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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-16-2007, 03:51 PM   #41
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

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But then I remember that PenFed is just about to start paying you over 6% for doing nothing. Never mind.
Man ... this is exactly my dilema. Manage tenants and deal with late payments for 4.5-5 % return OR just BAIL and park the wad at 6%.
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-16-2007, 03:58 PM   #42
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

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Man ... this is exactly my dilema. Manage tenants and deal with late payments for 4.5-5 % return OR just BAIL and park the wad at 6%.
If you put it that way, it's like asking "Would you rather have a guaranteed no-hassle $100, or do you want to make an effort and take a chance to make $75?"
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-16-2007, 04:24 PM   #43
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

Exactly, expect by the time Uncle and the state gets thier cut ... it's probably $75 either way with NO potential for growth from PENFED.

Now if rates jump another percent or 2 ....
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-16-2007, 04:25 PM   #44
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

Yeah, I think i'll pass on taking back her old house. Crappy neighborhood and the fixer two doors down just went up for sale for $100k less than we sold our place for...thats a 38% drop...granted it doesnt have the 50k+sweat we put into her place, but still...

I'll wait for things to hit rock bottom, then maybe i'll take a bite or two somewhere.

Some REAL bargains in a town about 30 miles from here that just had their waste treatment plant kick the bucket...nobody can shower or wash clothes and they're limited to one toilet flush per day...pending perhaps forcing them to rent portapotties sometime soon if they dont get a grant from the state for $1M to rebuild the plant.

Bet some of the properties in that area will get even cheaper if the grant gets turned down or delayed.
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-16-2007, 04:55 PM   #45
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

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Some REAL bargains in a town about 30 miles from here that just had their waste treatment plant kick the bucket...nobody can shower or wash clothes and they're limited to one toilet flush per day...pending perhaps forcing them to rent portapotties sometime soon if they dont get a grant from the state for $1M to rebuild the plant.

Bet some of the properties in that area will get even cheaper if the grant gets turned down or delayed.
Eh? Waste water treatment plants aren't rebuilt in a month. Doesn't the district have bonding authority?? That is NUTS!!!
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-16-2007, 05:13 PM   #46
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

No kidding. Granted I can buy and hold a property for a while until they sort it out.

http://www.appeal-democrat.com/artic...news/news2.txt

Smartville aint so smart, it seems.

My favorites are the two guys who are quoted in dispute of the facts, while then immediately acknowledging that they really dont have any actual information. But they KNOW that stuff that was said is wrong. :


"County officials estimated the discharge from 20,000 to 50,000 gallons. River Highlands General Manager Marc Zamora said the estimates are overstated, although he is not sure how much leaked."

"“It's really not possible to do cleanups,” he said. “There aren't any easy solutions.”

The cleanup would be difficult, and nature will quickly break down the contaminants naturally anyway, he said. Maan didn't know how long it would take for the trace compounds to break down"

The latter guy was just voted in to the city council. He's a banker. Obviously a real expert in the matter of human waste contamination.
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-16-2007, 05:29 PM   #47
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

Jeesh...

I am a Commissioner for my local Sewer District. My address and phone number is in the book, the Counsel meetings are at my house. My life would be at risk if we saw this coming and didn't address it. As I recall there were floods in that area a few months ago. Did that wipe out the plant? If so didn't they have insurance, why didn't they act quicker?
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-16-2007, 05:32 PM   #48
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

Nope, no flooding. In fact we had the driest january in recorded history after fairly light rains through the end of last year.

Just a bunch of buttheads that werent paying attention until 50,000 gallons of sewage started running down the hill.

Just waiting to see what the effect is on real estate in the area
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-19-2007, 08:03 PM   #49
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

I remain concerned because--IMHO--we have two bubbles out there. Housing/sub-prime mortages is one, but the other is unsecured debt. I'm specifically thinking about credit card debt. I keep thinking about that TV commercial, where a middle-aged man, after describing his mounting debt to maintain his 'lifestyle,' plaintively cries, "somebody help me." I see this as a classic case in Chaos Theory, where an unsustainable situation abruptly undergoes a binary step-change, to a lower energy state ... without a pause in the middle.

