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Will these 10 jobs disappear in 2012?
Old 03-28-2012, 09:04 AM   #1
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Will these 10 jobs disappear in 2012?

Not surprisingly, the title is overstating the case to get hits, more like professions in decline. "...job categories whose numbers are projected to shrink in the coming years, plus a few that will grow so slowly that you might as well be sending your resume to Greece for a civil service job." A few are obvious, travel agent & newspaper reporter, but others may come as a surprise (including my old job). And I thought some might be amused with #9 and/or #10.

In case you're thinking of a second career and/or advising a DS, DD, DGS, DGD...
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  1. Judge Politicians can argue whether the best quality for a judge is empathy or an ability to call balls and strikes, but here's a different perspective: What you really need is patience. By 2018, the BLS predicts that there will be 700 fewer jobs for judges, magistrate judges, and magistrates, than there were in 2008, thanks mainly to budget cuts. And since the average tenure for a judge is 14 years, turnover is glacial. "Years ago, some left to become general counsel in the private sector, where they could triple their salary, but since the economic downturn, they're staying longer on the bench," says Tamara Dillon, who researches the occupation for the BLS.
  2. Fashion designer Call it Project Turnaway. By 2018, only 200 more designers will find work in a field that employed 22,700 people as of 2008. That's about 2 percent of the number who applied to become Project Runway contestants in 2009, estimates Carol-Hannah Whitfield, who was a finalist on the show that year. "The world doesn't need another designer," Whitfield says.
  3. Insurance underwriter Blame it on the software. New programs allow underwriters to take on three times as much work as in the past, collapsing the need for more hires. As a result, the BLS projects that the number of people employed in the field will decline by 4 percent, or 4,300 jobs, by 2018. "[The underwriter] just punches in data, and it spits out, say, whether a potential homebuyer is approved or not," says Henry Kasper, supervisory economist at the BLS. Growth in the insurance industry isn't exactly exploding either, further undermining the career outlook for underwriters.
  4. Travel agent Call it the Attack of the Roaming Gnome: Online sites such as Travelocity, Priceline.com, Expedia, and Orbitz have decimated the ranks of travel agents as consumers increasingly book their own trips. The BLS expects 1,200 fewer travel agents to be employed in 2018 than in 2008. And the number of traditional travel agencies has been sliced in half -- from a peak of 44,000 in 1997 to about 20,000 today, according to Douglas Quinby of PhoCusWright, a travel industry research company based in Sherman, Connecticut.
  5. Newspaper reporter Read it and weep: According to the BLS, a whopping 4,400 jobs will disappear by 2018 (out of 69,400 total in 2008). That's more than three times the number of newsroom employees at The New York Times. The bad news for print can be summed up in one word: Internet. "Some of the print people are finding jobs online," says Lauren Csorny, an economist at the BLS. But there aren't enough to make up for the losses. No wonder that newspaper reporters ranked No. 184 out of 200 jobs, one slot above stevedore, in CareerCast.com's annual JobsRated survey.
  6. Broadcast announcer The play-by-play for this occupation isn't pretty. Consolidation has eliminated many jobs already, and technology is hijacking off-air tasks, such as editing, once performed by announcers (and future announcers paying their dues). Add the increased use of syndication and the growth of satellite radio and the picture is even bleaker. By 2018, broadcasting is expected to lose 2,400 radio and TV announcer jobs.
  7. Plant manager Automation and offshoring will decimate the ranks of production managers by 2018. According to the BLS, employment will drop by 11,900 jobs from a 2008 total of 156,100. With faster machines and better productivity, one plant can do the work of two, squeezing managers out. Increased imports of manufactured goods will do additional damage. With 50 percent of the textile industry moving off-shore, for example, half the plant managers in that sector are at risk of losing their jobs. The outlook is equally bleak for managers in the computer, electronics, and auto parts industries.
  8. Chemist Nearly half of all chemists are employed in manufacturing firms -- plastics, pesticides, and paint, to name a few. And that's a bummer for them, because manufacturing companies are continuing to outsource their R&D and testing to small, specialized firms, cutting job opportunities for in-house chemists. The profession lost 10,000 jobs from 2009 to 2010, according to the BLS, which projects only a 2 percent rise in the total number of chemists employed by 2018.
  9. Economist The Federal government is the largest employer of economists in the country. More than half -- 53 percent -- of all economists in the U.S. work for declining government sectors, so Uncle Sam's not hiring a lot of economists just now. "Econ" is a hot college major, but most of those newly-minted grads won't find work as traditional economists. Instead, they'll end up in niche sectors in business, finance, insurance, and education. Those set on working as conventional economists better have a Plan B, or a Plan Ph.D, because they'll need one. The economists at BLS do tell us that by 2018, an additional 900 economists will be employed -- so the outlook is not as dismal for dismal scientists as it is for, say, travel agents. But if current trends continue, the future isn't promising. "You look at the last 10 to15 years and it has been flat," says Henry Kasper of the BLS. "There's little reason to think it's going to get better."
  10. CEO OK, it's not a profession, but it's worth keeping in mind if you aspire to the corner office: Mergers and streamlining will make the climb to the top harder than K2, as companies combine and jobs are eliminated. The BLS projects that there will be 5,500 fewer CEOs by 2018. To boost your odds, consider Rosetta Stone; CEO candidates should be fluent in at least two languages, says Patricia Tate of the BLS. So if you speak Spanish, Arabic, or Chinese, f»licitations.
Will these 10 jobs disappear in 2012? - CBS News
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Old 03-28-2012, 09:45 AM   #2
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My wife did some travel agent work a few years ago, and it's definitely a niche product now. Just about all that still pay commissions are cruises and guided tour packages, and who knows how much longer that will last? There are only so many people who will pay a $25-50 fee to book a flight they can do themselves for nothing on a web site.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 03-28-2012, 09:53 AM   #3
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Another thought about the "broadcast announcer" job -- at least in the context of sports, it is no longer possible to even break into the field unless you have experience playing the game at the highest level.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 03-28-2012, 10:03 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
My wife did some travel agent work a few years ago, and it's definitely a niche product now. Just about all that still pay commissions are cruises and guided tour packages, and who knows how much longer that will last? There are only so many people who will pay a $25-50 fee to book a flight they can do themselves for nothing on a web site.
I can't imagine using a travel agent for domestic travel (or Canada), and haven't for more than 15 years. My last trip abroad was Milan IT, and I booked my own flights, though with help from my hosts on hotel & trans.

