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Old 03-02-2016, 05:33 PM   #121
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This thread will be helpful if you share your strategy, both what is working and what is not working.
For the few here that reported at the end of January and the end of February, I've plotted the results. So, the month of February saw improvements in the range of .35% to .74% with the larger improvements seen by those that got hit the hardest in January. This is expected and it looks like we have some consistent reporting, for the most part. There is one outlying point not fitting the expectation. It's on the good side, so maybe that strategy should be examined

I could name names, but I figured it's more interesting to get comments (and see if you can spot yourself) first.
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Old 03-02-2016, 05:39 PM   #122
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So, only one of us has any hope of running a hedge fund?
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Old 03-02-2016, 05:59 PM   #123
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It would depend on when they were purchased. Several funds are up 8% to 13% off of their lows for 2016.
Sure, but if they weren't held from 1/1/16, it would have been good to so state, especially since the allocation was shown.
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Old 03-02-2016, 06:22 PM   #124
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So, only one of us has any hope of running a hedge fund?

I think Bill Ackman the past year or so would have been in better shape focusing on janitorial duties and appointed any of us to have ran his hedge fund. The results would have been better for the past year anyways.
As of today, I am up 1%. Just trying to leg out some infield hits.


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Old 03-02-2016, 06:29 PM   #125
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...These threads are always suspicious because many folks do not use the same math that anybody else uses. They also do not include the 50% of their portfolio sitting in a money market (That's not my portfolio "portfolio"!)...
Since these threads are so popular, it might be beneficial if there were some agreement on the math. If some of you math folks could agree on a formula (?) that isn't more sophisticated than long division (for my sake), these threads might have some value.
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Old 03-02-2016, 06:34 PM   #126
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OK, so Mulligan made me look. Bill Ackman did not do well in 2015 at all, down -20.5%.

However, a Web site noted that:

"From 2004 to the end of 2014, Pershing Square generated a total return of 692% net of fees, beating the S&P 500's 132% return."

Will his investors be patient and give him another year?
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Old 03-02-2016, 06:51 PM   #127
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Given those equity funds that you are holding, its amazing you could be up.
Just gave a summary based on my VG performance report ytd. The full story is I moved some funds to cash from Morgan Stanley to Vanguard at the end of last year. Bought additional stock funds during the recent dips in January and February. Every little bit helped.
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Old 03-02-2016, 07:00 PM   #128
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OK, so Mulligan made me look. Bill Ackman did not do well in 2015 at all, down -20.5%.

However, a Web site noted that:

"From 2004 to the end of 2014, Pershing Square generated a total return of 692% net of fees, beating the S&P 500's 132% return."

Will his investors be patient and give him another year?

As of February 11th, he was down an additional 18% after that 20% bush whacking last year... The market is up a bit lately so hopefully he has cut that down. I read Valeant has given him all sorts of troubles. I would guess he gets another year and then the "what have you done lately for me" kicks in. Big money boys probably get antsy when they get continual 20% haircuts. Heck I am a nobody peon and don't like them. That is why I own utility preferreds.



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Old 03-02-2016, 07:12 PM   #129
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Down 1.5% as of yesterday on a 50/50 AA

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Old 03-02-2016, 07:14 PM   #130
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So, if you came on board with Ackman way back in 2004, you still have a gain of 6.92*(1-0.205)*(1-0.18) = 4.51 or 351% gain. If you jumped on board late, it's not so good. But 18% YTD hurts like crazy, no matter how one slices it.
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Old 03-02-2016, 07:20 PM   #131
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So, if you came on board with Ackman way back in 2004, you still have a gain of 6.92*(1-0.205)*(1-0.18) = 4.51 or 351% gain. If you jumped on board late, it's not so good. But 18% YTD hurts like crazy, no matter how one slices it.

