View Poll Results: What will the Dow be on 12/31/2009
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6000
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6 |
5.71% |
7000
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6 |
5.71% |
8000
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5 |
4.76% |
9000
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15 |
14.29% |
10000
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30 |
28.57% |
11000
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32 |
30.48% |
12000
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9 |
8.57% |
13000
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0 |
0% |
14000
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2 |
1.90% |
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01-06-2009, 10:22 PM
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#21
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,840
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I respect your judgment as you give reasons for your expectations, and you have been right a lot more than wrong on this board. Still, I wonder if these temporally or geographically remote events shine much light on our modern situation?
Ha
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I truly hope not, but if Clif is going to give out prizes I though I might as well give out my best guess.
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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01-07-2009, 12:02 AM
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#22
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I have no clue. I do think that I will very likely have a higher net worth at year end 2009, at least I hope so.
Ha
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I'm rather sure I'll have more money by then too.
I'm also positive each dollar will be worth less.
Better off than many will be I guess.
__________________
Consult with only myself as your adviser or representative. My thoughts should be construed as investment advice of the highest caliber. Past performance is but a pale shadow and guarantee of even greater results in the future.
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01-07-2009, 05:29 PM
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#23
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 848
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I predict a dow around 7000.
I don't see housing hitting the bottom yet.
I don't see unemployment hitting it's high yet.
I think corporate profits will continue to go down.
I think consumer confidence & spending will continue to go down.
I think a lot people have given up on their 401Ks. And they'll be real slow to jump back in. Forget the market "six month look-ahead". People are going to need to see the numbers actually make a bottom.
And the good news.... we'll be a year closer to hitting the bottom.
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01-07-2009, 05:47 PM
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#24
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmpi
I think a lot people have given up on their 401Ks. And they'll be real slow to jump back in. Forget the market "six month look-ahead". People are going to need to see the numbers actually make a bottom.
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Actually, in the tech wreck and after 9/11, less than 20% of all 401K folks quit contributing. ANother smaller amount reduced what they were putting in. Most just let it go on as before.......
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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01-07-2009, 06:31 PM
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#25
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
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8000 - 2nd half optimists becomes pessimists. How can we compare past bear markets to this one? Some policy mistakes can be repeated but so much of our world has changed.
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
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01-07-2009, 06:41 PM
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#26
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Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 11,447
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There is a lot of money on the sidelines so if the market starts to rally these people will return so I'm betting on making some money this year . It will basically be two steps forward and one back .
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01-07-2009, 06:46 PM
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#27
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,496
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At the end of 2009 the DOW will still be the DOW.
__________________
There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
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01-07-2009, 09:50 PM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moemg
There is a lot of money on the sidelines so if the market starts to rally these people will return so I'm betting on making some money this year . It will basically be two steps forward and one back .
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I hope so too. From BusinessWeek, 1/12/09, p.6: $8.85 trillion: the amount Americans have in cash and cash equivalents at the end of November. That's equal to 74% of the combined market value of the S&P 500, the highest since 1990.
Now, there's talk about a trillion dollar stimulus, on top of the existing bailout. More money coming our way. A trillion here, a trillion there. We are talking more than small change here. I have said before about cash: there's more where that comes from. Seems like an infinite supply, which it is.
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01-08-2009, 06:32 AM
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#29
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 295
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Well, went thru this in the last Bear Market.. Back then it was Tech bubble that destroyed things, this Time it's The RE market ...
If they get the RE market straightened out just enough by spring? Look out..Things will Skyrocket regardless of what Co.'s are doing..
Why? Human Nature.. Homes worth more, they will spend more.. most are too dumb to Not use their homes for Equity Loans to buy Toys-They want it now and still do..
And thus It will be Buy, Buy, buy again..
The yrs following? Reits will drive the market again..for the Middle and Upper Class
There is a ton of $ pent up by them , some saying over $10 Trillion now just waiting to buy.. As for Debt ? Who cares if we have a $1 Trillion Debt.. Divide that by the 150 million taxpayers topay it off and it's chump change.. Ask youreslf - Would you be willing to pay $5,000 in added taxes to Keep your $60,000 Yr Job? Or loose your job? Would be willing to pay another 5% in Captial Gains Taxes to Get your Savings Investment Portfolio back to even again? And then to make 10% a yr fwd..?
And ask those Unemployed that were making $40k yr or less.." Would you be willing to pay 5% more In taxes to get your Job back?"
In a Heartbeat..
everything is justifiable..Just has to be presented in the right way and Looks like Pres. Obama is the guy to do it..
I hope so... Counting on it..
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01-08-2009, 06:59 AM
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#30
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
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My predictions for 2009
The Cubs will win the world series
My kids will be thankful for all I have done for them
My wife will appreciate me
President Obama will fix all our problems
Ex-president Bush will admit he was wrong
and...
The Dow will rise 25%
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01-08-2009, 08:34 AM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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The last couple of days have been our punishment for this poll's results being too bullish!
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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01-08-2009, 08:38 AM
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#32
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis
Well, went thru this in the last Bear Market.. Back then it was Tech bubble that destroyed things, this Time it's The RE market ...
If they get the RE market straightened out just enough by spring? Look out..Things will Skyrocket regardless of what Co.'s are doing..
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"Please God, just one more bubble" -- Bumper Sticker
So far, I do much better this time than the last bubble in 2000-2003 tech burst, when I lost 50%. Please note the word "so far". A cautious guy, I always qualify my claims.
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01-08-2009, 08:39 AM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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If the Dow closes at 9500 by 12/31/09, I will be more than happy.
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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08-05-2009, 02:35 PM
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#34
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
In addition to voting if any folks want to gaze into your crystal ball and add other predictions, please feel free. I'll judge the result next year and even hand out prizes...
Dow 12,200
S&P 1240
10 Year Treasury Interest Rate 3.9%
Ronald Burris will be the Senator from Illinois.
Paula Abdul will no longer be a judge on American Idol.
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Well the prize for the closest Dow and S&P still remains to be given.
FinanceDude prediction of Dow 9500 is looking pretty good.
However, after today's announcement about Paula I think I am great shape for the best non financial predictions.
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08-05-2009, 02:59 PM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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08-23-2009, 07:18 AM
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#36
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude
If the Dow closes at 9500 by 12/31/09, I will be more than happy.
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DOW closed at 9506 on Friday 8/21/09.
So are you more than happy now?
Audrey
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08-23-2009, 07:42 AM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
DOW closed at 9506 on Friday 8/21/09.
So are you more than happy now?
Audrey
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FD announced he has nothing more to say on the forum, so don't expect a reply...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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08-23-2009, 07:44 AM
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#38
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
FD announced he has nothing more to say on the forum, so don't expect a reply...
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Oh right - I vaguely remember that. Never mind!
Audrey
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08-23-2009, 10:59 AM
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#39
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Damn looks like Ill be wrong . Just because its 9500 now doesn't mean it cant go back down.
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10-14-2009, 05:13 PM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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Time to bump this poll up too. I'm still in the DOW 11000 cheering section.
Audrey
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