2016 YTD investment performance thread

[MrLoco]

I am making no changes to 100% equities. I will probably add to SCHD and mid cap/small cap index as a year goes on.

I have no idea what to expect this year so I expect nothing.

Hey eta. Just a couple of questions if you don't mind and just in generalities (is that a word?) as I am curious how you generate an income stream being 100% invested in equities? Are you still working? If retired.....do you have a pension, SS, income from rentals and then dividends from your equities to satisfy your expenses? OR perhaps you use a SWR of x% of your equities? Have you always been 100% equities?

I ask because I am down $82,000 in my portfolio for YTD 2016 ( first 4 days of the new year!!!) and my AA is 50/50 equities/fixed income. I can't imagine the swings being 100% equities but good for you!

 

[NW-Bound]

Hey eta. Just a couple of questions if you don't mind and just in generalities (is that a word?) as I am curious how you generate an income stream being 100% invested in equities? Are you still working? If retired.....do you have a pension, SS, income from rentals and then dividends from your equities to satisfy your expenses? OR perhaps you use a SWR of x% of your equities? Have you always been 100% equities?

I ask because I am down $82,000 in my portfolio for YTD 2016 ( first 4 days of the new year!!!) and my AA is 50/50 equities/fixed income. I can't imagine the swings being 100% equities but good for you!

Yes, when you are down the cost of a new Honda Accord each trading day, it does not take long for it to add up to real money.

By the way, eta2020 means "Estimated Time of Arrival = 2020", I believe. So he still has fresh money to put in the stock market, while people like me can only rebalance from whatever cash we have on hand.

 

[Lsbcal]

Yes, when you are down the cost of a new Honda Accord each trading day, it does not take long for it to add up to real money.

By the way, eta2020 means "Estimated Time of Arrival = 2020", I believe. So he still has fresh money to put in the stock market, while people like me can only rebalance from whatever cash we have on hand.

That is kind of dangerous thinking ... putting your losses in $ terms. I'd prefer %'s to ease the pain.

Why not look on the bright side? Like your best equity fund this week. Mine was VINEX (small cap international) with a stunnning performance of -5.1%.

I remember back in the 1990's when a guy who had a ton of company stock mentioned that on a bad day he lost one Mercedes. Always wonder how he did in the tech meltdown ... lost a lot of Mercedes if he didn't diversify.

 

[NW-Bound]

OK, if you prefer to talk percentage, from the top of the market in March 2000 to the bottom of Oct 2002, I lost 44% of my investable assets. That was a small fleet of Mercedes. Oop, I am not supposed to think like that.

Anyway, at the same time, my father was entering the final phase of his terminal disease. And the small company I co-founded with a couple of friends was going belly up, and I had been working just to pay rent, utility, and insurance.

So, what did I do? I took off to Europe to enjoy the Carnival in Nice, and also in Venice. I needed to clear the cobweb off my mind, before I came back to figure out what to do with the rest of my life.

 

[ejman]

OK, if you prefer to talk percentage, from the top of the market in March 2000 to the bottom of Oct 2002, I lost 44% of my investable assets. That was a small fleet of Mercedes. Oop, I am not supposed to think like that.

Anyway, at the same time, my father was entering the final phase of his terminal disease. And the small company I co-founded with a couple of friends was going belly up, and I had been working just to pay rent, utility, and insurance.

So, what did I do? I took off to Europe to enjoy the Carnival in Nice, and also in Venice. I needed to clear the cobweb off my mind, before I came back to figure out what to do with the rest of my life.

Wow, that took some cojones. Glad to read you came out OK on the other side.

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes, by jettisoning the tech stocks and buying material and natural resource stocks, I recover the 2000 high watermark in Oct 2004. But I was never 100% in any stock or sector, and also always held 20% cash.

By Oct 2005, I was confident enough in my new consulting work and the market gain that I bought the 2nd home.

 

[bmcgonig]

Yes, by jettisoning the tech stocks and buying material and natural resource stocks, I recover the 2000 high watermark in Oct 2004. But I was never 100% in any stock or sector, and also always held 20% cash.

By Oct 2005, I was confident enough in my new consulting work and the market gain that I bought the 2nd home.

I saw one pundit today suggesting you repeat that, i.e., sell tech again and buying material and resource. Have you thought about it?


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[audreyh1]

-3.27% YTD - in just one week. OUCH!!!!

