2016 YTD investment performance thread

[PhrugalPhan]

My retirement & brokerage amounts started the year near $540k and ended the year at $670k. I contributed/added $45k, so I had $85k growth for the year. I know its far from exact, but 85/540 = 15.7%. Figure some of the growth can be attributed to growth on the $45k, so my return for the year is probably in the 13-14% range. I'm in ~95% stocks (which I think makes sense with a solid pension), so that probably has something to do with it. If I knew I could do that every year I might retire today.

[Totoro]

Final 'verdict' 2016:

• Index tracker +16%
• Individual +30%

Fully expecting negative returns going forward.

[KMyer]

I was up 16.2% overall across all accounts. Up 9.5% for the $ invested in mutual funds via my 401(k) plan. The $ invested in individual stocks via my taxable accounts generated a return of 19.95%. 2016 was a much better year than 2015. However, it sure didn't start out that way.

[tinlizzy]

My IRA and taxable acct at Vangaurd (Int'l and TSM) is 18.05%. 401k is 18.63% (mostly small/mid cap - some S&P 500). My employee stock is 19%.

Kind of shocking. It didn't seem like my gains were that high.

[Danmar]

Quote:

Originally Posted by braumeister Yes, I appreciate it too. Many were in the same general range as me, so I feel pretty good about that. I greatly admire those who did much better, but I suspect they may have spent more time managing their portfolio than I did. Even if they didn't, I still admire them!

Agree. Problem is outperformance almost always means less diversification. My 27% return resulted from a very undiversified portfolio of individual stocks. In my case, I did not trade at all in 2016. Although I have outperformed the Canadian index over the last 10 years, the S&P 500 has done even better I think.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by braumeister ... I greatly admire those who did much better, but I suspect they may have spent more time managing their portfolio than I did...

There's always that element of luck. One needs to look over a longer period to tell. I beat the market some years, only to trail it the next years. I learn something in the process, and keep telling myself that I will apply lessons learned. Will see. It makes life more interesting, when I am not traveling that is.

[ikubak]

+10.81

80/20

[target2019]

Last calculation for 2016 - IRR for the family bank discussed here: Multi-Generational Investing & Finance

IRR - 18.02%

[redduck]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski So how did your whole portfolio do?

OK, so after pb4uski's forceful post directly directed at me causing me to feel the heat, I decided to spend some time figuring out how my whole portfolio did.

The Dividend Stock portfolio was up 10.69% BUT, THAT'S NOT CORRECT: SEE FOLLOWING POST:

My entire portfolio was up 10.05%

It looks like I'm at 48% equities; 46% bonds and the rest is made up of other stuff.

If the numbers don't look right, blame pb4uski, I don't do well when pressured.

[redduck]

Quote:

Originally Posted by redduck The Dividend Stock portfolio was up 10.69% My entire portfolio was up 10.05%

Whoops, let's make that 7.87% for my entire portfolio.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by wingfooted Based on 2016 full year time weighted average, inclusive of dividends, margin interest and all brokerage fees and excluding the impact of any additions or withdrawals from principal, I was up 10.4% versus 11.9% for the benchmark SP 500. So I failed to 'beat the market' this year. Big reason was a very weak start to the 2016 where at one point I was down 18%. I spent the rest of the year trying to catch up but didn't quite make it. Biggest loser was trying to play mini arbitrage on the failed HAL - BHI merger. Biggest winners were the energy names - APC, PXD and CXO - which rallied strongly in the second half. 2017 is another year - starting out well, lets see how it goes.

Early in 2016, you lost about 2.5x the drop of the S&P. That was surely stressful.

.

[steelyman]

Quote:

Originally Posted by redduck Whoops, let's make that 7.87% for my entire portfolio.

Not to worry. There's always that One Little Indian who won't post the YTD results for their own portfolio!

[kcowan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by steelyman Not to worry. There's always that One Little Indian who won't post the YTD results for their own portfolio!

I am worried abotu the one who withdraw their SWR every year and put it aside if they do not spend it. After a few years they have quite a stash that is not part of their "portfolio" so I think this threads are not be be believed. I have 20% in cash which pulls down my performance this year. If I exclude that, my returns go up.

So what are we proving?

