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07-03-2014, 03:20 PM
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#21
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 277
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foxfirev5
After reading these posts I am certain of a correction in the near term.
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Then for certain you should short the market ASAP
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07-03-2014, 03:44 PM
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#22
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Moderator
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: San Diego
Posts: 14,171
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07-03-2014, 03:46 PM
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#23
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,302
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Live Free
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
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Well, if ever there was a sell signal, that's it.
__________________
When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
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07-03-2014, 04:23 PM
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#24
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,320
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Almost half way to 35,000...
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07-03-2014, 04:30 PM
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#25
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foxfirev5
After reading these posts I am certain of a correction in the near term.
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As long as we are in secular bull market and not secular bear market. We will see in 5-10 years.....
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07-03-2014, 04:34 PM
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#26
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eta2020
As long as we are in secular bull market and not secular bear market. We will see in 5-10 years.....
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Right. Just be careful along the way invest age appropriately e.g. don't put all your eggs in one basket (the market).
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07-03-2014, 04:44 PM
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#27
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by omysteve
Right. Just be careful along the way invest age appropriately e.g. don't put all your eggs in one basket (the market).
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I am great in LBYM but not all that good in investing. So I will go with advice of someone smarter than me.
The Warren Buffett Guide to Retirement Investing - US News
IMO you don't need to be a genius to do well ......
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07-03-2014, 05:08 PM
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#28
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 920
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07-03-2014, 08:24 PM
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#29
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
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Well, her whee from a couple of days a ago didn't cause an immediate sell off. Delayed reaction?
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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07-03-2014, 08:29 PM
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#30
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Madeira Beach Fl
Posts: 1,403
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The economy is starting to roll, consumers will spend, and the velocity of money will quicken. Light quantitative easing tapping on the brakes. Buy on those dips.
__________________
_______________________________________________
"A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do" --Bob Dylan.
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07-03-2014, 08:33 PM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
We'll her whee from a couple of days a ago didn't cause an immediate sell off. Delayed reaction?
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Live cat bounce.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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07-03-2014, 08:42 PM
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#32
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Live cat bounce.
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Great one, LOL!!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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07-03-2014, 08:54 PM
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#33
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,474
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__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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07-03-2014, 08:56 PM
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#34
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,962
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I do not want to sound like a clairvoyant here. But here's some stuff that's been rolling around and under observation for a while. I was hesitating mentioning this but since things really are looking unexpectedly rosy even for most pessimists, try this one on. To wit:
Someone recently, (can't recall the website but I'm sure some of you know who I'm talking about) did a study of someone who retired in the year 2000 with a 60/40 asset allocation. If I recall correctly, at the time of that little study the Year 2000 retiree is just about beginning to twist in the wind. It's looking bad. I said to myself: "Unless it's different this time and the 4% rule is being re-written we should be heading into a fairly long stretch of significant stock market go-uppness. Either that or some kind of economic collapse where the cost of living plummets but somehow doesn't affect their assets.
Even though I, personally, was sorta hopin' for one more Le Grand Buying Opportunity, I am convinced we have likely seen generational nominal low point for the stock market. Nobody saw 1982 until about 1985 or 86. I remember that because 1985 was when I first got into the stock market. We just might be out of the woods...?
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07-03-2014, 09:11 PM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,011
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I'm going to wait until 2917 2017 to call the end of this secular bear.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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07-03-2014, 10:14 PM
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#36
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by razztazz
Even though I, personally, was sorta hopin' for one more Le Grand Buying Opportunity, I am convinced we have likely seen generational nominal low point for the stock market. Nobody saw 1982 until about 1985 or 86. I remember that because 1985 was when I first got into the stock market. We just might be out of the woods...?
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Even though i'm committed to ER already i'm cautiously pessimistic moving forward. I think there is going to be a long stretch of lean years.
I'm preparing for hibernation by holding enough cash to buffer myself and also DCA during a prolonged bear to offset potential lost years a bit.
The reason i'm saying this is that at the ground level things do not look good for most younger (20-30 something) generation of savers. Unemployment figures are in my opinion much higher than is stated. Even worse is underemployment of young 30 something professionals which I see often and was a casualty of myself.
Another trend is the decreasing consumerism of young adults and the delaying marriage. This seems to point towards less overall domestic consumption.
It's hard to see where this is going to go..
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07-03-2014, 10:57 PM
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#37
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 277
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Another amazing market fact is that NASDAQ nearing 10% below it's all time high. Been a long haul.
Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
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07-04-2014, 03:07 AM
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#38
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turboslacker
Another amazing market fact is that NASDAQ nearing 10% below it's all time high. Been a long haul.
Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
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Inflation matters. There has been 38% cumulative inflation between 2000 and today. By my calculation needs to top 2050 before it really hits and all time high and a lot more for the NASDAQ.
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07-04-2014, 05:02 AM
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#39
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turboslacker
Then for certain you should short the market ASAP
Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
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Even when I'm certain I take no action deviating from my long term AA, repeat I will take no action... Like everything else my hunches are not very accurate. So when I forecast I take no action and keep it simple.
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
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07-04-2014, 05:06 AM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobafett
It's hard to see where this is going to go..
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It always is.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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