Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Fun with volatility
Old 02-25-2018, 02:24 PM   #101
Recycles dryer sheets
wingfooted's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Oregon - Dry Side
Posts: 232
Fun with volatility

A0DC4430-B27C-4741-85E7-93AF254EEDF1.jpeg
__________________

wingfooted is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-27-2018, 05:58 PM   #102
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 6,121
Crossed back into positive territory last week. A long way to go to earn this year's MRDs however.
__________________

__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 06:09 PM   #103
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 722
EOM numbers, 0.7% YTD (Approximate). Approximately 67/33 allocation.

ETA: I now have no idea what the real number is. I have a huge and complicated) google spreadsheet on which I track equity prices across all of my accounts. I am having an issue with historical price quotes, including quotes from 12/29/2017 (which I use to generate YTD values on each holding). This is happening on some but not all holdings, which is why I didn't immediately see the error.

I started to look at this after seeing other people post and thinking that "my numbers really suck". Now I know why, because they aren't being calculated correctly.

A back of the envelope calculation using account values adjusted for some money transfers...around +1.8%. YTD.
copyright1997reloaded is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 06:27 PM   #104
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,300
End of month already. Time goes by fast.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
At end of January YTD: 5.79%. It was close to 8% last Friday, before the big drop...
On market close of 2/28, YTD result is 2.06%.

Just two days ago, it was a lot higher at 4.7%. I "lost" one year of living expenses in two trading days. Isn't volatility wonderful?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 06:31 PM   #105
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,300
Quote:
Originally Posted by wingfooted View Post
Are we back to despair yet?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 06:31 PM   #106
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
sengsational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,657
I have to wait until 8:30pm or so for my 401K provider to refresh to today's close. I skipped January due to being out of town. It was looking bright on 1/23, the last time I looked. I think someone said there was a bump after that, though
sengsational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 07:09 PM   #107
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 2,327
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
End of month already. Time goes by fast.



On market close of 2/28, YTD result is 2.06%.

Just two days ago, it was a lot higher at 4.7%. I "lost" one year of living expenses in two trading days. Isn't volatility wonderful?
Hey you are on pace for 12% yearly....
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 07:59 PM   #108
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,300
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
Hey you are on pace for 12% yearly....
Or one can look at it this way.

End of Jan: 5.79%. End of Feb: 2.06%. That's -3.73%/month.

10 more months in the year. So, -37.3% left to go?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 08:09 PM   #109
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,366
Quote:
Originally Posted by sengsational View Post
I have to wait until 8:30pm or so for my 401K provider to refresh to today's close. I skipped January due to being out of town. It was looking bright on 1/23, the last time I looked. I think someone said there was a bump after that, though
Wish my 401(k) providers could add it up by then. I usually need to wait til next morning to get previous day's end total.
target2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 08:25 PM   #110
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 2,327
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Or one can look at it this way.

End of Jan: 5.79%. End of Feb: 2.06%. That's -3.73%/month.

10 more months in the year. So, -37.3% left to go?
Glass half full... Your options strategies will prevail.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 08:45 PM   #111
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 1,494
+1.95 ytd, 100% equities. At one point I was up over 7% and then took a 9% elevator ride down, only to rebound up to about +4% and to then finally settle at 1.95%. One things for certain, volatility is here and interest rates are on the rise. That easy money addiction is gonna have to be waned.

Been a while since I've seen volatility like this. Well I think since 2016. Dow just snapped the longest monthly winning streak since 1958. If anyone here was invested during that bull, and this bull, I would like some adoption papers
__________________
AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 99/0/1% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 50/25/25% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): 50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 10:08 PM   #112
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
sengsational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,657
Wow, a lot of positive numbers for the year. I'm not in the plus column....I'm at -0.6% for the year. Dropped a couple three percent since I looked in late January
sengsational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 10:36 PM   #113
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 274
Looks like Iím just a .1 lower for the year compared to 12/31. If I hadnít been paying attention And all the hoopla for 3-4 weeks I could live with that. Guess I can now too.
__________________
Wisdom starts with wonder
KCGeezer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 11:17 PM   #114
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
robnplunder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,194
Barely up at 0.19%. Thanks God that Feb is over. Hope to see a better month ahead.
__________________
Pura Vida
robnplunder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2018, 12:53 AM   #115
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 9,275
YTD (February 28, 2018) returns for a collection of 'close-to' 60/40 funds (from Morningstar.com):

