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Old 09-15-2010, 09:15 AM   #21
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“I’ve seen sentiment turn sour in the last three months or so, generally in the media,” Buffett said. “I don’t see that in our businesses. I see we’re employing more people than a month ago, two months ago.”

I definitely think it is really more media doom-glooming than anything. Well, up until the last week when the market started doing better. They gotta sell advertising space, and the best way to do that is to create attention grabbing headlines between the ads.

I was recently interviewed (and quoted) by the WSJ or Financial Times or similar paper and I definitely got a lot of pressure to sound doom and gloomish for the fairly doom and gloom piece they wrote. Of course I stuck to my story which was generally optimistic, but the actual quote in the paper certainly conveyed the most pessimistic of my comments.
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Old 09-15-2010, 11:18 AM   #22
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I have to say that I have also noticed the slant towards media doom and gloom reporting. DW is in sales and she is busier than she can ever remember. She says her coworkers are swamped and her customers (businesses, large and small) are buying. But all I see on the news is unemployment, uncertainty, etc., etc. Got a brother who owns his own business and he says business is awesome. I don't know what is going on. Maybe it takes a while before good news flows through to some financial reports. I feel like I'm reading the vital signs of the patient and they are all strong, but news is reporting the imminent death of the patient.
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Old 09-15-2010, 12:10 PM   #23
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I have to say that I have also noticed the slant towards media doom and gloom reporting. DW is in sales and she is busier than she can ever remember. She says her coworkers are swamped and her customers (businesses, large and small) are buying. But all I see on the news is unemployment, uncertainty, etc., etc. Got a brother who owns his own business and he says business is awesome. I don't know what is going on. Maybe it takes a while before good news flows through to some financial reports. I feel like I'm reading the vital signs of the patient and they are all strong, but news is reporting the imminent death of the patient.

I think it makes a difference in which industry you sell.... our company sells to banks.... most are NOT buying... boss is not optimistic...
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Old 09-15-2010, 12:43 PM   #24
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I agree. The business media is totally focused on the negative. And while they deny it, the economy improves - very slowly for sure, but it is improving.

It's good for new investors if everyone is down in the dumps.
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Old 09-16-2010, 10:20 AM   #25
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And it's good to see that all of the world's technicians share Dex's absolute certainty about what the future holds . . .

Dow May Advance 23% by June 2011.
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Old 09-16-2010, 11:07 AM   #26
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Everyone reads the tea leaves differently, if they read them at all. One fairly concrete measure of fear vs. overconfidence is the VIX. In 2007 it got as low as 10, in the crash I believe it got as high as 70 or so. Now it is 22.65, a level that would have been thought to suggest complacency prior to the extreme complacency of 2007 but I suppose now should be considered more or less neutral.

Regarding Dex's viewpoint, I think he has a right to it, and a right to have his rights respected, whether his views ultimately prove helpful or not.

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Old 09-16-2010, 03:44 PM   #27
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I think it makes a difference in which industry you sell.... our company sells to banks.... most are NOT buying... boss is not optimistic...
I agree that the industry makes a difference. Maybe my observation is like trying to diagnose the patient while only looking at the foot. But from what I have seen, the foot is doing real good.
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Old 09-16-2010, 05:59 PM   #28
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I agree that the industry makes a difference. Maybe my observation is like trying to diagnose the patient while only looking at the foot. But from what I have seen, the foot is doing real good.

Blind men and an elephant


A Jain version of the story says that six blind men were asked to determine what an elephant looked like by feeling different parts of the elephant's body.
The blind man who feels a leg says the elephant is like a pillar; the one who feels the tail says the elephant is like a rope; the one who feels the trunk says the elephant is like a tree branch; the one who feels the ear says the elephant is like a hand fan; the one who feels the belly says the elephant is like a wall; and the one who feels the tusk says the elephant is like a solid pipe.
A wise man explains to them:
"All of you are right. The reason every one of you is telling it differently is because each one of you touched the different part of the elephant. So, actually the elephant has all the features you mentioned."
This resolves the conflict, and is used to illustrate the principle of living in harmony with people who have different belief systems, and that truth can be stated in different ways (in Jainist beliefs often said to be seven versions). This is known as the Syadvada, Anekantvad, or the theory of Manifold Predictions.
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Old 09-16-2010, 06:13 PM   #29
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Everyone reads the tea leaves differently, if they read them at all. One fairly concrete measure of fear vs. overconfidence is the VIX. In 2007 it got as low as 10, in the crash I believe it got as high as 70 or so. Now it is 22.65, a level that would have been thought to suggest complacency prior to the extreme complacency of 2007 but I suppose now should be considered more or less neutral.
VIX History

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Old 09-16-2010, 06:30 PM   #30
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VIX History

This is incorrect WRT the highs during the crash. Perhap this is monthly averages or some other smoothing has been applied. You perhaps did not read my last sentence?
Quote:
Now it is 22.65, a level that would have been thought to suggest complacency prior to the extreme complacency of 2007 but I suppose now should be considered more or less neutral.
Anyway, please suit yourself.

Ha
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Old 09-16-2010, 07:21 PM   #31
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This is incorrect WRT the highs during the crash. Perhap this is monthly averages or some other smoothing has been applied. You perhaps did not read my last sentence?

Anyway, please suit yourself.

Ha
The chart ends in 2008, so it doesn't include the highs from the recent crisis.

Maybe I'm reading that last sentence wrong, but you seem to be saying that a 22ish VIX reflects complacency, and the only reason one might consider it "neutral" is because we've had unusually low reading in the recent past. But the index's median from 1990-2010 is just shy of 19.

http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/historical.aspx
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