to be making a claim, several times, and to then come back and say you can't defend it. If you want to be taken seriously, take a little more time in making your posts. Repeated undefendable statements can make you come across as a "fanbois".

But again, it is a very impressive car, and I do hope you continue to enjoy your investment.
I never made this claim. I never insisted this. I never non-defended myself in a defense. I am merely offering my experience with no other wild claims. I'm pretty sure you mixed me up with tim59.

But since you mentioned enjoying my investment... I actually joined this forum today because of my Model S purchase. Back in 2012, when I placed a reservation, I had sky-high expectations for the car. After taking delivery, the car blew away all of those expectations -- completely surpassed them. Living day-in and day-out with the car made me realize that there is zero-chance I would ever willingly buy another gasoline car or even another electric car that didn't do everything the Tesla can do. That's when I looked at the stock price and saw it was $42/share. Anyways, the rest is history and I've done quite well so far. The car was the best thing I ever bought. TSLA shares are the second best. All thanks to my daughter (or my wife being pregnant with her necessitating our search for a bigger car).
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Old 06-22-2017, 03:10 AM   #195
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I bought stock in November at 190. Made enough since then to pay for my tesla.

The stock can't continue to go up at this pace. It seems crazy that the company has a higher market capitalization than GM or Ford being that they are not yet profitable.

I keep meaning to sell some off, but it keeps rising.
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Old 06-22-2017, 06:03 AM   #196
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One side note on rare-earth elements: they are not rare. Main reason China has a nice position there is that it takes awhile to develop new resources, an China made they relatively cheap so no need to do that.

So one can end up in a shortage situation for a while, nothing spectacular.
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Old 06-22-2017, 07:15 AM   #197
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Originally Posted by ken830 View Post
Maybe it would've been a bit more clear if I had used "or eliminate" instead of "and eliminate"? Re-read what I wrote (minus your emphasis). ....

Would you now agree that my original statement was fair? ...
No. I can only respond to what you wrote, I can't determine your intent. Even your clarified version, you say the compromises are reduced/eliminated. Your later comment about "for a large number of people" (not all), is a separate statement. IOW, I could eliminate a design problem in a product, but even if no one used that feature, I still eliminated it. I either eliminated the problem or not. Again, I have to go by what you wrote, and I have to break down the logic, and that's what I got out of it.

Quote:
The electric car, by design, eliminates the extra time needed to "fuel" the vehicle every few days during your normal routine driving. This is like 80-95% of your driving anyway.
You drift and conflate points, so it's hard to respond, so I might just stop. Take the quote above - you are using that to defend your statement about 'reduce/eliminate compromises in EVs', but that statement is about comparing an EV to a gas car. A different point altogether. It has nothing to do with eliminating some of the compromises in an EV (range anxiety on long trips, not shorter daily commutes).


RE: the 95% bought Teslas:
Quote:
I never made this claim. I never insisted this. I never non-defended myself in a defense. I am merely offering my experience with no other wild claims. I'm pretty sure you mixed me up with tim59.
Ahhh, you are correct - I saw the claim repeated, and thought it was the same person 'defending' it, sorry.

Sure, the Supercharge network reduces anxiety, but as others have pointed out, it's still an issue for a 'large number of potential customers', and it still is far less convenient on a long trip in many parts of the country. If the network is good for your trips, that's good for you. But as we've said, you tend to (or it least it comes across that way), to extrapolate that out to EVs and people in general.

Where's poster Zathras? I think he has two Teslas and a Volt?

-ERD50
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Old 06-22-2017, 11:02 AM   #198
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First, welcome to the forum....



I am not sure which SUV you were looking at... but I will challenge you on it costing the same... but then again I have a Honda Pilot...

I looked at some real world info on electricity use... found one that gave info on 15K miles of driving a Tesla... a quick calculation at 12cents per KWH gives total 'fuel' cost of $761... My pilot gets about 20 mpg and has much more cargo room than a Tesla... so fuel is about $1677 @ 2.20 per gallon (both are cheaper here in Texas).... from the blog I found...
To cover 15,243 miles, I used 5,074 kWh of electricity, for an average of 333 watt-hours per mile. That's a bit better than the car's EPA-rated efficiency of 350 Wh/mi, and converts to precisely 3 miles per kWh.

So, for about 15K miles it cost $916 more in fuel... convert that to 100K miles I would be paying $6100 extra for fuel... throw in a few oil changes and some other filters and that will still be less than $10K extra total spend for service for 100,000 miles... assume tires are about the same, but that could be off...

If you were not looking at a $90K SUV option then they are not essentially the same...


I am not saying that you do not like your car or your purchase, but only that your claim seems bogus to me... BTW, I paid $35K for my Pilot so I have a long way to go to get to your total spend... mine is not as nice as yours, but pretty nice... and I can tow my boat!!!


BTW, we have taken a number of long distance trips (and will be doing another next month) that we could not do easily in a Tesla... with my DW and I we have actually driven from Daytona Beach to Houston with only stopping for gas and a quick stretch every few hours... that is about 1,000 miles...
Thanks for the welcome!

I only made this claim for my situation in my location at the time (Summer 2012). I never claimed nor guaranteed it applies for everyone at any location. I considered at a Honda/Toyota/Chrysler minivan, and only briefly considered a Jeep Grand Cherokee. I'm going to try to keep a friendly, non-defensive tone, but for fun, I'll entertain your challenge to show I'm not spewing garbage to artificially make a "bogus" point. I actually had detailed spreadsheets that I tweaked and agonized over for months before making the decision.