OTOH, there are many foreign countries/continents where I'd welcome help from a knowledgeable travel agent, and gladly pay for the privilege. So I assume there's still some market for travel agents, along the guided tour package you mention.
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Old 03-28-2012, 12:00 PM   #5
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Economist? We have such abundant supply of economists in this country, and then what happened? Niente.
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Old 03-28-2012, 12:38 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
My wife did some travel agent work a few years ago, and it's definitely a niche product now. Just about all that still pay commissions are cruises and guided tour packages, and who knows how much longer that will last? There are only so many people who will pay a $25-50 fee to book a flight they can do themselves for nothing on a web site.
OTOH, we would not schedule travel without one (as we just again got "stung", with the recent Continental/United merger).

We normally have one agent we use, but he was unavailable for a few weeks so we thought we would use one of the on-line discount providers for our trip next month to Maui. Since we already booked the condo on our own, we figured it was no problem booking the airlines.

What happened a few weeks ago when the systems were merged (over the weekend), when I went in to ensure our flights/seats were still there, we found our entire trip had been cancelled. We talked to the (unnamed) discount booking agent, and found that they would not be able to re-book for a few days until they were told "what was still available" by United (no more Continental). In fact, they could not even find our original booking since they only kept the files for six months, but we had booked almost a year earlier.

United (originally booked through Continental) had our cancelled reservation info, but could not book us on the original flight/seats (it was still a Continental route, even though it is now considered United). We had to pay a $150 x 2 rebooking fee and accept seats that were not together, and not in the area that we originally wanted to sit. We had to keep to the same day schedule due to the condo booking.

We contacted our travel agent (with whom we have two other foreign trips booked for this year), but he could not help us since it was not originally booked through him/his agency. He told me that he had a lot of other folks that had gone through the upgrade that weekend, and that all were re-booked with no problems (in the original seats).

Another reason we use an agent is for times like a few years ago when the Iceland volcano went off. There was a question of flights going over/back to London, and the cruise ship we were booked on (maiden voyage) was being used to transport folks back to England/Ireland that were stuck in southern Europe coast cities, since air travel north was limited.

He had to do some last minute emergency changes, but luckily all worked out OK. In addition, we had his number as a single point of contact if there was any additional problems during our Baltic cruise or problem with travel due to the volcano. BTW, he had been working almost 7x24 to re-book those who were enroute during the high point of the disaster, but more importantly, getting hotel rooms and transportation for those "stuck" on the Europe side of the pond.

BTW, we don't get charged extra for the work he does (we've checked the rates), even for simple tasks as booking airlines. Maybe we are just used to the service since we're older, but I would not travel without booking through him and having his number if/when things go bad.

