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2011 Best & Worst Financial Predictions
01-13-2012, 09:13 AM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
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2011 Best & Worst Financial Predictions
Thought this was amusing, with a batting average probably on par with most predictions (not that good). Most don't follow up to report on their results like this.
I have to admit I fell for the Meredith Whitney muni prediction (correct, but so wildly exaggerated in scope as to be essentially false) reminds me why humility is a virtue.
Last year's best and worst financial predictions - CBS News
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01-13-2012, 10:08 AM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Denver
Posts: 3,505
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Nice read, but hardly surprising given the track records of forecasters.
Thanks for posting.
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01-13-2012, 10:17 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
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Perhaps we should all bookmark this thread and reference it each time we get another post from someone quoting an expert who "knows" what's about to happen...
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Numbers is hard
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01-13-2012, 10:23 AM
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#4
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,585
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John Kenneth Galbraith said
Quote:
There are two types of forecasters; those that don't know, and those that don't know they don't know.
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01-13-2012, 10:52 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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I don't forecast. Well......I do feel comfortable in forecasting a nap for this afternoon.
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Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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01-13-2012, 10:52 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,594
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Reminds me of the call I took from a fidelity rep - "you need exposure to Asia and China".
Good thing I ignored him.
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FIRE'd since 2005
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01-13-2012, 11:09 AM
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#7
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2005
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I am reminded of the saying, Economist successfully called 11 of the last 5 recessions.
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01-13-2012, 11:16 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,691
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
I have to admit I fell for the Meredith Whitney muni prediction (correct, but so wildly exaggerated in scope as to be essentially false) reminds me why humility is a virtue.
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I did the opposite, whenever some expert recommends something, I bet against them. Bought VG HY muni fund after that, good move. But did miss out on the continued gold uptick...maybe made that move too early?
TJ
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