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Wow - We just had a near miss!
Old 07-30-2019, 06:45 PM   #1
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Wow - We just had a near miss!

For you asteroid watchers:

How a City-Killing Asteroid Got So Uncomfortably Close to Earth
Scientists only realized its trajectory hours before it happened.
Quote:
On July 25, an asteroid measuring somewhere between 87 and 427 feet wide got unusually close to Earth. No scientists had even detected the asteroid until a few hours before it passed by the planet. While never a true threat, the rock known as Asteroid 2019 OK is still raising questions about Earth's readiness for a space-born natural disaster.
......
OK 2019's path took it within 45,360 miles of Earth, roughly one-fifth of the distance between here and the moon.

"It’s impressively close," said Michael Brown, of Monash University’s school of physics and astronomy, to the Sydney Morning Herald. "I don’t think it’s quite sunk in yet. It’s a pretty big deal. [If it hits Earth], it makes the bang of a very large nuclear weapon—a very large one.
Read in Popular Mechanics: https://www.popularmechanics.com/spa...shes-by-earth/
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Old 07-30-2019, 06:53 PM   #2
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Wow! Impressive video animation;

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FaithfulOl...ant-mobile.mp4
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Old 07-30-2019, 07:23 PM   #3
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In the end, we are all dead. I can only deal with the things that I think I can control.

But it is scary, that it wasn't noticed that late, but if I knew it was going to strike the earth, imagine the terror one would have.
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Old 07-30-2019, 07:25 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
For you asteroid watchers:

How a City-Killing Asteroid Got So Uncomfortably Close to Earth
Scientists only realized its trajectory hours before it happened.
That's why I'd never want to live in a city.
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Old 07-30-2019, 07:31 PM   #5
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In the end, we are all dead. I can only deal with the things that I think I can control.

But it is scary, that it wasn't noticed that late, but if I knew it was going to strike the earth, imagine the terror one would have.
Maybe that is why the government did not tell us
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Old 07-30-2019, 07:40 PM   #6
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Maybe that is why the government did not tell us
I imagine all those politicians were crapp**g in their shorts while this was going on.
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Old 07-30-2019, 08:25 PM   #7
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Maybe that is why the government did not tell us
Hint: Scientists only realized its trajectory hours before it happened.

Nothing to do with "the government" here.
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Old 07-30-2019, 09:15 PM   #8
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Yes, very impressive!
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Old 07-30-2019, 10:52 PM   #9
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Old 07-31-2019, 03:29 AM   #10
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Deep space force tracking will save us from the next one.
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Old 07-31-2019, 07:24 AM   #11
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When I hear about the asteroids, I always think in terms of so much space, what are the odds that a sizeable one would hit such a tiny target as earth in our lifetime?

But when they talk about coming closer than our Moon, that sounds a bit scary. I thought I'd do a little math to soothe my fears, but...

It turns out the distance between the Moon and Earth is only 30 Earth diameters (that surprised me, that's the thing about big numbers). IOW, 30 Earths would fit between the Earth and Moon. Hmmm, so that asteroid was 1/5th that distance away from Earth, only 6 Earth diameters? So from that view, a 1 in 6 chance that an asteroid in that general path could have hit the Earth, or maybe double that to consider each side of the Earth-to-Moon path?

Of course that assumes the asteroid is in the same plane as the Earth-Moon. So I guess you need to fill a circle that size with 'Earth diameters'? I'll leave that to someone better at geometry than me, or someone with a bunch of ping pong balls, glue and time on their hands.

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Old 07-31-2019, 07:44 AM   #12
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Yes, it’s 240,000 miles to our moon, and this asteroid passed within 50,000 miles of us. That was extremely close, and amazing that we didn’t realize its trajectory heading right for us until a few hours before.
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Old 07-31-2019, 07:45 AM   #13
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Better blow that dough before we all go.
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Old 07-31-2019, 07:56 AM   #14
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Yes, itís 240,000 miles to our moon, and this asteroid passed within 50,000 miles of us. That was extremely close, and amazing that we didnít realize its trajectory heading right for us until a few hours before.
The problem with asteroids are that they are black, and the problem with space is that it is black so they are difficult to see....

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Old 07-31-2019, 07:56 AM   #15
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Hint: Scientists only realized its trajectory hours before it happened.

