2017 YTD investment performance thread

[Alan]

XIRR 2.27% through April 1st

AA 46/54/0

 

[Rickt]

5.15% thru March 31, 2017 as per personalcapital.com across all accounts
(53%-domestic/25%-international/20% Bonds/2% cash)

 

[target2019]

A bit early for end of Feb 2017. Will have to do:

YTD Wghtd Perf - 3.57%

Port Total YTD - 8.13%

Above was for YTD February.

YTD end of March 2017:

3.73% - YTD Wghtd Perf for Equity/Fixed/Cash (55/40/5)

7.75% - Port Total YTD

 

[LOL!]

4.63% YTD based on XIRR of beginning balance, withdrawals, cash dividends and ending balance using a 12/31/2017 date. AA of 65/35/5.

I have been rebalancing more often than normal into the rally to keep cash up giving upcoming wedding costs later this year.

I really like that 105% allocation total. So you borrow 5% and invest it? What interest rate do you pay?

 

[LOL!]

YTD (March 31, 2017) returns for a collection of 'close-to' 60/40 funds (from Morningstar.com):

4.35% VSMGX Vg LifeStrategy Moderate Growth (60/40)
4.10% VTWNX Vg Target Retirement 2020 (57/43)
3.82% VBIAX Vg Balanced Index (60/40)
3.84% DGSIX DFA Global 60/40 I
3.45% VWENX Vg Wellington (66/34)
4.59% VTTVX Vg Target Retirement 2025 (65/35)

 

[pb4uski]

I really like that 105% allocation total. So you borrow 5% and invest it? What interest rate do you pay?

Oops.... make that 60/35/5.

Actually, if I grossed it up for my mortgage and car loan, both of which are marginally invested, I would be 65/37/6... pretty close to my typo. Mortgage is 3.375% and car loan is 1.9%.

 

[DEC-1982]

YTD: 5.2%

YTD out-performance (against 60/40 benchmark) due to healthcare tilt.

 

[redduck]

Using moneychimp.com to do the calculations, my dividend portfolio is up 3.01%. I am using the dividend portfolio (which consists of stocks that have a very high/high safety ranking by Value Line) as a component of my bond allocation.

 

[CardsFan]

YTD 4.4%, after correcting for spending (60/30/10)

 

[RetiredGypsy]

5.59% now.

 

[supernova72]

4.73% as of 3/31 in Megacorp 401K (keeping it there for now). AA is 70/30. I'll take it!!

 

[Happyras]

According to personal capital, our allocation is 47.5 US stock/16.5 Int Stock/22.42 US Bond/7.4 Int Bonds/2.5% cash (cash in MF)/3.7% Alt

Our performance YTD at 3.7% is 65% of the S&P of 5.5%, better if compared to Dow at 4.6%. This is highly correlated to our equity allocation.

I am certain our under performance was primarily due to higher bond allocation earlier in the quarter Where we were performing to 58% of the S&P with more of a 60/37/3 allocation.

We are very close to the efficient frontier risk for our allocation within 0.1% of performance, and 0.2% of the risk. I did this intentionally through some recent rebalancing.

I am curious how some folks like us in retirement, are getting a higher performance. What traditional measure of risk? Not just the performance but how do their allocations approach the efficient frontier?

 

[LOL!]

[…] Our performance YTD at 3.7%
[…]
I am curious how some folks like us in retirement, are getting a higher performance. What traditional measure of risk? Not just the performance but how do their allocations approach the efficient frontier?

If you look inside the funds I listed this morning in this thread, then you can see that higher allocations to foreign equities helped and lower allocations to US small cap value helped, too. Here is a chart to show that:

Also "efficient frontier" does not mean "best return." Personal Capital touts a small-cap value overweight, but SCV did great in Nov-Dec 2016 and has taken a breather so far in 2017.

Bond funds have done relatively well: Despite FFR hikes in December and March, bond funds are up 1% for the quarter and on track for a very typical one-year return of 4%.

Big question though: Is it time to rebalance out of foreign into US small-cap value?

 

[OldShooter]

I have taken a rubber-meets-the-road approach to performance lately, setting up specific $100K equity tranches to test various portfolios:

• Couch Potato; 2/3 total US market, 1/3 total Int'l: 6.4%
• Schwab "Intelligent Portfolios" 5.7%
• DFA 50/50 USA/Int'l with a slight emerging market tilt: 6.2% net of 1Q 12.5bp fee

ACWI All Cap World Index (Large+Mid+Small+Micro Cap) Total Return: 6.82%

That stock picking doesn't work is very old statistical news. So I don't do it. Sad to say it took me almost 40 years of investing to finally understand that nobody in the investment business knows anything useful.

 

[LOL!]

@OldShooter, that's a nice experiment. I predict your 100% equity ploys will create something like a Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. Just worry about skating to where the puck was.

So instead of stock picking, what about asset class picking? Or at least predicting the future near-term performance of asset classes?

 

[athena53]

UBS up 4.7%, Fidelity 4.5%. Both heavy on stocks. I have a mostly-bond portfolio of $56k at Edward Jones that's barely moved but that's to be expected.

 

[OldShooter]

@OldShooter, that's a nice experiment. I predict your 100% equity ploys will create something like a Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. Just worry about skating to where the puck was.

Oh, it's not about that at all. All of the allocations are essentially the same. The test is whether the extra costs at Schwab or at a DFA advisor can beat the couch potato portfolio, which costs me nothing to own. I'm deliberately not even bothering to rebalance it.

