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Old 07-03-2014, 04:20 PM   #21
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After reading these posts I am certain of a correction in the near term.

Then for certain you should short the market ASAP



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Old 07-03-2014, 04:44 PM   #22
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And dare I say (shhh!),

"Wheeeeeeeeeee!!!"
Oh crap.
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Old 07-03-2014, 04:46 PM   #23
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Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Well, if ever there was a sell signal, that's it.
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Old 07-03-2014, 05:23 PM   #24
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Almost half way to 35,000...
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Old 07-03-2014, 05:30 PM   #25
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After reading these posts I am certain of a correction in the near term.
As long as we are in secular bull market and not secular bear market. We will see in 5-10 years.....
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Old 07-03-2014, 05:34 PM   #26
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As long as we are in secular bull market and not secular bear market. We will see in 5-10 years.....
Right. Just be careful along the way invest age appropriately e.g. don't put all your eggs in one basket (the market).
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Old 07-03-2014, 05:44 PM   #27
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Right. Just be careful along the way invest age appropriately e.g. don't put all your eggs in one basket (the market).

I am great in LBYM but not all that good in investing. So I will go with advice of someone smarter than me.

The Warren Buffett Guide to Retirement Investing - US News

IMO you don't need to be a genius to do well ......
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Old 07-03-2014, 06:08 PM   #28
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Almost half way to 35,000...
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Old 07-03-2014, 09:24 PM   #29
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And dare I say (shhh!),

"Wheeeeeeeeeee!!!"
Well, her whee from a couple of days a ago didn't cause an immediate sell off. Delayed reaction?
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Old 07-03-2014, 09:29 PM   #30
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The economy is starting to roll, consumers will spend, and the velocity of money will quicken. Light quantitative easing tapping on the brakes. Buy on those dips.
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Old 07-03-2014, 09:33 PM   #31
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We'll her whee from a couple of days a ago didn't cause an immediate sell off. Delayed reaction?
Live cat bounce.
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Old 07-03-2014, 09:42 PM   #32
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Live cat bounce.
Great one, LOL!!
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Old 07-03-2014, 09:54 PM   #33
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And dare I say (shhh!),

"Wheeeeeeeeeee!!!"
This one I take back. While my portfolio was at an all time high, still I didn't reach the milestone I was hoping to reach today. I was $1,276 short. There is no joy in Mudville.
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Old 07-03-2014, 09:56 PM   #34
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I do not want to sound like a clairvoyant here. But here's some stuff that's been rolling around and under observation for a while. I was hesitating mentioning this but since things really are looking unexpectedly rosy even for most pessimists, try this one on. To wit:

Someone recently, (can't recall the website but I'm sure some of you know who I'm talking about) did a study of someone who retired in the year 2000 with a 60/40 asset allocation. If I recall correctly, at the time of that little study the Year 2000 retiree is just about beginning to twist in the wind. It's looking bad. I said to myself: "Unless it's different this time and the 4% rule is being re-written we should be heading into a fairly long stretch of significant stock market go-uppness. Either that or some kind of economic collapse where the cost of living plummets but somehow doesn't affect their assets.

Even though I, personally, was sorta hopin' for one more Le Grand Buying Opportunity, I am convinced we have likely seen generational nominal low point for the stock market. Nobody saw 1982 until about 1985 or 86. I remember that because 1985 was when I first got into the stock market. We just might be out of the woods...?
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Old 07-03-2014, 10:11 PM   #35
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I'm going to wait until 2917 2017 to call the end of this secular bear.
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Old 07-03-2014, 11:14 PM   #36
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Even though I, personally, was sorta hopin' for one more Le Grand Buying Opportunity, I am convinced we have likely seen generational nominal low point for the stock market. Nobody saw 1982 until about 1985 or 86. I remember that because 1985 was when I first got into the stock market. We just might be out of the woods...?
Even though i'm committed to ER already i'm cautiously pessimistic moving forward. I think there is going to be a long stretch of lean years.

I'm preparing for hibernation by holding enough cash to buffer myself and also DCA during a prolonged bear to offset potential lost years a bit.

The reason i'm saying this is that at the ground level things do not look good for most younger (20-30 something) generation of savers. Unemployment figures are in my opinion much higher than is stated. Even worse is underemployment of young 30 something professionals which I see often and was a casualty of myself.

Another trend is the decreasing consumerism of young adults and the delaying marriage. This seems to point towards less overall domestic consumption.

It's hard to see where this is going to go..
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Old 07-03-2014, 11:57 PM   #37
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Another amazing market fact is that NASDAQ nearing 10% below it's all time high. Been a long haul.


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Old 07-04-2014, 04:07 AM   #38
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Another amazing market fact is that NASDAQ nearing 10% below it's all time high. Been a long haul.


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Inflation matters. There has been 38% cumulative inflation between 2000 and today. By my calculation needs to top 2050 before it really hits and all time high and a lot more for the NASDAQ.
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Old 07-04-2014, 06:02 AM   #39
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Then for certain you should short the market ASAP



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Even when I'm certain I take no action deviating from my long term AA, repeat I will take no action... Like everything else my hunches are not very accurate. So when I forecast I take no action and keep it simple.
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Old 07-04-2014, 06:06 AM   #40
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It's hard to see where this is going to go..
It always is.
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