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View Poll Results: What will the Dow be on 12/31/2009
6000 6 5.71%
7000 6 5.71%
8000 5 4.76%
9000 15 14.29%
10000 30 28.57%
11000 32 30.48%
12000 9 8.57%
13000 0 0%
14000 2 1.90%
Voters: 105. You may not vote on this poll

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2009 Predictions
Old 01-06-2009, 03:27 PM   #1
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2009 Predictions

What will the Dow be at the end of 2009
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Old 01-06-2009, 03:34 PM   #2
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In addition to voting if any folks want to gaze into your crystal ball and add other predictions, please feel free. I'll judge the result next year and even hand out prizes...

Dow 12,200
S&P 1240
10 Year Treasury Interest Rate 3.9%

Ronald Burris will be the Senator from Illinois.
Paula Abdul will no longer be a judge on American Idol.
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Old 01-06-2009, 03:37 PM   #3
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I have no clue. I do think that I will very likely have a higher net worth at year end 2009, at least I hope so.

Ha
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Old 01-06-2009, 03:53 PM   #4
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11ish would be good.
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Old 01-06-2009, 03:54 PM   #5
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As a contrarian, I don't like the results so far....
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Old 01-06-2009, 03:59 PM   #6
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9872.15
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Old 01-06-2009, 04:30 PM   #7
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I voted 14k. Im an optimist. Or slightly out of touch
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Old 01-06-2009, 04:58 PM   #8
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Oh THANK GOODNESS!! In the past, our polls have been pretty close. If the Dow is 11,000 at the end of the year, as this poll predicts so far, I will be deliriously happy, the universe will be regaining its balance, and all that sort of good thing.
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Old 01-06-2009, 05:04 PM   #9
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I'm gonna go big and say dow 11,000. That represents a 25% increase for 2009.

Oil - $55/bbl
Gas - $1.35/gal wholesale

My net worth: up some.
Hair: more gone.
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Old 01-06-2009, 05:33 PM   #10
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I'm saying 10,487 based on no supporting info. Its just a guess.
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Old 01-06-2009, 05:39 PM   #11
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Based on other times in history with housing collapses, I can't see the upside expected. Be nice if it happens but I am expecting:

Dow 4,632
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Old 01-06-2009, 06:14 PM   #12
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Quote:
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Based on other times in history with housing collapses, I can't see the upside expected. Be nice if it happens but I am expecting:

Dow 4,632
I find it interesting the the poll only allows for a 3000 drop but allows a 5000 gain.

It's probably not intended to be a push poll but it is as our tendency is to vote near the middle of the given values so you don't seem like a nut.

I'll bet that if the poll went from 9000 to 18000 we'd see more votes in the 1300 range instead of the 10000 range.
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Old 01-06-2009, 08:15 PM   #13
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Based on other times in history with housing collapses...
Can you list some of these times? The great depression USA, 1929; Japan 1989. Are there any others?

Ha
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Old 01-06-2009, 08:30 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frugality_of_Apathy View Post
I find it interesting the the poll only allows for a 3000 drop but allows a 5000 gain.

It's probably not intended to be a push poll but it is as our tendency is to vote near the middle of the given values so you don't seem like a nut.

I'll bet that if the poll went from 9000 to 18000 we'd see more votes in the 1300 range instead of the 10000 range.
I thought about this effect before constructing the poll, I ended allowing for a 50% decrease in the Dow and 56% increase which is reasonably symmetrical. This range encompasses the vast majority of 1 year changes in the DJIA.
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Old 01-06-2009, 09:17 PM   #15
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I voted 11000. But I also picked the Cowboys to win the super bowl, McCain to win the presidency, and The Red Sox to win the Series. So, I could be wrong!
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Old 01-06-2009, 09:24 PM   #16
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12000 and the Saint's make the playoffs.

heh heh heh - hope springs eternal. Meanwhile I'll be shifting deck chairs on the Titanic to try and upgrade the yields on my Norwegian widow stocks - at least until next football season.
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Old 01-06-2009, 10:23 PM   #17
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I'm mostly in cash for now. I lost about 12% in 2008 and am thankful for that. I think we'll see at least one more big dip in Q1 2009 so I'm staying on the sidelines for a bit longer.

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"- John Maynard Keynes
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Old 01-06-2009, 10:29 PM   #18
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DOW 20,000 and my Mississippi State Bulldogs go undefeated in all sports.
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Old 01-06-2009, 10:58 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by haha View Post
Can you list some of these times? The great depression USA, 1929; Japan 1989. Are there any others?

Ha
What is referred to as the "Great Train Wreck of 1890 - 1896" at the time the price declines were mostly for farms, but that was the primary residence at the time.

The decline in land values following the Civil war in 1867 leading to the Great Long Depression of 1870.
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Old 01-06-2009, 11:04 PM   #20
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What is referred to as the "Great Train Wreck of 1890 - 1896" at the time the price declines were mostly for farms, but that was the primary residence at the time.

The decline in land values following the Civil war in 1867 leading to the Great Long Depression of 1870.
I respect your judgment as you give reasons for your expectations, and you have been right a lot more than wrong on this board. Still, I wonder if these temporally or geographically remote events shine much light on our modern situation?

Ha
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