For me, these were the variables:

$4.00/gal for gas (Conservative because at the time, it was $4.50 in the Bay Area and was above $4 since 2010. Fluctuates a lot -- had to pick a number.)
Electricity at home is $0.10/kWh (Conservative because it's only $0.08/kWh at work, and a small percentage would be free at public stations and Superchargers)
Annual mileage is 22,000 miles (Conservative because we're closer to 25,000 for most years)
Vehicle ownership is 10 years (Conservative for us. At the time, our newest car was 10 years old, the oldest was 12 years old. We eventually kept these cars until they were 12 and 14 years old. Would've been older if it weren't for the new electric cars replacing them)

So, taking these conservative estimates:

22,000 miles x 10 years = 220,000 miles
220,000 miles / 3.5 miles per kWh = 62,857 kWh
62,857 kWh x 10 cents per kWh = $6,287 in fuel cost over ten years

And taking your MPG experience from your Pilot:

22,000 miles x 10 years = 220,000 miles
220,000 miles / 20 miles per gallon = 11,000 gallons
11,000 gallons x $4 per gallon = $44,000 in fuel cost over ten years

Difference in fuel cost would be: $44,000 - $6,287 = $37,713 difference

According to Honda's website, base MSRP for all Pilot trim levels with no other options ranges from $30,745 to $47,220 (I don't know what year your car is, but your $35K fits in this range). Tesla Model S at introduction was $57,500 for the 40kWh, $10k more for the 60kWh, and another $10k more for the 85kWh -- No other options selected.

The cost of ownership of the Pilot + fuel would be in the range of $74,745 to $91,220

The cost of ownership of the Model S + fuel would be in the range of $63,787 to $83,787

These are rough, but conservative numbers. I admit that I didn't count things like oil changes, smog check, and other maintenance cost for the Pilot. I also didn't count things like the difference in sales tax at the time of purchase of the more expensive Tesla.

And what's even more compelling for my situation is that I haven't counted the incentives for the Tesla. Financially, it's $7,500 Federal tax credit, $2,500 California state rebate (check), and $500 PG&E clean energy Rebate. Also, single-occupancy HOV access means daily bridge toll savings of 50% ($2.50 per day) and time savings which is hard to put a price on. Subtract these, and you can see that at a high-level, in my use-case, the price of the highest-capacity battery Tesla approaches the cost of the lowest-priced Pilot.

A very important point is that the price of gas really fluctuates a lot, so I didn't have any delusions that this was ever going to be a real-world accurate projection of the price difference 10 years into the future. All other variables have held pretty true. I think gas prices have dropped a bit, but even so, it's not super-dramatic. I checked the history on Texas' average gas prices and it was around $3.50 from late-2010 to 2014. I think I would've come to similar (albeit slightly less favorable) conclusion had I done the math while living in Texas in 2012.


One more thing... I don't think you're purposely trying to mislead about the Pilot having "much more cargo room" than the Tesla Model S without any qualifications. I assume you're just making a blind assumption because the Tesla looks like a sleek sedan. In reality, it's more nuanced than that and it's worth explaining.

According to Honda's website, the Pilot claims 16.5 cu ft or 18.5 cu ft with all 3 rows of seats up (8-passengers). With 2 rows of seats up (4-passengers), that increases to 46.8 cu ft or 55.9 cu ft.. If you fold down the second row (2-passengers) this further increases to 83.9 cu ft or 109.0 cu ft.. I'm not sure why they give two numbers for each of these, do you know??

According to Tesla's website, Model S has 31.6 cu ft with all seats up (5-passenger). This is split between the trunk and frunk. If you fold the rear seats (2-passenger), the cargo volume increases to 58.1 cu ft. Mine has a more spacious frunk because I have the early RWD model with a larger frunk. I also have to qualify this claim because if you opt for the 3rd row child seats on the Model S, you lose cargo capacity in the rear footwell at all times. And if you deploy the 3rd row seats (7-passenger, two of which are kids), you essentially lose all of the rear cargo room, leaving only the frunk at about 5 cu ft.

My point is that it's not cut-and-dry that the Pilot has more cargo space. And isn't it amazing? The fact that cargo space of a sleek full-size sedan with Cd 0.24 is even worthwhile to compare to a full size SUV is a testament to how the electric drivetrain allows for more efficient design and packaging.
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Old 06-22-2017, 11:52 AM   #199
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Thanks for sharing your numbers, ken830. I don't drive nearly as many miles, so mine would be quite different. But as tim59 noted, it's not all about cost, it's the driving experience too.


One more thing I was wondering, what was the cost to set up charging at home? My understanding is that you should have a dedicated circuit at a minimum.


I was just thinking about how often I'd be impacted by the range. I just took a trip last week where I would have had to have parked in the more expensive airport garage with charging, or otherwise burn time at a supercharger. I suppose the fuel savings offset most or all of the parking increase, plus that garage is more convenient to the terminal, so I'll call that a wash.


My March trip was the same, and I don't know if the airport I used for that even has any chargers. Next week I'm doing a 6 hr drive with return, definitely impacted. I've got 2 fall trips, one of them longer, that would take significant adjustments. That's probably 15-20% of my driving miles that are either impacted, or for which I'd need a different car. It wouldn't be viable at all to replace any of this driving with flying. As noted, 2 of the trips are just to get to the airport.
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Old 06-22-2017, 12:36 PM   #200
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I seem to recall several years ago that there was a concern that China would corner the market on Rare Earth minerals. So.....

https://venturebeat.com/2011/01/18/t...duction-motor/
Is there really anything "special" about that motor?

IIRC, Tesla picked an off-the-shelf AC induction motor because it didn't want to go to the expense (or delay) of creating its own DC permanent-magnet motor.
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