That is a really depressing start to the week. And that was after my annual withdrawal, so arrrrgh!!!

That is almost as much as my withdrawal. If I didn't know any better, I'd think I doubled down on my withdrawal!

 

[Lsbcal]

That is quiet right.... Arrggh!

About 9% off the recent highs and very near the sharp September lows. Bottom fishing delight? Let's see, if I put 5% into SPY and it goes up 5%, l'll have an extra 0.25%. Not all that exciting. Except if I put it in $ terms it might tempt me. Could then brag to DW and take her out somewhere.

 

[NW-Bound]

A gain of 0.25% would pay for a nice vacation, no?

Oh, but then one should remember that 5% loss that he has not recovered. Oops.

 

[Lsbcal]

Yes, but I was thinking of doing this last week. Keep proving to myself I don't have a clue.

 

[pb4uski]

-3.27% YTD - in just one week. OUCH!!!!

That is a really depressing start to the week. And that was after my annual withdrawal, so arrrrgh!!!

That is almost as much as my withdrawal. If I didn't know any better, I'd think I doubled down on my withdrawal!

I feel your pain. I am down 3.24% YTD... stocks down about 5% and fixed income slightly higher.

 

[sengsational]

I'm not going to look...reading this thread's values tells me the news won't be good. A little better since my course change in October, but I'm sure still bad. How have peoples' international equities holding up?

 

[NW-Bound]

... How have peoples' international equities holding up?

Badly. International MFs and ETFs are down -6% to -8%.

 

[Fermion]

While all of our main accounts are down, the junk bonds I have which pay 67.5% are actually up this week.

They were 18.5% of par and today are 20% of par. 12.5% coupon.

They pay 1.2% a week, which is just slightly less than Vinny at the local pawn store charges.

 

[NW-Bound]

I saw one pundit today suggesting you repeat that, i.e., sell tech again and buying material and resource. Have you thought about it?

Back in the early 2000s, China's modernization and buildup, and even the housing bubble in the US and elsewhere in the world, caused a shortage of copper, steel, aluminum, metallurgical coal, etc..., nearly every natural resource. There were high prices of potash, nitrogen fertilizer, oil, even Portland cement. There was a shortage of ships to haul raw material.

Now we are awash in materials because new mines have been opened, and new plants built to the point of overproducing everything. I don't know when demand will grow to use up the supply that the world now has.

 

[audreyh1]

What about all that tainted Chinese sheetrock? Building materials, including timber, were really tight even through 2010.

 

[NW-Bound]

What about bad Chinese sheetrock? Take them out of circulation, and we still have plenty of sheetrock because less construction is needed with the existing supply of housing.

And copper was up to $4/lb in 2012 to match the previous price in 2008 before the Great Recession, but it is now down to $2/lb. They keep finding new mines.

People are greedy or maybe just hungry. Whenever something goes up in price, they flock there and overproduce, driving the price down. That happens also in high tech. Huge TVs, computers, even smart phones are so cheap I could not believe the prices. How can anyone make any money?

 

[sengsational]

Badly. International MFs and ETFs are down -6% to -8%.

So much for that hope. Just like last time....nothing goes up. At least gold is up 6% or so.

 

[eytonxav]

Down 2.14%, still sitting on some cash, but expecting lower levels before any nibbling takes place.

 

[ejman]

According to Quicken down 2.62% YTD. Annualized it's down 66.11%. Now that number gets my attention!

 

[roninop]

- 4.6% from the market peak in 2015. Our portfolio was 56% equity now down to 54% according to the VG analyzer. - 2.65% YTD. We have about 3 years worth of cash.

 

[John Galt III]

Down 0.58 % as of eob 1/8/2016. Portfolio is 80% Stable Value, 15% Stock Index Funds, 5% Bond Funds. BTW my PCRIX commodities investment has been getting hammered for a few years now.

 

[Gotadimple]

In the spirit of establishing what I hope will be the lowest benchmark, according to Quicken my 2016 YTD annualized return is -48.3%...

You win! Don't spend it all in one place.


- Rita

 

[kneehigh]

-Got out of vanguard index completely when DOW was @ 16,666 last year and made a measly 3.5% for the year. So far, it's at +.08% and just went into index with 10% Friday. If DOW goes down another 10%, I'm going in with additional 10%. If DOW goes down 30% to 40% from its peak, I'm diving in head first. Someone said, "be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."