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View Poll Results: What will the Dow be on 12/31/2009
6000 6 5.71%
7000 6 5.71%
8000 5 4.76%
9000 15 14.29%
10000 30 28.57%
11000 32 30.48%
12000 9 8.57%
13000 0 0%
14000 2 1.90%
Voters: 105. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-06-2009, 11:22 PM   #21
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I respect your judgment as you give reasons for your expectations, and you have been right a lot more than wrong on this board. Still, I wonder if these temporally or geographically remote events shine much light on our modern situation?

Ha
I truly hope not, but if Clif is going to give out prizes I though I might as well give out my best guess.
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Old 01-07-2009, 01:02 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by haha View Post
I have no clue. I do think that I will very likely have a higher net worth at year end 2009, at least I hope so.

Ha
I'm rather sure I'll have more money by then too.
I'm also positive each dollar will be worth less.

Better off than many will be I guess.
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Old 01-07-2009, 06:29 PM   #23
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I predict a dow around 7000.
I don't see housing hitting the bottom yet.
I don't see unemployment hitting it's high yet.
I think corporate profits will continue to go down.
I think consumer confidence & spending will continue to go down.
I think a lot people have given up on their 401Ks. And they'll be real slow to jump back in. Forget the market "six month look-ahead". People are going to need to see the numbers actually make a bottom.

And the good news.... we'll be a year closer to hitting the bottom.
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Old 01-07-2009, 06:47 PM   #24
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I think a lot people have given up on their 401Ks. And they'll be real slow to jump back in. Forget the market "six month look-ahead". People are going to need to see the numbers actually make a bottom.
Actually, in the tech wreck and after 9/11, less than 20% of all 401K folks quit contributing. ANother smaller amount reduced what they were putting in. Most just let it go on as before.......
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Old 01-07-2009, 07:31 PM   #25
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8000 - 2nd half optimists becomes pessimists. How can we compare past bear markets to this one? Some policy mistakes can be repeated but so much of our world has changed.
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Old 01-07-2009, 07:41 PM   #26
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There is a lot of money on the sidelines so if the market starts to rally these people will return so I'm betting on making some money this year . It will basically be two steps forward and one back .
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Old 01-07-2009, 07:46 PM   #27
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At the end of 2009 the DOW will still be the DOW.
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Old 01-07-2009, 10:50 PM   #28
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There is a lot of money on the sidelines so if the market starts to rally these people will return so I'm betting on making some money this year . It will basically be two steps forward and one back .
I hope so too. From BusinessWeek, 1/12/09, p.6:
$8.85 trillion: the amount Americans have in cash and cash equivalents at the end of November. That's equal to 74% of the combined market value of the S&P 500, the highest since 1990.
Now, there's talk about a trillion dollar stimulus, on top of the existing bailout. More money coming our way. A trillion here, a trillion there. We are talking more than small change here. I have said before about cash: there's more where that comes from. Seems like an infinite supply, which it is.
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Old 01-08-2009, 07:32 AM   #29
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Well, went thru this in the last Bear Market.. Back then it was Tech bubble that destroyed things, this Time it's The RE market ...
If they get the RE market straightened out just enough by spring? Look out..Things will Skyrocket regardless of what Co.'s are doing..
Why? Human Nature.. Homes worth more, they will spend more.. most are too dumb to Not use their homes for Equity Loans to buy Toys-They want it now and still do..
And thus It will be Buy, Buy, buy again..

The yrs following? Reits will drive the market again..for the Middle and Upper Class
There is a ton of $ pent up by them , some saying over $10 Trillion now just waiting to buy.. As for Debt ? Who cares if we have a $1 Trillion Debt.. Divide that by the 150 million taxpayers topay it off and it's chump change.. Ask youreslf - Would you be willing to pay $5,000 in added taxes to Keep your $60,000 Yr Job? Or loose your job? Would be willing to pay another 5% in Captial Gains Taxes to Get your Savings Investment Portfolio back to even again? And then to make 10% a yr fwd..?

And ask those Unemployed that were making $40k yr or less.." Would you be willing to pay 5% more In taxes to get your Job back?"

In a Heartbeat..

everything is justifiable..Just has to be presented in the right way and Looks like Pres. Obama is the guy to do it..

I hope so... Counting on it..
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My predictions for 2009
Old 01-08-2009, 07:59 AM   #30
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My predictions for 2009

The Cubs will win the world series
My kids will be thankful for all I have done for them
My wife will appreciate me
President Obama will fix all our problems
Ex-president Bush will admit he was wrong
and...
The Dow will rise 25%
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Old 01-08-2009, 09:34 AM   #31
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The last couple of days have been our punishment for this poll's results being too bullish!
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Old 01-08-2009, 09:38 AM   #32
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Well, went thru this in the last Bear Market.. Back then it was Tech bubble that destroyed things, this Time it's The RE market ...
If they get the RE market straightened out just enough by spring? Look out..Things will Skyrocket regardless of what Co.'s are doing..
"Please God, just one more bubble" -- Bumper Sticker

So far, I do much better this time than the last bubble in 2000-2003 tech burst, when I lost 50%. Please note the word "so far". A cautious guy, I always qualify my claims.
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Old 01-08-2009, 09:39 AM   #33
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If the Dow closes at 9500 by 12/31/09, I will be more than happy.
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Old 08-05-2009, 03:35 PM   #34
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In addition to voting if any folks want to gaze into your crystal ball and add other predictions, please feel free. I'll judge the result next year and even hand out prizes...

Dow 12,200
S&P 1240
10 Year Treasury Interest Rate 3.9%

Ronald Burris will be the Senator from Illinois.
Paula Abdul will no longer be a judge on American Idol.

Well the prize for the closest Dow and S&P still remains to be given.

FinanceDude prediction of Dow 9500 is looking pretty good.

However, after today's announcement about Paula I think I am great shape for the best non financial predictions.
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Old 08-05-2009, 03:59 PM   #35
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Congrats clifp! Amazing Prediction
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Old 08-23-2009, 08:18 AM   #36
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If the Dow closes at 9500 by 12/31/09, I will be more than happy.
DOW closed at 9506 on Friday 8/21/09.

So are you more than happy now?

Audrey
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Old 08-23-2009, 08:42 AM   #37
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DOW closed at 9506 on Friday 8/21/09.

So are you more than happy now?

Audrey
FD announced he has nothing more to say on the forum, so don't expect a reply...
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Old 08-23-2009, 08:44 AM   #38
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FD announced he has nothing more to say on the forum, so don't expect a reply...
Oh right - I vaguely remember that. Never mind!

Audrey
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Old 08-23-2009, 11:59 AM   #39
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I voted 14k. Im an optimist. Or slightly out of touch

Damn looks like Ill be wrong . Just because its 9500 now doesn't mean it cant go back down.
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Old 10-14-2009, 06:13 PM   #40
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Time to bump this poll up too. I'm still in the DOW 11000 cheering section.

Audrey
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