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2007 Recession was Over June 2009
Old 09-20-2010, 11:39 AM   #1
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2007 Recession was Over June 2009

The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. That trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007, and the beginning of a new expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

I know many folks have felt that the recession continues, but the NBER finally confirmed that it did indeed end early summer 2009 - well over a year ago.

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Old 09-20-2010, 12:15 PM   #2
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I can accept that. Still, the high unemployment figures are extremely distressing, whatever the cause.
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Old 09-20-2010, 12:22 PM   #3
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The technical definition of a recession may well be past us, but as long as the jobs aren't coming back, few people will call it a "recovery."
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Old 09-20-2010, 12:26 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. That trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007, and the beginning of a new expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

I know many folks have felt that the recession continues, but the NBER finally confirmed that it did indeed end early summer 2009 - well over a year ago.

Audrey
It is an advantage for some to keep the masses roused with talk of unending recession, unemployment, deficits...

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I can accept that. Still, the high unemployment figures are extremely distressing, whatever the cause.
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The technical definition of a recession may well be past us, but as long as the jobs aren't coming back, few people will call it a "recovery."
The new "new"... Employment is a "lagging indicator", if that's any consolation...
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Old 09-20-2010, 12:29 PM   #5
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The new "new"... Employment is a "lagging indicator", if that's any consolation...
This is true, but I also suspect many folks, myself included, just don't see a significant uptick in employment for at least the next 2-3 years. There just isn't demand and too much deflationary pressure. High unemployment will just keep feeding wage contraction as employers take advantage of high unemployment to keep lowering the bar on new offers. The more desperate job seekers get, the more employers can low-ball them.
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Old 09-20-2010, 12:35 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. That trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007, and the beginning of a new expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

I know many folks have felt that the recession continues, but the NBER finally confirmed that it did indeed end early summer 2009 - well over a year ago.

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If you believe that, I have some nice swampland to sell ya..........
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Old 09-20-2010, 12:42 PM   #7
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Oh! Please don't let this degenerate into a "political" thread... it has the potential to be useful.
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Old 09-20-2010, 12:42 PM   #8
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Oh! Please don't let this degenerate into a "political" thread... it has the potential to be useful.
Huh? I don't see any politics in here....
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Old 09-20-2010, 12:42 PM   #9
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Old 09-20-2010, 01:09 PM   #10
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Huh? I don't see any politics in here....
Call it a preemptive strike.
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Old 09-20-2010, 02:12 PM   #11
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Double-dip anyone?
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Old 09-20-2010, 02:13 PM   #12
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This is true, but I also suspect many folks, myself included, just don't see a significant uptick in employment for at least the next 2-3 years. There just isn't demand and too much deflationary pressure. High unemployment will just keep feeding wage contraction as employers take advantage of high unemployment to keep lowering the bar on new offers. The more desperate job seekers get, the more employers can low-ball them.

Jobless rates seen high for many more years | Reuters
2013
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Old 09-20-2010, 02:15 PM   #13
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Oh! Please don't let this degenerate into a "political" thread... it has the potential to be useful.
Only politics I can see is that the party in power in 2013/4 will get credit for the uptrend. See above post.
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Old 09-20-2010, 02:19 PM   #14
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Only politics I can see is that the party in power in 2013/4 will get credit for the uptrend. See above post.
Uptrend? That assumes there will be a significant uptrend, at least for the masses. The GDP can say what it wants with respect to being "up." The average American, the endangered middle class, knows what it's feeling in terms of unemployment, job insecurity, stagnant or cut wages, decreasing benefits and "biflation."

Until the middle class starts seeing and feeling the effects of a "recovery" it's not going to be one for them.
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Old 09-20-2010, 02:29 PM   #15
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Until the middle class starts seeing and feeling the effects of a "recovery" it's not going to be one for them.
A Recovery’s Long Odds

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With those coping mechanisms now exhausted, it’s painfully obvious that the economy has failed working Americans.
There was plenty of growth, but the economic benefits went overwhelmingly — and unfairly — to those already at the top. ...

The richest one-tenth of 1 percent, representing 130,000 households, took in more than 11 percent of total income in 2007.

That does not leave enough spending power with the rest of the population to sustain a flourishing economy.

With so much of the middle class and the rest of working America tapped out, there is not enough consumer demand for the goods and services that the U.S. economy is capable of producing. Without that demand, there are precious few prospects for a robust recovery.
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Old 09-20-2010, 02:40 PM   #16
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Uptrend? That assumes there will be a significant uptrend, at least for the masses.
You have to link the two posts - the news article mentions the unemployment rate (not GDP) will remain high until 2013 and then improve. So as it usually goes, the political party in power at the time will take credit for the improvement


Here is another article.
US employment will reach pre-crisis level only in 2013: OECD - International Business Times
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Old 09-20-2010, 02:55 PM   #17
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It’s a recovery and our economy is in “stable state, growing slowly. Like Melvin Udall, we now have to deal with :
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As to FinanceDude's question

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Double-dip anyone?
We’re already over a year into the recovery. The next recession will be a new one, although we can debtate the semantics of this forever. To be fair, ECRI still says there is a 50% chance of a relapse before year end.
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Old 09-20-2010, 04:11 PM   #18
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It’s a recovery and our economy is in “stable state, growing slowly. Like Melvin Udall, we now have to deal with : As to FinanceDude's question

We’re already over a year into the recovery. The next recession will be a new one, although we can debtate the semantics of this forever. To be fair, ECRI still says there is a 50% chance of a relapse before year end.
Should there not be job growth coming out of a recession? I don't call almost 10% unemployment a "recovery"...........
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Old 09-20-2010, 04:28 PM   #19
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Should there not be job growth coming out of a recession? I don't call almost 10% unemployment a "recovery"...........
Problem is, our "steady state" or equilibrium point is disappointing but sustainable. It is likely to continue like this until some external force changes the slope. Could be a large increase in spending, promoting faster growth and employment - or a large decrease in spending, slipping back into recession. Nothing being discussed in DC today will have any impact.
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Old 09-20-2010, 05:28 PM   #20
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The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. That trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007, and the beginning of a new expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

I know many folks have felt that the recession continues, but the NBER finally confirmed that it did indeed end early summer 2009 - well over a year ago.

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