2016 YTD investment performance thread

[NW-Bound]

OK, so Mulligan made me look. Bill Ackman did not do well in 2015 at all, down -20.5%.

However, a Web site noted that:

"From 2004 to the end of 2014, Pershing Square generated a total return of 692% net of fees, beating the S&P 500's 132% return."

Will his investors be patient and give him another year?

 

[wyecrabber1]

Given those equity funds that you are holding, its amazing you could be up.

Just gave a summary based on my VG performance report ytd. The full story is I moved some funds to cash from Morgan Stanley to Vanguard at the end of last year. Bought additional stock funds during the recent dips in January and February. Every little bit helped.

 

[Mulligan]

OK, so Mulligan made me look. Bill Ackman did not do well in 2015 at all, down -20.5%.

However, a Web site noted that:

"From 2004 to the end of 2014, Pershing Square generated a total return of 692% net of fees, beating the S&P 500's 132% return."

Will his investors be patient and give him another year?

As of February 11th, he was down an additional 18% after that 20% bush whacking last year... The market is up a bit lately so hopefully he has cut that down. I read Valeant has given him all sorts of troubles. I would guess he gets another year and then the "what have you done lately for me" kicks in. Big money boys probably get antsy when they get continual 20% haircuts. Heck I am a nobody peon and don't like them. That is why I own utility preferreds.



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[Corporateburnout]

Down 1.5% as of yesterday on a 50/50 AA

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[NW-Bound]

So, if you came on board with Ackman way back in 2004, you still have a gain of 6.92*(1-0.205)*(1-0.18) = 4.51 or 351% gain. If you jumped on board late, it's not so good. But 18% YTD hurts like crazy, no matter how one slices it.

 

[Mulligan]

So, if you came on board with Ackman way back in 2004, you still have a gain of 6.92*(1-0.205)*(1-0.18) = 4.51 or 351% gain. If you jumped on board late, it's not so good. But 18% YTD hurts like crazy, no matter how one slices it.

And as you know, NW, everybody loves to kick you while you are down. Fortune Magazine had a recent article titled "3 Reasons Why You Are a Better Investor Than Bill Ackman".

http://fortune.com/2016/02/11/bill-ackman-investment-record/




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[LOL!]

Since these threads are so popular, it might be beneficial if there were some agreement on the math. If some of you math folks could agree on a formula (?) that isn't more sophisticated than long division (for my sake), these threads might have some value.

The only thing I will agree upon is to use the XIRR() algorithm with date range for 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2016. Even earlier in the year than 12/31, one needs to use 12/31/2016 for the end date or one might get an "annualized" return. That is, if you are up 10% in January, it might give 120% without the 12/31 end date.

This algorithm in available in spreadsheets, Quicken, and MS Money. It is also what fund companies use.

 

[KCGeezer]

Similar to corporate burnout. I'm closer to 55/45 stocks and down 1.5 as of yesterday.

 

[audreyh1]

I remove money from my account (annual withdrawal) right at the end of the year, and don't make any additions during the year.

So I am simply comparing the current value of my portfolio with the value at the start of the year, to get the YTD investment performance. (Current Value/Start Value - 1) x 100 to get percent.

For folks adding or removing money between 1/1 and current date it's a little more tricky.

This is tracked in a spreadsheet I update weekly (or monthly) to review my allocation and distributions paid out year to date. So it's easy for me to give YTD performance.

 

[target2019]

2 ways to calculate performance:

($now + $rem)/($start + $added)

($now - $start - $added)/$start

Someone posted that earlier. Not sure about the second formula.

I watch over a brokerage of stocks and bond funds for in-laws. Approximately 25% bonds:

Current Yield 3.91% (Wellington (VWENX) 2.78%)

Performance Gain YTD 2.96% (Wellington (VWENX) -3.01%)

That is calculated through Mar 2, so there are a couple of extra "gooder" days thrown in.

 

[LOL!]

Performance of
VWENX (Wellington) through 2/29/2016 is -3.01%
Through yesterday: -1.62%
Through today: -1.18%

 

[NW-Bound]

With short intervals like a year and small withdrawals/deposits, simple formulas should work well enough and one does not really need the XIRR to compute returns.

Indeed. As of market close yesterday, 3/1/2016, I was down only -1.5% YTD.

