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10.425% withdrawal rate succeeds in FIREcalc!
Old 07-03-2008, 04:41 PM   #1
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10.425% withdrawal rate succeeds in FIREcalc!

One out of 107 times at least!

The magic start year appears to be 1921.

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Old 07-03-2008, 04:46 PM   #2
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The magic start year appears to be 1921.
Once you figure out that little time travel bug, you're all set!
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Old 07-03-2008, 05:02 PM   #3
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Did crystal balls exist in 1921?
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Old 07-03-2008, 06:25 PM   #4
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Did crystal balls exist in 1921?
I think that he'd need a couple of brass-plated cast-iron ones...
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Old 07-03-2008, 08:05 PM   #5
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made me look!
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Old 07-03-2008, 08:33 PM   #6
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Hey this could be the 108th time. The year you retire. Never know!
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Old 07-04-2008, 06:42 AM   #7
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Fun with numbers. Isn't it great.

This little bit of trivia is a good reminder how fickle all of our planning is based on past data. I've seen other articles talking about success or failure based on specific time periods but this is the first time someone has brought up 1921. Of course, the stock market was great during the 1920's, at least up to late 1929. Maybe that was part of the "Roaring Twenties" or was that just the TV show?

It reinforces my basic plan of having a fixed base no matter what the stock market does and a variable travel/fun budget to take advantage of the upside. I wonder about people that need 3% SWR for a fancy lifestyle (I doubt they'll ever FIRE) just like I wonder about the people that FIRE on a near bread and water budget (any bumps and they're back at w*rk).
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Old 07-04-2008, 01:13 PM   #8
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Fun with numbers. Isn't it great.

This little bit of trivia is a good reminder how fickle all of our planning is based on past data. I've seen other articles talking about success or failure based on specific time periods but this is the first time someone has brought up 1921. Of course, the stock market was great during the 1920's, at least up to late 1929. Maybe that was part of the "Roaring Twenties" or was that just the TV show?

It reinforces my basic plan of having a fixed base no matter what the stock market does and a variable travel/fun budget to take advantage of the upside. I wonder about people that need 3% SWR for a fancy lifestyle (I doubt they'll ever FIRE) just like I wonder about the people that FIRE on a near bread and water budget (any bumps and they're back at w*rk).
We talk a lot about the worst case historical perspective - 4%, the Great Depression, and the stagflation of the 70's. I just got curious as to the inverse of that question - what was the highest withdrawal rate that would have survived at least one period historically, and what was that period.

I think you're right as to why 1921 is the magical year -- I think the Roaring 20's did so well that the portfolio got large enough to survive the Great Depression. I think the market was doing well around WWII, which would have helped at the end of the 30 year cycle.

Personally I'm more of a bread and water guy but I'm not FI yet and I think many folks change their minds as their original FI target approaches, so I guess I will see...

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Old 07-04-2008, 01:22 PM   #9
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Hey this could be the 108th time. The year you retire. Never know!
I actually keep track of three FIRE ratios and dates. I call them Gold, Silver, and Bronze. Gold is the traditional 4% and not having to work at all; Silver is 4% and a full-time minimum-wage job (meaning I have to work, but I don't have to worry what the salary is), and Bronze which is 4% plus a MWJ plus my A0R activity (if you don't know what this is do a google search for "lazy site:fatwallet.com" and read my thread over there).

Interestingly, my Silver ratio is 10.15%. So if I get a full-time minimum wage job and we're at the beginning of the Roaring 20's, I'm all set! Woo-hoo!

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