Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
2015 stock market
Old 06-05-2015, 11:31 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Texas
Posts: 164
2015 stock market

Just wondering what the rooms thought of how the market has been reacting ?
Are you moving in or out or holding

Fear of a correction, I not sure what to think. I am holding firm and still buying bi monthly . Thought has crossed my mind to move to cash



Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________

__________________
Terryjm51 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-05-2015, 11:55 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
Investing since 1966 I finally figured out it doesn't even pay to look anymore - full auto with those trusty non emotional computers doing my asset allocation/rebalancing via Target Retirement aka a life cycle fund.

heh heh heh - ok ok so I watch the Saints in season and have a few good stocks. Hope springs a turtle. It does help keep the male hormones more manageable.
__________________

__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-05-2015, 11:55 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Nobody knows what will happen next.

But we do know that over the last 30 years, people investing in equities have have underperformed broad equity indexes by about 4% per year. That's because the get scared and because they get greedy. On average, they'd do much better to just stick with their fixed allocation and ride things out.
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 03:03 AM   #4
Full time employment: Posting here.
gcgang's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 928
I'm never sure what the market is going to do. All I can do is try to figure out what is best for my situation. Yours is probably different.

If you are 10+ years away from retirement, if I were you, I'd just keep on plowing the money in to stocks, even knowing there is likely to be big downturns.

For me, I've been retired 2+ years, I've got way more money now than when I retired, I'm not going to be earning more, I don't need to increase my spending, so I've been reducing equities resulting in the lowest exposure to equities I've ever had, and the most cash ever. Not because the market is so overvalued, but because I don't need to take as much risk to be able to achieve my goals.

If the market takes a tumble, I'm in a good position to add to stock holdings. If it keeps going up, I will be able to continue to live very comfortably.






Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is. YB
gcgang is offline   Reply With Quote
2015 stock market
Old 06-06-2015, 04:50 AM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
wingfooted's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Oregon - Dry Side
Posts: 218
2015 stock market

100% equities and sleeping at night. Overweight AAPL and energy names and short out of the money calls on same. Up 20.5% YTD measured on time weighted return inclusive of dividends, margin interest and brokerage fees but exclusive of deposits / withdrawals.

Lots of liquidity sloshing about, interest rates are low and any dip has proved to be a buying opportunity thus far.
__________________
wingfooted is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 07:24 AM   #6
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 882
Mostly re-balancing back to my target equity when I get above the band. I'm sure we will see a drop, just don't know when or how much. 30-40% would not be unusual; 40-50% could happen.
__________________
jebmke is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 07:45 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RonBoyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 5,280
Five Bedrock Principles for Investors

See particularly #2:

Quote:
The biggest risk investors face isnít a recession, a bear market, the Federal Reserve or their least favorite political party.

It is their own emotions and biases, and the destructive behaviors they cause.
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
RonBoyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 07:49 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,125
Quote:
Originally Posted by RonBoyd View Post

See particularly #2:
+1
Attached Images
File Type: png pogo.png (26.8 KB, 513 views)
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 08:08 AM   #9
Confused about dryer sheets
Jsailor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Houston
Posts: 7
Approx half of my invested funds are invested directly in high dividend (avg. about 5%) paying stocks and preferreds.

This is how I look at it..... While my dollar amount invested value has gone down this month, the dividend amount remains the same (and consequently the yield goes up). The result is, I am not selling and continuing to buy thru the dividend reinvestment plans.

The rest of my invested funds are in Target Funds and they are doing fine. So, I am hands off (for now).






Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
Jsailor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 08:47 AM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by wingfooted View Post
100% equities and sleeping at night. Overweight AAPL and energy names and short out of the money calls on same. Up 20.5% YTD measured on time weighted return inclusive of dividends, margin interest and brokerage fees but exclusive of deposits / withdrawals.

Lots of liquidity sloshing about, interest rates are low and any dip has proved to be a buying opportunity thus far.
I would sleep well too with that kind of return.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 09:07 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Mulligan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 7,382
Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post
Nobody knows what will happen next.

But we do know that over the last 30 years, people investing in equities have have underperformed broad equity indexes by about 4% per year. That's because the get scared and because they get greedy. On average, they'd do much better to just stick with their fixed allocation and ride things out.

Appears you are writing about me. Though I own a lot of preferred stocks, my "common stocks" are all in the 2 basic Vanguard Total and International. Knowing I will get market average is all I need to know and I rarely check movement of the funds. If I had individual issues I would check daily, antsy about any "news" and buy and sell at wrong times.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
__________________
Mulligan is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 10:14 AM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 197
I am in the Market at my ideal Asset Allocation. In keeping with my Engineering background, I do like to keep an eye on the Chart of the SP500 with a 50-day Moving Average and a 200-day MA overlay. The SP500 just crossed under the 50-day MA this week. While that in itself doesn't signal a panic Selloff, it does bear increased attention. If it next crosses under the 200-day MA (currently at 2042) then I think I'll take some profit off the table. My entry points on this current runup are so low that I'm not worried about a minor correction. I would however, like to avoid a major selloff like I did in 2000 and in 2008.
__________________
It's a small mind that can only think of one way to spell a word.
FiveDriver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 10:43 AM   #13
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,925
I am no investment guru, but honestly I don't see anything but the usual summer doldrums. Doesn't this happen more often than not, during the summer? Seems to me it does, anyway, IIRC.