Nothing to do with "the government" here.
I think the democrats can use this as a failure of the space force.
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Old 07-31-2019, 08:03 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Yes, it’s 240,000 miles to our moon, and this asteroid passed within 50,000 miles of us. That was extremely close, and amazing that we didn’t realize its trajectory heading right for us until a few hours before.
Yes, but an 87 x 427 foot rock is a tiny, tiny target to see from more than 50,000 miles away! How far was it when they first detected it?

edit - oops, cross posted with some other answers to this....

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Or the volcano blows?

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Old 07-31-2019, 08:04 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
When I hear about the asteroids, I always think in terms of so much space, what are the odds that a sizeable one would hit such a tiny target as earth in our lifetime?

But when they talk about coming closer than our Moon, that sounds a bit scary. I thought I'd do a little math to soothe my fears, but...

It turns out the distance between the Moon and Earth is only 30 Earth diameters (that surprised me, that's the thing about big numbers). IOW, 30 Earths would fit between the Earth and Moon. Hmmm, so that asteroid was 1/5th that distance away from Earth, only 6 Earth diameters? So from that view, a 1 in 6 chance that an asteroid in that general path could have hit the Earth, or maybe double that to consider each side of the Earth-to-Moon path?

Of course that assumes the asteroid is in the same plane as the Earth-Moon. So I guess you need to fill a circle that size with 'Earth diameters'? I'll leave that to someone better at geometry than me, or someone with a bunch of ping pong balls, glue and time on their hands.

-ERD50
I don't think that math makes much sense. The odds would be based on how many asteroids are moving around in our solar system, effects of gravitational pull, etc. It's not how close that one asteroid came, it's how likely any asteroid will hit. Maybe there are so few asteroids that the odds are incredibly small another one will get anywhere near that close. Or maybe there are so many that it's inevitable that one will eventually hit again.

Unless there's something I don't know about many asteroids following a similar track to this one.
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Old 07-31-2019, 08:06 AM   #18
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Old 07-31-2019, 08:13 AM   #19
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I don't think that math makes much sense. The odds would be based on how many asteroids are moving around in our solar system, effects of gravitational pull, etc. It's not how close that one asteroid came, it's how likely any asteroid will hit. Maybe there are so few asteroids that the odds are incredibly small another one will get anywhere near that close. Or maybe there are so many that it's inevitable that one will eventually hit again.

Unless there's something I don't know about many asteroids following a similar track to this one.
Agreed - I was thinking in terms of this asteroid, assuming it's path was somewhat randomized between that 1/5th Earth-Moon distance. And even that assumption is kinda wacky. Just trying to put some scale to it.

Then it would depend on the odds of another asteroid coming that close to Earth again, and I have no idea what that is, and the math is still fuzzy. The only data we have is the big one they tie to dinosaur die off, and a smaller one in Russia about 100 years ago? That would have been a big deal if it hit a populated area.

Then I guess you can estimate from known craters on Earth, plus some estimate of hitting water where they might cause damage through tsunamis?

Not gonna get much precision from that.

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Old 07-31-2019, 08:22 AM   #20
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Of course that assumes the asteroid is in the same plane as the Earth-Moon. So I guess you need to fill a circle that size with 'Earth diameters'? I'll leave that to someone better at geometry than me, ...
That's not me, but I can lend a tiny bit to this!

It is now generally agreed upon that the solar system formed as an accretion disk. In the outskirts are the Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud.

The Kuiper belt objects are in the same general plane as the earth. If disrupted, there's a good chance they'll be in the same general plane, or just a bit off. So when you start discussing odds, keep in mind there is a bunching that favors the plane. It is still much more than one earth diameter. The disruption events throw it out of the exact plane enough to help our odds quite a bit (i.e. many, many earth diameters). So, the geeks generally just catalog the "earth orbit crossers" knowing all the geometries involved. The odds are still good for us. But as mentioned above, they tend to be hard to see before found and cataloged. Ouch.

Now, the Oort cloud objects are different animals. They are in more of a sphere around the sun. Because they are out there, disruptions from other stars is possible. This is a source of completely out of the blue objects that come in any plane. Most are icy, which means they tend to be comets, which are typically easier to see early.
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