Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: What will the Dow be on 12/31/2009
6000 6 5.71%
7000 6 5.71%
8000 5 4.76%
9000 15 14.29%
10000 30 28.57%
11000 32 30.48%
12000 9 8.57%
13000 0 0%
14000 2 1.90%
Voters: 105. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
2009 Predictions
Old 01-06-2009, 02:27 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,455
2009 Predictions

What will the Dow be at the end of 2009
__________________

clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-06-2009, 02:34 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,455
In addition to voting if any folks want to gaze into your crystal ball and add other predictions, please feel free. I'll judge the result next year and even hand out prizes...

Dow 12,200
S&P 1240
10 Year Treasury Interest Rate 3.9%

Ronald Burris will be the Senator from Illinois.
Paula Abdul will no longer be a judge on American Idol.
__________________

clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 02:37 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,567
I have no clue. I do think that I will very likely have a higher net worth at year end 2009, at least I hope so.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 02:53 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
73ss454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,378
11ish would be good.
73ss454 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 02:54 PM   #5
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,624
As a contrarian, I don't like the results so far....
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 02:59 PM   #6
Full time employment: Posting here.
Frugality_of_Apathy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 622
9872.15
Frugality_of_Apathy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 03:30 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
I voted 14k. Im an optimist. Or slightly out of touch
Notmuchlonger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 03:58 PM   #8
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 40,278
Oh THANK GOODNESS!! In the past, our polls have been pretty close. If the Dow is 11,000 at the end of the year, as this poll predicts so far, I will be deliriously happy, the universe will be regaining its balance, and all that sort of good thing.
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 04:04 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,655
I'm gonna go big and say dow 11,000. That represents a 25% increase for 2009.

Oil - $55/bbl
Gas - $1.35/gal wholesale

My net worth: up some.
Hair: more gone.
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 04:33 PM   #10
Moderator Emeritus
Ronstar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: A little ways southwest of Chicago
Posts: 10,010
I'm saying 10,487 based on no supporting info. Its just a guess.
Ronstar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 04:39 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,770
Based on other times in history with housing collapses, I can't see the upside expected. Be nice if it happens but I am expecting:

Dow 4,632
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 05:14 PM   #12
Full time employment: Posting here.
Frugality_of_Apathy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 622
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
Based on other times in history with housing collapses, I can't see the upside expected. Be nice if it happens but I am expecting:

Dow 4,632
I find it interesting the the poll only allows for a 3000 drop but allows a 5000 gain.

It's probably not intended to be a push poll but it is as our tendency is to vote near the middle of the given values so you don't seem like a nut.

I'll bet that if the poll went from 9000 to 18000 we'd see more votes in the 1300 range instead of the 10000 range.
Frugality_of_Apathy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 07:15 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,567
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
Based on other times in history with housing collapses...
Can you list some of these times? The great depression USA, 1929; Japan 1989. Are there any others?

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 07:30 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,455
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frugality_of_Apathy View Post
I find it interesting the the poll only allows for a 3000 drop but allows a 5000 gain.

It's probably not intended to be a push poll but it is as our tendency is to vote near the middle of the given values so you don't seem like a nut.

I'll bet that if the poll went from 9000 to 18000 we'd see more votes in the 1300 range instead of the 10000 range.
I thought about this effect before constructing the poll, I ended allowing for a 50% decrease in the Dow and 56% increase which is reasonably symmetrical. This range encompasses the vast majority of 1 year changes in the DJIA.
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 08:17 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Eagle43's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: DFW
Posts: 1,909
I voted 11000. But I also picked the Cowboys to win the super bowl, McCain to win the presidency, and The Red Sox to win the Series. So, I could be wrong!
__________________
Resist much. Obey Little. . . . Ed Abbey

Disclaimer: My Posts are for my amusement only.
Eagle43 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 08:24 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,466
12000 and the Saint's make the playoffs.

heh heh heh - hope springs eternal. Meanwhile I'll be shifting deck chairs on the Titanic to try and upgrade the yields on my Norwegian widow stocks - at least until next football season.
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 09:23 PM   #17
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4
I'm mostly in cash for now. I lost about 12% in 2008 and am thankful for that. I think we'll see at least one more big dip in Q1 2009 so I'm staying on the sidelines for a bit longer.

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"- John Maynard Keynes
standupguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 09:29 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,763
DOW 20,000 and my Mississippi State Bulldogs go undefeated in all sports.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 09:58 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,770
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
Can you list some of these times? The great depression USA, 1929; Japan 1989. Are there any others?

Ha
What is referred to as the "Great Train Wreck of 1890 - 1896" at the time the price declines were mostly for farms, but that was the primary residence at the time.

The decline in land values following the Civil war in 1867 leading to the Great Long Depression of 1870.
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2009, 10:04 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,567
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
What is referred to as the "Great Train Wreck of 1890 - 1896" at the time the price declines were mostly for farms, but that was the primary residence at the time.

The decline in land values following the Civil war in 1867 leading to the Great Long Depression of 1870.
I respect your judgment as you give reasons for your expectations, and you have been right a lot more than wrong on this board. Still, I wonder if these temporally or geographically remote events shine much light on our modern situation?

Ha
__________________

__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Predictions TromboneAl Other topics 41 04-01-2011 12:04 PM
Predictions for 2008? SecondCor521 FIRE and Money 17 01-01-2008 03:20 PM
2006 Predictions Eagle43 Other topics 9 12-29-2006 06:25 PM
Predictions - SS reform Beststash FIRE and Money 107 03-17-2005 11:22 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:37 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.