[target2019]

I am proving that I can make tasty retirement pudding.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcowan I am worried abotu the one who withdraw their SWR every year and put it aside if they do not spend it. After a few years they have quite a stash that is not part of their "portfolio" so I think this threads are not be be believed. I have 20% in cash which pulls down my performance this year. If I exclude that, my returns go up. So what are we proving?

Good point.

As I quoted earlier, my total return was 8.9%.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound So, all the numbers are in. My return for 2016 is ... drum roll please... 8.9%. At 59% stock, 36% cash, and a bitty bit of bond, I trailed Wellington which is at 11.2%. If I held 60% of VTI (total stock) which returns 11.6% and 40% of BND (total bond) at 2.5% and never rebalanced during the year, I would have 8%. So, I am not doing too badly. PS. Note how Wellington, even though it is only 60% in stock, matches the total stock index. Good stock picking or luck? It is the perennial question.

If I excluded my big pile of cash which earned 2%, my return would have been 12.8%. Now, most of my equities at this point are in individual stocks. If I further excluded the MFs, I could boast of even higher returns.

But I know the real growth of my money is not that high, and there is no point in telling myself I have all this growth that I do not have, or fooling myself that I am that smart. For if I were smart and were certain to make that much money, why would I keep any uninvested cash? If I were so sure I was smarter than the MF managers, why did I keep any money with them?

[nvestysly]

Quote:

Originally Posted by nvestysly I don't know if I can completely trust the reporting from Fidelity but according to them we averaged 14.6% across the variety of accounts we have with them. The allocation is 91% stock / 1% bonds / 8% cash. Every stock/ETF, except one (BRK_B) pays a dividend. on edit: I see Fidelity is only reporting through the end of November. I guess it will be a few days into 2017 before the true 2016 total is available. The allocation will change a bit too. I think we ended up with closer to 10% cash. I will report back when updated information is available.

Here's the latest from Fidelity for January - December 2016:

17.13%

We have very little bonds although we do have a number of utilities which act like bonds in some ways. For 2016 we had more cash (~10%) than normal - we usually have less than 5% cash since we essentially live on the dividends. Fidelity has the final allocation as follows.

[RobbieB]

Had my annual review (over the phone) with my FA yesterday and all looks good. We came out of 2016 with 12.8% including his fees. Not bad.

My muni bonds and muni bond funds (not with him) were completely flat. The price decline matched the interest generated. Of course my cash was flat too, under 1%.

So the weighted total over all was 9.7% which makes me quite pleased.

[Cobra9777]

I'm a bit late closing the books on 2016.

Portfolio grew 10.6%. I get same answer using XIRR, moneychimp calculator, and using M* total return for each ETF weighted on current value. This latter method enables more effective analysis vs anything done at the total portfolio level.

Benchmark is a 60/40 mix of VTI/BND, which was up 8.7%. Our equity side was up 13.1%, just slightly higher than VTI at 12.8%. We have some high-dividend ETFs which did quite well (VYM and others, up 17.0% collectively). But this was largely offset by our international ETFs, which were up only 6.2% collectively. The bond side was up 5.8% vs BND at 2.5%. This results from 2 corporate bond ETFs: LQD (investment grade, up 6.2%) and HYG (high yield, up 13.4%).

The overall 10.6% figure excludes cash and rental real estate. Cash allocation is 3%, earning 1% at Ally. Rentals are 16% of the portfolio. They generated 6% after-tax cashflow and, according to Zillow, increased 22%. We're up 13.0% if I include all that.

Nice year overall. I'm quite happy with it.

[RetireAge50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieB Had my annual review (over the phone) with my FA yesterday and all looks good. We came out of 2016 with 12.8% including his fees. Not bad. My muni bonds and muni bond funds (not with him) were completely flat. The price decline matched the interest generated. Of course my cash was flat too, under 1%. So the weighted total over all was 9.7% which makes me quite pleased.

Cool. Thanks for your encouragement this year to all of us to spend more dough.

Just curious, does your 12.8% you were quoted from the advisor jive with a quick and dirty calc like (ending balance - starting balance + withdrawals)/starting balance.

[RobbieB]

Yup, just checked again, no "hokus-pokus" in the numbers. I didn't withdraw anything, but his fees are included.

Yeah, blow some dough, have some fun! I'm retired for 2 and a half years now and I got more dough than when I started.

Gotta blow more dough -