And as you know, NW, everybody loves to kick you while you are down. Fortune Magazine had a recent article titled "3 Reasons Why You Are a Better Investor Than Bill Ackman".

http://fortune.com/2016/02/11/bill-a...stment-record/




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Old 03-02-2016, 07:25 PM   #132
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Since these threads are so popular, it might be beneficial if there were some agreement on the math. If some of you math folks could agree on a formula (?) that isn't more sophisticated than long division (for my sake), these threads might have some value.
The only thing I will agree upon is to use the XIRR() algorithm with date range for 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2016. Even earlier in the year than 12/31, one needs to use 12/31/2016 for the end date or one might get an "annualized" return. That is, if you are up 10% in January, it might give 120% without the 12/31 end date.

This algorithm in available in spreadsheets, Quicken, and MS Money. It is also what fund companies use.
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Old 03-02-2016, 07:43 PM   #133
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Similar to corporate burnout. I'm closer to 55/45 stocks and down 1.5 as of yesterday.
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Old 03-02-2016, 07:48 PM   #134
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I remove money from my account (annual withdrawal) right at the end of the year, and don't make any additions during the year.

So I am simply comparing the current value of my portfolio with the value at the start of the year, to get the YTD investment performance. (Current Value/Start Value - 1) x 100 to get percent.

For folks adding or removing money between 1/1 and current date it's a little more tricky.

This is tracked in a spreadsheet I update weekly (or monthly) to review my allocation and distributions paid out year to date. So it's easy for me to give YTD performance.
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Old 03-02-2016, 08:05 PM   #135
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2 ways to calculate performance:

($now + $rem)/($start + $added)

($now - $start - $added)/$start

Someone posted that earlier. Not sure about the second formula.

I watch over a brokerage of stocks and bond funds for in-laws. Approximately 25% bonds:

Current Yield 3.91% (Wellington (VWENX) 2.78%)

Performance Gain YTD 2.96% (Wellington (VWENX) -3.01%)

That is calculated through Mar 2, so there are a couple of extra "gooder" days thrown in.
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Old 03-02-2016, 08:15 PM   #136
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Performance of
VWENX (Wellington) through 2/29/2016 is -3.01%
Through yesterday: -1.62%
Through today: -1.18%
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Old 03-02-2016, 08:30 PM   #137
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With short intervals like a year and small withdrawals/deposits, simple formulas should work well enough and one does not really need the XIRR to compute returns.

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Indeed. As of market close yesterday, 3/1/2016, I was down only -1.5% YTD.

Today is not shabby. My stocks are up 0.85%, against the S&P of 0.41%. Foreign stocks, not just EM, do well. Mining sector jumps big. Still have to see what my MFs report.
So, my MF results are in. They are up 0.51%, also beating the S&P due to international stocks again. It's about time. Altogether when combined with 33% cash and 6% bond, portfolio up 0.48% today, vs Wellington at 0.44%.
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Old 03-02-2016, 08:33 PM   #138
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...vs Wellington at 0.44%.
But Wellington is now -1.18% YTD through March 2 and -1.62% through yesterday March 1.
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Old 03-02-2016, 08:36 PM   #139
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=GOOGLEFINANCE("VWENX", "returnytd")/100

-3.01% just calculated at 9:36PM 3/2/2016
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Old 03-02-2016, 08:37 PM   #140
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The only thing I will agree upon is to use the XIRR() algorithm with date range for 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2016. Even earlier in the year than 12/31, one needs to use 12/31/2016 for the end date or one might get an "annualized" return. That is, if you are up 10% in January, it might give 120% without the 12/31 end date.

This algorithm in available in spreadsheets, Quicken, and MS Money. It is also what fund companies use.
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2 ways to calculate performance:

($now + $rem)/($start + $added)

($now - $start - $added)/$start

...
I favor the simpler formulas over the XIRR. While I concede the XIRR is theoretically preferable, for this use it is not practical. For one, my guess is that half or more of the people here would have trouble with the formula and the setup. Second and more importantly, it is a PITA to get the cash flows for the XIRR calculation, especially if you are in the accumulation phase or have multiple accounts.

Besides, who made LOL! king?
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