I am also using the couch potato portfolio as a benchmark for evaluating Morgan Stanley's performance for a nonprofit I am associated with. Over 8 calendar quarters 2015/16 the couch potato portfolio is up 8.6% and the MS "Wealth Manager" is up 2.8%. She doesn't know it but she is about to get fired.

So instead of stock picking, what about asset class picking? Or at least predicting the future near-term performance of asset classes?

It's really just another form of stock picking. By picking classes you are diversifying away individual stock risk and choosing sector risk over total market risk. IMO, though, "near term performance" is so dominated by noise that you are simply spinning one of those "Wheel of Fortune" machines that you see in Vegas. You will never know whether your results are from luck or skill. Over the long term, not considering any costs, you will probably get the market average but that long term is longer (due to the smaller sample size) than the long term it takes to get the total market return by just buying a total market fund. So you get to the same place by a longer road with more potholes. My 2c anyway.

I'm not even sure that portfolio tilt makes much sense, for a number of reasons.

 

[LOL!]

I agree that one cannot predict which asset class is going to do well next.

But your 3 selections do NOT have "All of the allocations are essentially the same."

Couch Potato; 2/3 total US market, 1/3 total Int'l: 6.4%
Schwab "Intelligent Portfolios" 5.7%
DFA 50/50 USA/Int'l with a slight emerging market tilt: 6.2% net of 1Q 12.5bp fee

I found this video series on "Managing Expectations" full of useful ideas when thinking about all these things:

 

[Happyras]

Also "efficient frontier" does not mean "best return." Personal Capital touts a small-cap value overweight, but SCV did great in Nov-Dec 2016 and has taken a breather so far in 2017.

Bond funds have done relatively well: Despite FFR hikes in December and March, bond funds are up 1% for the quarter and on track for a very typical one-year return of 4%.

Big question though: Is it time to rebalance out of foreign into US small-cap value?

I agree totally, best return is not the only factor, it is best return with lowest risk as measured against the equity/bond allocation. Being on the curve is about as close as you can get. Apparently you can not get higher return without more risk once you have a >20% allocation to stocks, but you can get higher risk with a lower return.

I see many are quoting returns on one portfolio, but not including all their accounts with bonds. Our return is showing the full spectrum blending all VG and Fido etc., weighted for risk for all "retirement" investments. If I included our small business it would be much higher. However our equity allocation to small cap is not disproportionate to the overall market unless we count that ownership. I believe we have some room to add to small cap, but mostly we are low on international, which means selling a bit more VWENX to buy more international equities some day soon.

 

[Fedup]

I have no bonds, mostly cash. I still don't understand bonds. So I'm like Warren Buffet, until I do, I won't invest in something I don't understand.
I just gave my returns on what Vanguard told me. Not sure how accurate that is. I wouldn't get too work up here.

 

[LOL!]

I believe we have some room to add to small cap, but mostly we are low on international, which means selling a bit more VWENX to buy more international equities some day soon.

And I am thinking of doing almost the opposite. Isn't investing fun?

 

[Happyras]

And I am thinking of doing almost the opposite. Isn't investing fun?

It is fun! Particularly if you do not have to rely on your investments to live well. I am only considering more small cap in light of the likely tax reform impact on small business (like ours or bigger) and since it is not quite enough for my model. International exposure is just light in our portfolio based on several so called investment models and advisers at VG, Personal Cap, and Fido.

I am carefully considering this tuning to get to a perfect efficient model for risk/return. Not trying to stock pick or sector forecast, per-say. Interestingly, our Fido account, which is all equities now is matching performance to the S&P or better, but these lagged earlier due to use of target date funds with bonds.

 

[OldShooter]

... But your 3 selections do NOT have "All of the allocations are essentially the same." ...

I guess that's in the eye of the beholder. They are close enough for me/I can eyeball the effect of differences. For example, the couch potato (CP) portfolio over the last 9 quarters has slightly outperformed the ACWI and slightly underperformd the Russell 3000. That's to be expected given its allocation and the better performance of US stocks in the period. I don't need to have exactly identical allocations to also see that's also why the CP very slightly outperformed the DFA portfolio over the period.

How do you know that economists have a sense of humor? ..... (wait for it!) ..... They use decimal points.

I found this video series on "Managing Expectations" full of useful ideas when thinking about all these things ...

I'm not sure I get your point. If you're saying that it takes a long time to separate the signal from the noise in stock prices (have you read Nate Silver's book?) you are obviously right. But I am comparing very similar portfolios with each other, so I believe that I can tease out a performance difference signal more quickly than 20 years. For example, the CP portfolio performance has monotonically diverged from the disastrous Morgan Stanley portfolio even as quarterly performance numbers have ranged from -6 % to +9%. I can't back it up with statistics but I think the fact they they are 6% apart and continuing to diverge after 8 quarters is signal, not noise. YMMV, of course.

 

[robnplunder]

I am up 3.97%, trailing the market. My winners are DODFX, FSCHX, and FCNKX. The losers are my bond portfolio & short term trades. I am cautious with the trades given where the market is. If it corrects, I will be ready. Otherwise, I will end up the year with the usual 12% - 17% gain.

Moved my S&P 500 mutual fund to equivalent ETF to reduce capital gain tax. I've lost a fraction during the transaction - sold and bought at higher point.

 

[LOL!]

@OldShooter, I have read Silver's book.

I am sure you will be able to show the Morgan Stanley portfolio is the worst, but that is what you want to do. You won't be able to make a judgement about the others without a longer period, but no matter as you don't care about that.