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View Poll Results: What will the Dow be on 12/31/2009
6000 6 5.71%
7000 6 5.71%
8000 5 4.76%
9000 15 14.29%
10000 30 28.57%
11000 32 30.48%
12000 9 8.57%
13000 0 0%
14000 2 1.90%
Voters: 105. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-14-2009, 06:17 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Time to bump this poll up too. I'm still in the DOW 11000 cheering section.

Audrey
Why? We've still got over two months before the end of 2009, when this poll will apply... the Dow could still go down to 2350 by then!
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Old 10-14-2009, 06:17 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
Based on other times in history with housing collapses, I can't see the upside expected. Be nice if it happens but I am expecting:

Dow 4,632
So far it looks like you may finally be wrong.
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Old 10-14-2009, 06:18 PM   #43
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So far it looks like you may finally be wrong.
Maybe not!! We've still got over 1/6th of a year to go for this poll. As volatile as things have been over the past year, I wouldn't assume anything this early.
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Old 10-14-2009, 06:20 PM   #44
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That's why I said "so far".
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Old 10-14-2009, 07:38 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
FD announced he has nothing more to say on the forum, so don't expect a reply...
Hey, he's back! Maybe he'll catch up with this thread now.

Audrey
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Old 10-14-2009, 07:39 PM   #46
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I voted 14k. Im an optimist. Or slightly out of touch
Damn only 4k off so far.
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Old 10-14-2009, 07:39 PM   #47
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Why? We've still got over two months before the end of 2009, when this poll will apply... the Dow could still go down to 2350 by then!
Hey - DOW 11,000 was my guess in Jan, and it's still good enough for me!

DOW 2350 - WHAAAAAaaaaat?!?!

Audrey
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Old 12-21-2009, 03:31 PM   #48
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Ok with 7 trading days left. Ronstars prediction of Dow 10,487 looks remarkably accurate the Dow closed today at 10,418. There is still hope for the Dow 11,000 crowd though.

Actually Kudos are in order for the forum members in generally 62 out of 105 had the Dow closing between 10,000 and 11,000. I believe the Dow was at 9,016 when I posted the poll.
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Old 12-21-2009, 04:01 PM   #49
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Slightly off topic, but I predict Tiger Woods will have an affair in 2009...
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Old 12-21-2009, 04:20 PM   #50
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Ok with 7 trading days left. Ronstars prediction of Dow 10,487 looks remarkably accurate the Dow closed today at 10,418. There is still hope for the Dow 11,000 crowd though.

Actually Kudos are in order for the forum members in generally 62 out of 105 had the Dow closing between 10,000 and 11,000. I believe the Dow was at 9,016 when I posted the poll.
I'm within 1% of my all time high in ER(since 1993) measured in portfolio $(2007 was previous peak) AFTER taking out $ for expenses. So that's ok.

Not counting inflation and the Saints lost.

heh heh heh - I have not achieved the true Boglehead Zen-ness of 'Don't Know Don't Care' but I am full auto in Target Retirement.

Except for a few Norwegian widow stocks - for the hormones. .
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Old 12-28-2009, 08:23 PM   #51
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Three more trading days. Dow 10,547 (rounds to Dow 11,000 )

Audrey
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Old 12-28-2009, 09:36 PM   #52
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Three more trading days. Dow 10,547 (rounds to Dow 11,000 )

Audrey
It does but no rounding on my poll absolute difference is what counts.
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Old 12-28-2009, 09:41 PM   #53
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I will be right eventually.
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Old 12-28-2009, 09:46 PM   #54
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Oh THANK GOODNESS!! In the past, our polls have been pretty close. If the Dow is 11,000 at the end of the year, as this poll predicts so far, I will be deliriously happy, the universe will be regaining its balance, and all that sort of good thing.
In case anybody wondered, after reading the above 1/6/09 post, I should note that I am already deliriously happy, the universe is regaining its balance, and all that sort of good thing.
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Old 12-28-2009, 09:56 PM   #55
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Aren't we a prescient group or what!! Since we couldn't vote in 500 increments, it's fair to say that the group predicted 10,500 (average of the two largest cohorts), and we will be very close to the actual number on 12/31/09.
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Old 12-28-2009, 09:58 PM   #56
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It does but no rounding on my poll absolute difference is what counts.
Huh? Absolute difference compared to what?

Audrey
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Old 12-28-2009, 10:28 PM   #57
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The difference between the Jan prediction and the index. Ronstar guessed 10,418 which means he is only off by 129 points from today's close of 10,547. The 11,000 folks are off by 453. I'll go back and double check the S&P 500 guesses but I don't think they are very close.
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Old 12-28-2009, 11:14 PM   #58
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I think the majority of the voters here voted right on .... so far.

I think I voted for either 6000 or 7000 and I am glad I was wrong.
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Old 12-30-2009, 08:21 PM   #59
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One more trading day. Still stuck just above 10,500.
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Old 01-02-2010, 04:29 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by Ronstar View Post
I'm saying 10,487 based on no supporting info. Its just a guess.
The Dow finished at 10,428 and the S&P at 1,115

Ron's "guess" was off by 59 points or tiny .56% error rate an impressive guess prediction and is the official winner. Look for him on CNBC soon , I'll contact him regarding his prize.

Not many people made other predictions.

I think mine is probably the most accurate given that Senate leaders vowed not to seat Burris and nobody was discussing Paula leaving the show.
Quote:
Ronald Burris will be the Senator from Illinois.
Paula Abdul will no longer be a judge on American Idol.
Honorable mention goes to Uncle Mick for forecasting the Saints making the playoff, if he had gone whole hog and predicted the Saints win the Superbowl, that would have been very impressive. (of course they still have to do it.)

Also Michael B bold predictions win the best sardonic response.
Quote:
The Cubs will win the world series
My kids will be thankful for all I have done for them
My wife will appreciate me
President Obama will fix all our problems
Ex-president Bush will admit he was wrong
and...
The Dow will rise 25%
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