Just our POV...
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Old 03-28-2012, 01:29 PM   #7
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With all the advances in computerized education and testing, I imagine teachers will be obsolete in 12-20 years. Lower paid 'monitors' will keep things humming as students from 1st grade to college sit with a computer like devices, receive the lesson material, and get tested.
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Old 03-28-2012, 02:14 PM   #8
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Does anybody know what kind of jobs got eliminated or greatly reduced in number the last 15 years due to computer advancement?
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:00 PM   #9
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Does anybody know what kind of jobs got eliminated or greatly reduced in number the last 15 years due to computer advancement?
travel agents, call center employees, book store employees
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:05 PM   #10
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Does anybody know what kind of jobs got eliminated or greatly reduced in number the last 15 years due to computer advancement?
Countless jobs, just Google and the list is endless. First wave was PCs et al, then the internet. Some new jobs & industries were created of course, but not enough to offset the losses...
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:05 PM   #11
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Does anybody know what kind of jobs got eliminated or greatly reduced in number the last 15 years due to computer advancement?
Check printing industry employees, postal workers...
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:20 PM   #12
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Countless jobs, just Google and the list is endless. First wave was PCs et al, then the internet. Some new jobs & industries were created of course, but not enough to offset the losses...
"Creative destruction" doesn't work as well as it used to, because the displacement is changing the mix to more automation, more computers, more zeroes and ones.

Also, many technology products don't "scale" in terms of labor needed for increased demand. You have to hire almost 10x as many people to build 10X cars instead of X cars, but you don't need too many more programmers to sell 10X pieces of software instead of X. You'll need more people in sales and support, but probably nowhere near ten times as many.
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Old 03-28-2012, 05:06 PM   #13
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Does anybody know what kind of jobs got eliminated or greatly reduced in number the last 15 years due to computer advancement?
My first radio job as an announcer on the overnight shift has been almost completely replaced by computer automation. Very, very few commercial radio stations have live DJ's on the overnight shift now.

After being laid off by my employer of 16 years, I was thinking how nice it would be to spin oldies on an overnight shift in a medium-sized or small town like I used to in the late 1980's, but it's pie in the sky. That position pretty much doesn't exist anymore.

So here I sit posting on an early retirement board on the internet.
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Old 03-28-2012, 05:11 PM   #14
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My first radio job as an announcer on the overnight shift has been almost completely replaced by computer automation. Very, very few commercial radio stations have live DJ's on the overnight shift now.
We're definitely in an economy which is trying its hardest to eliminate as much labor cost as possible in producing goods and services. We always want everything cheaper, and then we wonder where all the good domestic jobs went.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 03-28-2012, 09:41 PM   #15
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As they say, all roads lead to Rome.

And all retirees sit at home, either surfing the Web or post on forums. Some even go "Wh***!".

Oh, but a few others go camping!

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So here I sit posting on an early retirement board on the internet.
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Old 03-29-2012, 09:16 AM   #16
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We're definitely in an economy which is trying its hardest to eliminate as much labor cost as possible in producing goods and services. We always want everything cheaper, and then we wonder where all the good domestic jobs went.
And yet "we" complain bitterly about inflation even now...
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Old 03-29-2012, 09:17 AM   #17
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Technology usually cuts out the bottom, least skilled layer of labor. Several years ago I made a new will using software. This cut out the low level law clerk who takes a standard boiler-plate will, makes a few modifications and gets me to sign it - all for $500.

If my good-for-nothing, lazy, slob brother-in-law decides to contest the will in court, then the higher skilled lawyers still get to collect their fees.

Full disclosure: I don't have a brother-in-law.
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Old 03-29-2012, 09:28 AM   #18
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And yet "we" complain bitterly about inflation even now...
I think it's because most of the stuff that we can get "on the cheap" and reduce labor costs are discretionary items that are stable in price or even falling. The more essential goods don't really "benefit" from this phenomenon, so their prices remain stubbornly high and rising faster than COLAs and wages can keep up.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 03-29-2012, 01:27 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Major Tom
My first radio job as an announcer on the overnight shift has been almost completely replaced by computer automation. Very, very few commercial radio stations have live DJ's on the overnight shift now.

After being laid off by my employer of 16 years, I was thinking how nice it would be to spin oldies on an overnight shift in a medium-sized or small town like I used to in the late 1980's, but it's pie in the sky. That position pretty much doesn't exist anymore.

So here I sit posting on an early retirement board on the internet.
There are people out there doing Internet radio stations that make a living at it. I doubt it's an easier job than doing it the old way, but the barriers to entry seem to be much lower than it used to be.
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