100% Cash - The Results from 12/31/06 & Plan

[haha]

Everyone reads the tea leaves differently, if they read them at all. One fairly concrete measure of fear vs. overconfidence is the VIX. In 2007 it got as low as 10, in the crash I believe it got as high as 70 or so. Now it is 22.65, a level that would have been thought to suggest complacency prior to the extreme complacency of 2007 but I suppose now should be considered more or less neutral.

Regarding Dex's viewpoint, I think he has a right to it, and a right to have his rights respected, whether his views ultimately prove helpful or not.

Ha

 

[ikubak]

I think it makes a difference in which industry you sell.... our company sells to banks.... most are NOT buying... boss is not optimistic...

I agree that the industry makes a difference. Maybe my observation is like trying to diagnose the patient while only looking at the foot. But from what I have seen, the foot is doing real good.

 

[dex]

I agree that the industry makes a difference. Maybe my observation is like trying to diagnose the patient while only looking at the foot. But from what I have seen, the foot is doing real good.

Blind men and an elephant


A Jain version of the story says that six blind men were asked to determine what an elephant looked like by feeling different parts of the elephant's body.
The blind man who feels a leg says the elephant is like a pillar; the one who feels the tail says the elephant is like a rope; the one who feels the trunk says the elephant is like a tree branch; the one who feels the ear says the elephant is like a hand fan; the one who feels the belly says the elephant is like a wall; and the one who feels the tusk says the elephant is like a solid pipe.
A wise man explains to them:

"All of you are right. The reason every one of you is telling it differently is because each one of you touched the different part of the elephant. So, actually the elephant has all the features you mentioned."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant#cite_note-JainWorld-0
​

This resolves the conflict, and is used to illustrate the principle of living in harmony with people who have different belief systems, and that truth can be stated in different ways (in Jainist beliefs often said to be seven versions). This is known as the Syadvada, Anekantvad, or the theory of Manifold Predictions.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant#cite_note-JainWorld-0

 

[Gone4Good]

Everyone reads the tea leaves differently, if they read them at all. One fairly concrete measure of fear vs. overconfidence is the VIX. In 2007 it got as low as 10, in the crash I believe it got as high as 70 or so. Now it is 22.65, a level that would have been thought to suggest complacency prior to the extreme complacency of 2007 but I suppose now should be considered more or less neutral.

VIX History

 

[haha]

VIX History

This is incorrect WRT the highs during the crash. Perhap this is monthly averages or some other smoothing has been applied. You perhaps did not read my last sentence?

Now it is 22.65, a level that would have been thought to suggest complacency prior to the extreme complacency of 2007 but I suppose now should be considered more or less neutral.

Anyway, please suit yourself.

Ha

 

[Gone4Good]

This is incorrect WRT the highs during the crash. Perhap this is monthly averages or some other smoothing has been applied. You perhaps did not read my last sentence?

Anyway, please suit yourself.

Ha

The chart ends in 2008, so it doesn't include the highs from the recent crisis.

Maybe I'm reading that last sentence wrong, but you seem to be saying that a 22ish VIX reflects complacency, and the only reason one might consider it "neutral" is because we've had unusually low reading in the recent past. But the index's median from 1990-2010 is just shy of 19.

http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/historical.aspx