0.00% VSMGX Vg LifeStrategy Moderate Growth (60/40)
-.06% VTWNX Vg Target Retirement 2020 (55/45)
0.06% VBIAX Vg Balanced Index (60/40), no foreign
-.22% DGSIX DFA Global 60/40 I, small-cap & value tilted
-.79% VWENX Vg Wellington (66/34)
0.05% VTTVX Vg Target Retirement 2025 (63/37)
0.71% VGSTX Vg STAR (63/37)

Some notable YTD losers
-1.68% VWIAX Vg Wellesley (38/62)
-2.10% VBTLX Vg Total US Bond Index
-2.86% VSIAX Vg Small-cap value index
-11.5% VGSLX Vg REIT Index
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2018, 01:25 AM   #116
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,300
Given that total bond (VBTLX) is down -2.10%, and S&P is up +1.81%, a 60/40 mix of the two should give a YTD return of 0.25%.

By the way, BND (Vanguard Total Bond ETF) is down -2.26%, including the dividend on 2/1/18. There's a small mistrack compared to VBTLX above.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2018, 01:38 AM   #117
Recycles dryer sheets
Happyras's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Redmond
Posts: 251
Quote:
Originally Posted by sengsational View Post
Wow, a lot of positive numbers for the year. I'm not in the plus column....I'm at -0.6% for the year. Dropped a couple three percent since I looked in late January
I am with you, running -0.64% ytd. All the best models I track have similar performance for the same allocations. Paul Merriman's picks (moderate), Bogleheads 3 fund and 4 fund etc.

I am always amazed so many do better with only 60 to 70% equities......than these index fund models with similar allocations.

As pointed out my Wellington and Wellesley funds pull all the stars down.
Happyras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2018, 01:51 AM   #118
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,300
When you do not index, anything is possible, outsize gains as well as huge losses.

If you look through the thread, earlier a poster did perhaps 100% Boeing. It's 22% up YTD. And that's on top of huge gain of near 90% last year.

Darn, if I doubled my money like that, I would head to Seattle to buy meself that waterfront home I wanted all my life.

I am a lot more diversified, but with a bit of overweight in semiconductors. And I worked hard in looking for opportunities to write covered call options, as well as buying the dip earlier in Feb. All that work to get meself 2.06% YTD. Yes, I am running a bit more than 70% stock right now.

Compared to negative numbers, my 2.06% YTD is not too shabby. The problem is I may give it all up tomorrow too.

Is the market an interesting game or not? I think it's more like a chess game than Las Vegas.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2018, 02:05 AM   #119
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,300
The covered call options got me 0.56% YTD (counted in the 2.06% YTD total).

If I could continue at this rate, the covered call writing would bring 3.4% for the year. That would be awfully good, as my WR is only 2.5% (unless I splurge on something big, which is not likely).

Don't know if I will succeed, but I am tryin'...
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2018, 02:37 AM   #120
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Glasgow, UK
Posts: 58
(UK poster here.). Our FTSE100 is down 6% on the year, having recovered about four points from early February. I do have some international exposure and, excluding new savings, am down 2.3%. Including the new inputs, I’m down just 1.3% and I’m content with that.

DW and me are retiring at the end of April when we will collect a considerable amount of tax free cash from employers pension schemes - so I’m happy to see markets stay flat for a few months so that I can invest this cash at cheaper prices.
__________________

poppydog is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
2018, ytd


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
2017 YTD investment performance thread robnplunder FIRE and Money 706 01-09-2018 12:26 AM
2016 YTD investment performance thread robnplunder FIRE and Money 864 02-01-2017 09:45 AM
2015 YTD investment performance thread robnplunder FIRE and Money 689 01-21-2016 07:28 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:48 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.