That said, I took some money out of the market in May to pay for my dream house in cash at the end of this month. At the time, I wasn't exactly sure when closing on the house would be so it wasn't exactly market timing - - but the timing did turn out to be slightly fortuitous.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 10:57 AM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,450
Quote:
Originally Posted by Terryjm51 View Post
Just wondering what the rooms thought of how the market has been reacting ?
Are you moving in or out or holding

Fear of a correction, I not sure what to think. I am holding firm and still buying bi monthly . Thought has crossed my mind to move to cash....
Even after this week my equities have generated an 11.3% annualized return YTD, 5.6% for the last 12 months and 6.8% for last year. I think a correction is possible but am ahead of the game YTD so it would just be clawing back some paper gains. I'm staying pat.

Besides, if you go to cash now, how will you know when to get back in?
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 01:25 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 2,483
I'm now at the point in life where I'm convinced that my DW and I will not outlive our money even if we just took our cash and buried it in a 55 gallon drum. (unless there is a total economic collapse in the next 20 years or unless I invest in "something" and lose it) Most of our money is in fixed interest (better than a 55 gallon drum, I guess) and honestly we don't need that.

I still dabble in the market with some extra cash but it's just for the fun of it now.
__________________
Car-Guy is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2015, 01:48 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Mulligan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 7,382
Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
I'm now at the point in life where I'm convinced that my DW and I will not outlive our money even if we just took our cash and buried it in a 55 gallon drum. (unless there is a total economic collapse in the next 20 years or unless I invest in "something" and lose it) Most of our money is in fixed interest (better than a 55 gallon drum, I guess) and honestly we don't need that.

I still dabble in the market with some extra cash but it's just for the fun of it now.

I can think of many worse things a person in your situation could do with their money and few smarter. Though I bet if dtbach's annuity salesman friend (different thread) could get ahold of you he would not hold my same viewpoint.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
__________________
Mulligan is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2015, 08:27 AM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 2,483
Before I retired, and for a short time afterwards, I did consider putting some of my money in immediate annuities but after doing a lot of reading, including this forum, I decided against them. I can understand the appeal of annuities, and it may be right for some people in certain situations, but they are not for me.
__________________
Car-Guy is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2015, 03:01 PM   #18
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Texas
Posts: 164
P4b
Thanks yes I agree if your in cash when do get back in. There's a gentleman at work that has been in cash for 1 1/2 he still in fear and has missed some very good gains.
I was looking to see what you experts have done and do!
I learn something every time I open this app


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
Terryjm51 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-07-2015, 08:34 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,450
I think most of us just rebalance occasionally. That's all there is to it. Over the long run you tend to sell high and buy low. Nothing wrong with that.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-08-2015, 03:15 AM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,414
actually looking at the 30 year cycles of every worst time frame that kitces studiied rebalancing hurt not helped the returns with this 60/40 mix .

but not rebalancing would have created a rising glide path for stocks raising allocations. .

15 year returns were no better.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
30 year

1907 stocks returned 7.77% -- bonds 4.250-- rebalanced portfolio 7.02- - inflation 1.64--

1929 stocks 8.19% - - bonds 1.74%-- rebalanced portfolio 6.28-- inflation 1.69--

1937 stocks 10.12 - - bonds 2.13 - rebalanced portfolio -- 7.24 inflation-- 2.82

1966 stocks 10.23 - -bonds 7.85 -- rebalanced portfolio 9.56- - inflation 5.38

for comparison the 140 year average's were:

stocks 8.39--bonds 2.85%--rebalanced portfolio 6.17% inflation 2.23%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

15 year
1907--- stocks minus 1.47%---- bonds minus .39%-- rebalanced minus .70% ---inflation 1.64%

1929---stocks 1.07%---bonds 1.79%---rebalanced 2.29%--inflation 1.69%

1937---stocks -- 3.45%---bonds minus 3.07%-- rebalanced 1.23%--inflation 2.82%

1966-stocks minus .13%--bonds 1.08%--rebalanced .64%-- inflation 5.38%
__________________

__________________
mathjak107 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Are stock/stock funds still attractive? keegs Stock Picking and Market Strategy 29 08-27-2014 01:08 PM
Stock Car Stock Index Fund mickeyd FIRE and Money 3 08-17-2012 05:28 PM
Hmm, stock market or Money Market/CD? Moneycoming Stock Picking and Market Strategy 4 08-14-2007 07:41 PM
Stock Market from 1966-1982 - Nowhere???? Cut-Throat FIRE and Money 8 10-30-2003 05:19 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:58 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.