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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 05:13 PM   #21
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

The point is that we're all running across the highway with bags on our heads. We have absolutely no idea whats going to happen.

Some of us have two bags, just in case the first one slips.

Some are so scared of the bus that they never cross the road. Imagine your whole life standing in the breakdown lane, listening for the screams of those hit by the bus. With two bags on your head.

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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 05:33 PM   #22
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

CFB-
Great analogy.

I don't want to stop in the middle of the road, but I don't want to spend my life dancing around on the side of the road, either, missing out.

But does your metaphor mean we are going to spend 50 or 60 years crossing the road? In that case now I am getting worried!

I think we all want to get safely to the other side as quickly as possible. Is that possible? Or is the other side of the road kinda like the other side of the River Styx... sort of a terminal condition?

Hey, anybody you know building tunnels?
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 06:14 PM   #23
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

It's a great joke-- why did the ER wannabe cross the road?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ESRBob
Hey, anybody you know building* tunnels?
It's hard enough doing this topside without worrying about collapsing mineshafts...

I met an electrical engineer with a master's degree at Home Depot last week. He could have been fibbing, but he works in Home Depot's electrical-supplies department and he knows he could get called on it. As long as Home Depot is hiring people like him, I don't care how many paper bags are on my head-- I'm crossin' that road.
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 06:16 PM   #24
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute 'n' Fuzzy Bunny
The point is that we're all running across the highway with bags on our heads.* We have absolutely no idea whats going to happen.
CNFB,

I see what you mean now, and I agree.* But this analogy should not be limited to the "Early Retirement decision".* This analogy applies to life, from birth to death.

Sam
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 06:22 PM   #25
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
When I was 19 years old, I decided to escape from Vietnam by boat. My estimate chance of success is around 50%.
Thanks for the perspective! Life is risky, and you have to enjoy it while you're here.
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 06:46 PM   #26
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

You're welcome, ash.* *It was not something I wanted to do, but given the choices, I had to take the lesser evil.

Sam
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 06:54 PM   #27
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
I see what you mean now, and I agree. But this analogy should not be limited to the "Early Retirement decision". This analogy applies to life, from birth to death.
EXACTLY.

I *think* that was point in another thread where I mentioned that people working and sitting on the ER fence discount their existing risks of continued working. They're already slow boiled frogs in the pot they're in. For someone with a major commute, I wonder what the risk of accident from the daily commute is vs the chances of running out of money using a 60/40 balanced fund and a 4% withdrawal...

A bus can hit you no matter what. Whether you're ER'ed, still working, have bulletproof cheap healthcare, 10 million bucks set aside...

Ya got a plan for the bus? Putting on a second bag or standing in the breakdown lane just isnt going to cut it. The bus might veer over into the breakdown lane and get you anyhow.
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 07:33 PM   #28
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

Today's cheery thought:

"You fall out of your mother's womb, you crawl across open country under fire, and drop into your grave."


Quentin Crisp




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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 09:06 PM   #29
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem
Today's cheery thought:

"You fall out of your mother's womb, you crawl across open country under fire, and drop into your grave."

Quentin Crisp
Sometimes life is a crawl and sometimes not...

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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 09:28 PM   #30
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

Quote:
When I was 19 years old, I decided to escape from Vietnam by boat. My estimate chance of success is around 50%. I'm somewhat spoiled now after 28 years in the US, but I think I can live with 90%+ chance success Cheesy
Guys, I think Sam meant a 50% chance of not dying in the attempt. You want risk, this is risk!

Sam, take 6% if you want. You've already won the lottery, IMHO. Glad you could make it.

Best of luck,

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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate
Old 03-20-2006, 10:02 PM   #31
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Re: 100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy
You've already won the lottery, IMHO.*
I did.* Thanks Ed.

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