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1970s all over again?
Old 07-19-2008, 07:07 PM   #1
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1970s all over again?

Considering the current inflation and where the stock market is at doesn’t it seem like we are reliving the 70s? If I had to pick a year, I would peg this year as 1975.

^GSPC: Summary for S&P 500 INDEX,RTH - Yahoo! Finance


Not all a bad thing, because 1975 was the year I had my first real girlfriend.
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Old 07-19-2008, 07:14 PM   #2
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The 70s again, except without all the great music (and I'm only 27).
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Old 07-19-2008, 07:56 PM   #3
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Nope. No wage pricing power. People just get squeezed this time - no wage inflation spiral.

Oh - I did download Dark Side of the Moon from iTunes recently. It still sounds great!

Audrey
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Old 07-19-2008, 08:00 PM   #4
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Time to get out my "big" collar pink shirts, along with the wide ties.

Oops! I'm retired. Don't need to "dress up", nevermore ...

- Ron
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Old 07-19-2008, 08:06 PM   #5
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Nope. No wage pricing power. People just get squeezed this time - no wage inflation spiral.

Oh - I did download Dark Side of the Moon from iTunes recently. It still sounds great!

Audrey
Yep.

I also hope that the Fed learned from the mistakes of the 70's.

OTOH, we had better fundamentals in those days. We didn't have the debt we have today, and we didn't have the competition for natural resources. When the US finally got its act together and dropped its oil usage by about 15%, the world price of oil collapsed. I'm not so sure that would happen again.
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Old 07-19-2008, 08:12 PM   #6
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Im ready.

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Old 07-19-2008, 08:28 PM   #7
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I also forgot to mention that President Bush was a lot like Nixon and the Iraq war was similar to the Vietnam War.

You’re correct about no wage inflation. Back then the unions were stronger and they could negotiate better increases. And there was no foreign competition for our jobs.

The biggest thing about the 70s that I miss was women use to go around braless. Now they wear a bra so sturdy they look like they are expecting an assassination attempt!
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Old 07-19-2008, 08:33 PM   #8
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I also forgot to mention that President Bush was a lot like Nixon and the Iraq war was similar to the Vietnam War.

You’re correct about no wage inflation. Back then the unions were stronger and they could negotiate better increases. And there was no foreign competition for our jobs.

The biggest thing about the 70s that I miss was women use to go around braless. Now they wear a bra so sturdy they look like they are expecting an assassination attempt!
Kick back. Relax.. spark one up you dig.

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Old 07-19-2008, 09:36 PM   #9
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The biggest thing about the 70s that I miss was women use to go around braless. Now they wear a bra so sturdy they look like they are expecting an assassination attempt!
You oughta move to Sacramento or Phoenix. Its so hot here the women walk around wearing a pair of sheer hankies.

Bush isnt like Nixon. You need the flappy jowls to pull that off.
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Old 07-19-2008, 11:04 PM   #10
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Considering the current inflation and where the stock market is at doesn’t it seem like we are reliving the 70s? If I had to pick a year, I would peg this year as 1975.
You might want to do a reality check against the unemployment rate, price/wage controls, tariffs, and stock-trading commissions-- to say nothing of what bonds are paying.

Speaking of hankies, the eye candy at Queen's was so impressive yesterday that I let my multifocal contacts get washed away by the surf to be able to put my distance vision to better use...
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Old 07-20-2008, 11:41 AM   #11
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this doesn't seem like the 70's to me ... you can point to some similarities, but you can do that for lots of time periods.
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Old 07-20-2008, 11:51 AM   #12
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OTOH, we had better fundamentals in those days. We didn't have the debt we have today, and we didn't have the competition for natural resources. When the US finally got its act together and dropped its oil usage by about 15%, the world price of oil collapsed. I'm not so sure that would happen again.
Also in those days when inflation started rising the government calculated it in a manner that showed it really was a problem so it was eventually dealt with, even though with some pain. Today we calculate it a manner that allows us to ignore the reality that people are getting hurt by it. The result will be........
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Old 07-20-2008, 11:52 AM   #13
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Nope. No wage pricing power. People just get squeezed this time - no wage inflation spiral.
Not entirely true. Houston is going great guns.

A few of us are working (2B and me, for example) in the oil patch and are doing very well. Wage-inflation spiral going strong in Alberta. My kids, on the other hand, are not doing well.
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Old 07-20-2008, 12:40 PM   #14
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this doesn't seem like the 70's to me ... you can point to some similarities, but you can do that for lots of time periods.
Probably because we don't have double digit inflation or bonds to
match, just more whining.
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Old 07-20-2008, 01:07 PM   #15
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A paler reflection

Inflation is no where as bad as then since wages aren't increasing, but we don't measure inflation the same way we did back then and it isn't inflation that is that bad anyway but the diminution of real earnings. Comparing changes in energy prices though, we have already spanned the equivalent of the 70s. While we may have a recessionary respite in energy prices which may even last a while afterwards, I doubt it will last as long as the last time.
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Old 07-20-2008, 02:52 PM   #16
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... just more whining.
definitely more whining!
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Old 07-20-2008, 04:06 PM   #17
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Not entirely true. Houston is going great guns.

A few of us are working (2B and me, for example) in the oil patch and are doing very well. Wage-inflation spiral going strong in Alberta. My kids, on the other hand, are not doing well.
I've been getting 5% raises every six months. In the 70's I was getting 10% raises every six months.

Inflation and interest rates are still very low in comparison. Both are also low by historical standards. The big problem has been a housing bubble in small sections of the country fueled by stupid lenders and stupid buyers. Even so, people that bought their homes 3 to 5 years ago almost all are still making money. The losers are the stupid banks and the people that got caught up in the frenzy of housing going to the sky. This was within 5 years of the tech bubble collapse. You would think people would know better.

I agree that people are mostly whinning. No telling what will happen when we really get a solid recession with 10+% unemployment. Combine that with 10+% inflation and you've got the mid to late 1970s.

There are some people that are facing real problems through no fault of their own. Medical issues are the usual causes. That's really no different this year as any other. I can't believe that congress is getting ready to bail out every house flipper with my money.
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Old 07-20-2008, 04:10 PM   #18
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Nope. No wage pricing power. People just get squeezed this time - no wage inflation spiral.

Oh - I did download Dark Side of the Moon from iTunes recently. It still sounds great!

Audrey

Still perhaps the greatest album ever!! I saw Roger Waters last summer and David Gilmore's version of Pink Floyd a few years back. ahhhhhh!
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Old 07-20-2008, 06:20 PM   #19
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Nope. No wage pricing power. People just get squeezed this time - no wage inflation spiral.
I agree with this (and hope it is true). Only think I wonder about is as the baby boomers retire - there could a real shrinkage on the labor pool - which could create wage pricing power.

However the baby boomers maybe won't be retiring with their financial condition.
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Old 07-20-2008, 07:31 PM   #20
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The biggest thing about the 70s that I miss was women use to go around braless. Now they wear a bra so sturdy they look like they are expecting an assassination attempt!

That's because all those women ended up having breast lifts and they learned their lesson .
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