I wish I was wrong.
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-19-2007, 10:18 PM   #50
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

Ah, did you see the program on Link TV today about consumer debt? I caught just enough of it to understand that there are a whole lot of folks who don't know how much financial trouble they have.
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-20-2007, 12:18 AM   #51
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

Considering the average college graduate today cannot balance their checkbook or explain their cell phone plan, its not a big surprise that some strange things happen when you give them a huge unsecured credit line that they barely need to make payments on.
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-20-2007, 08:37 AM   #52
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScooterGuy
I remain concerned because--IMHO--we have two bubbles out there. Housing/sub-prime mortages is one, but the other is unsecured debt. I'm specifically thinking about credit card debt. I keep thinking about that TV commercial, where a middle-aged man, after describing his mounting debt to maintain his 'lifestyle,' plaintively cries, "somebody help me." I see this as a classic case in Chaos Theory, where an unsustainable situation abruptly undergoes a binary step-change, to a lower energy state ... without a pause in the middle.

I wish I was wrong.
I agree that there are many bubbles out there:
As you mention
Housing
Debt

As CFB mentions
Intellegence

I would add
Work content bubble - people doing simple minded work and getting paid a high salary - I worked in a large corp and saw what people did and how much they got paid.

Financial asset bubble - there is a lot of cash around the world chasing investments - when the cash spigot is turned off it might end - one spigot has been the war.

These bubbles can continue for awhile due to the growth of the population from 6.6 Billion to about 10 billion in 2050. Then again nature hates excess. Ususally these types of bubbles are reversed in a depression. I don't know what will stop it - your thoughts??
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-20-2007, 10:33 AM   #53
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

Well, what might impact both would be an epidemic. I recall a physician friend saying that biologically we were due for one in our kid's lifetimes 30 years ago. Hard to estimate the extent to which the human population would be reduced but it wouldn't take much to set back economic growth. In many ways it is not the death rate that will do that, but the human and economic energy consumed in trying to manage the contagion and caring for the sick
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-20-2007, 03:00 PM   #54
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
nature hates excess.
ever expanding universe

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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-20-2007, 07:29 PM   #55
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

[quote=lazygood4nothinbum ]
ever expanding universe

/quote]

And the speed is increasing due to dark energy. So it is going to take longer for those aliens to get here.
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-20-2007, 08:35 PM   #56
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

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And the speed is increasing due to dark energy. So it is going to take longer for those aliens to get here.
no no no no no no. i was counting on them to buy the house. now's who's gonna get this housing market back on track? oh, i get it. aliens of the outer space variety.
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-21-2007, 08:14 AM   #57
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

...and a vacuum is frequently better than some of the things nature decides to fill it with...
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-21-2007, 08:44 PM   #58
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

I'm watching the real estate situation closely, as my wife and I would like to purchase a winter place down south (probably south carolina). We have no debt, and aren't looking at the second home as an "investment." Still, one must be prudent and I've learned the hard way that a person should buy a home with an eye toward how "saleable" it will be in the future.

I have no desire to wait till the very bottom of the market, as I've missplaced my crystal ball. Yet I don't want to grossly overspend either. I suspect there is no good answer.

Rich

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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-27-2007, 10:14 AM   #59
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

The Shiller Dec 06 numbers are out.

San Diego lost 1.7% from Nov to Dec., San Fran lost .8%, and Miami gained .2%.

These are based on resale for SF housing. No condos or new housing are examined.
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???
Old 02-27-2007, 10:30 AM   #60
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Re: Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

Homes are dropping as much as 2% a month for the last 10-12 months. Seems to be firming up and some realtor friends are reporting multiple offers and more buyers coming out. Sellers are a bit desperate though.
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