Today is not shabby. My stocks are up 0.85%, against the S&P of 0.41%. Foreign stocks, not just EM, do well. Mining sector jumps big. Still have to see what my MFs report.

So, my MF results are in. They are up 0.51%, also beating the S&P due to international stocks again. It's about time. Altogether when combined with 33% cash and 6% bond, portfolio up 0.48% today, vs Wellington at 0.44%.

 

[LOL!]

...vs Wellington at 0.44%.

But Wellington is now -1.18% YTD through March 2 and -1.62% through yesterday March 1.

 

[target2019]

=GOOGLEFINANCE("VWENX", "returnytd")/100

-3.01% just calculated at 9:36PM 3/2/2016

 

[pb4uski]

The only thing I will agree upon is to use the XIRR() algorithm with date range for 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2016. Even earlier in the year than 12/31, one needs to use 12/31/2016 for the end date or one might get an "annualized" return. That is, if you are up 10% in January, it might give 120% without the 12/31 end date.

This algorithm in available in spreadsheets, Quicken, and MS Money. It is also what fund companies use.

2 ways to calculate performance:

($now + $rem)/($start + $added)

($now - $start - $added)/$start

...

I favor the simpler formulas over the XIRR. While I concede the XIRR is theoretically preferable, for this use it is not practical. For one, my guess is that half or more of the people here would have trouble with the formula and the setup. Second and more importantly, it is a PITA to get the cash flows for the XIRR calculation, especially if you are in the accumulation phase or have multiple accounts.

Besides, who made LOL! king?

 

[LOL!]

I did not write that anybody had to agree with me.

OK, now let''s get back to the Tower of Babel that is everyone's YTD performance.

 

[LOL!]

=GOOGLEFINANCE("VWENX", "returnytd")/100

-3.01% just calculated at 9:36PM 3/2/2016

You can calculate the correct number by looking at the prices of VWENX directly. There have been no distributions so far in 2016, so it is pretty simple.

 

[NW-Bound]

But Wellington is now -1.18% YTD through March 2 and -1.62% through yesterday March 1.

That's YTD. I was talking about just daily movement.

I like to look at daily fluctuations and compare mine to the index and some other benchmarks to discern any trend.

 

[LOL!]

Ah, so you were.

 

[Viking]

2 ways to calculate performance:

($now + $rem)/($start + $added)

($now - $start - $added)/$start

Someone posted that earlier. Not sure about the second formula.

I watch over a brokerage of stocks and bond funds for in-laws. Approximately 25% bonds:

Current Yield 3.91% (Wellington (VWENX) 2.78%)

Performance Gain YTD 2.96% (Wellington (VWENX) -3.01%)

That is calculated through Mar 2, so there are a couple of extra "gooder" days thrown in.

I've redone my calcs using the first formula, and have added cash reserves into the portfolio balances at Dec 31 and today. I have not included balances in operating accounts.

So as of today the portfolio return is : -.07%

Portfolio:
5.6 cash
48.9 fixed income (bonds and preferreds)
45.5 stocks and REITs

Between Jan 8 and Feb 19 I rebalanced from a target of 40% bonds and 60% stocks. I missed a couple of down market days while sitting on cash. I don't anticipate any major adjustments to the AA now. I'm holding my age in cash+fixed income.

I no longer make additions to the portfolio, I retired July 31/2014 and am withdrawing from the portfolio.

 

[Fedup]

On my husband's account, Up just 1%, 80/20, invested starting Feb, when I finally decided to stay put, not moving to Vanguard. My own account I don't have a clue because I moved my 401k to Vanguard very recently.


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[Running_Man]

+2.3% as of Feb 29th EOD

 

[target2019]

You can calculate the correct number by looking at the prices of VWENX directly. There have been no distributions so far in 2016, so it is pretty simple.

That sounds like more accounting work. I only know what the Google tells me. Eventually I'll find a way to verify the benchmark. It's all in a watch spreadsheet and I do nothing, just take a peek.

 

[simple girl]

So, my MF results are in. They are up 0.51%, also beating the S&P due to international stocks again. It's about time. Altogether when combined with 33% cash and 6% bond, portfolio up 0.48% today, vs Wellington at 0.44%.

I'm confused by this. My international stock funds are all still down YTD.

 

[shotgunner]

I am down by -3.13% since 1/1/16.