2018 YTD investment performance thread

[wingfooted]

Fun with volatility

 

[Brat]

Crossed back into positive territory last week. A long way to go to earn this year's MRDs however.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

EOM numbers, [-]0.7% YTD (Approximate).[/-] Approximately 67/33 allocation.

ETA: I now have no idea what the real number is. I have a huge and complicated) google spreadsheet on which I track equity prices across all of my accounts. I am having an issue with historical price quotes, including quotes from 12/29/2017 (which I use to generate YTD values on each holding). This is happening on some but not all holdings, which is why I didn't immediately see the error.

I started to look at this after seeing other people post and thinking that "my numbers really suck". Now I know why, because they aren't being calculated correctly.

A back of the envelope calculation using account values adjusted for some money transfers...around +1.8%. YTD.

 

[NW-Bound]

End of month already. Time goes by fast.

At end of January YTD: 5.79%. It was close to 8% last Friday, before the big drop...

On market close of 2/28, YTD result is 2.06%.

Just two days ago, it was a lot higher at 4.7%. I "lost" one year of living expenses in two trading days. Isn't volatility wonderful?

 

[NW-Bound]

View attachment 27895

Are we back to despair yet?

 

[sengsational]

I have to wait until 8:30pm or so for my 401K provider to refresh to today's close. I skipped January due to being out of town. It was looking bright on 1/23, the last time I looked. I think someone said there was a bump after that, though

 

[Dtail]

End of month already. Time goes by fast.



On market close of 2/28, YTD result is 2.06%.

Just two days ago, it was a lot higher at 4.7%. I "lost" one year of living expenses in two trading days. Isn't volatility wonderful?

Hey you are on pace for 12% yearly....

 

[NW-Bound]

Hey you are on pace for 12% yearly....

Or one can look at it this way.

End of Jan: 5.79%. End of Feb: 2.06%. That's -3.73%/month.

10 more months in the year. So, -37.3% left to go?

 

[target2019]

I have to wait until 8:30pm or so for my 401K provider to refresh to today's close. I skipped January due to being out of town. It was looking bright on 1/23, the last time I looked. I think someone said there was a bump after that, though

Wish my 401(k) providers could add it up by then. I usually need to wait til next morning to get previous day's end total.

 

[Dtail]

Or one can look at it this way.

End of Jan: 5.79%. End of Feb: 2.06%. That's -3.73%/month.

10 more months in the year. So, -37.3% left to go?

Glass half full... Your options strategies will prevail.

 

[kgtest]

+1.95 ytd, 100% equities. At one point I was up over 7% and then took a 9% elevator ride down, only to rebound up to about +4% and to then finally settle at 1.95%. One things for certain, volatility is here and interest rates are on the rise. That easy money addiction is gonna have to be waned.

Been a while since I've seen volatility like this. Well I think since 2016. Dow just snapped the longest monthly winning streak since 1958. If anyone here was invested during that bull, and this bull, I would like some adoption papers

 

[sengsational]

Wow, a lot of positive numbers for the year. I'm not in the plus column....I'm at -0.6% for the year. Dropped a couple three percent since I looked in late January

 

[KCGeezer]

Looks like I’m just a .1 lower for the year compared to 12/31. If I hadn’t been paying attention And all the hoopla for 3-4 weeks I could live with that. Guess I can now too.

 

[robnplunder]

Barely up at 0.19%. Thanks God that Feb is over. Hope to see a better month ahead.

 

[LOL!]

YTD (February 28, 2018) returns for a collection of 'close-to' 60/40 funds (from Morningstar.com):

0.00% VSMGX Vg LifeStrategy Moderate Growth (60/40)
-.06% VTWNX Vg Target Retirement 2020 (55/45)
0.06% VBIAX Vg Balanced Index (60/40), no foreign
-.22% DGSIX DFA Global 60/40 I, small-cap & value tilted
-.79% VWENX Vg Wellington (66/34)
0.05% VTTVX Vg Target Retirement 2025 (63/37)
0.71% VGSTX Vg STAR (63/37)

Some notable YTD losers
-1.68% VWIAX Vg Wellesley (38/62)
-2.10% VBTLX Vg Total US Bond Index
-2.86% VSIAX Vg Small-cap value index
-11.5% VGSLX Vg REIT Index

 

[NW-Bound]

Given that total bond (VBTLX) is down -2.10%, and S&P is up +1.81%, a 60/40 mix of the two should give a YTD return of 0.25%.

By the way, BND (Vanguard Total Bond ETF) is down -2.26%, including the dividend on 2/1/18. There's a small mistrack compared to VBTLX above.

 

[Happyras]

Wow, a lot of positive numbers for the year. I'm not in the plus column....I'm at -0.6% for the year. Dropped a couple three percent since I looked in late January

I am with you, running -0.64% ytd. All the best models I track have similar performance for the same allocations. Paul Merriman's picks (moderate), Bogleheads 3 fund and 4 fund etc.

I am always amazed so many do better with only 60 to 70% equities......than these index fund models with similar allocations.

As pointed out my Wellington and Wellesley funds pull all the stars down.

 

[NW-Bound]

When you do not index, anything is possible, outsize gains as well as huge losses.

If you look through the thread, earlier a poster did perhaps 100% Boeing. It's 22% up YTD. And that's on top of huge gain of near 90% last year.

Darn, if I doubled my money like that, I would head to Seattle to buy meself that waterfront home I wanted all my life.

I am a lot more diversified, but with a bit of overweight in semiconductors. And I worked hard in looking for opportunities to write covered call options, as well as buying the dip earlier in Feb. All that work to get meself 2.06% YTD. Yes, I am running a bit more than 70% stock right now.

Compared to negative numbers, my 2.06% YTD is not too shabby. The problem is I may give it all up tomorrow too.

Is the market an interesting game or not? I think it's more like a chess game than Las Vegas.

 

[NW-Bound]

The covered call options got me 0.56% YTD (counted in the 2.06% YTD total).

If I could continue at this rate, the covered call writing would bring 3.4% for the year. That would be awfully good, as my WR is only 2.5% (unless I splurge on something big, which is not likely).

Don't know if I will succeed, but I am tryin'...

 

[poppydog]

(UK poster here.). Our FTSE100 is down 6% on the year, having recovered about four points from early February. I do have some international exposure and, excluding new savings, am down 2.3%. Including the new inputs, I’m down just 1.3% and I’m content with that.

DW and me are retiring at the end of April when we will collect a considerable amount of tax free cash from employers pension schemes - so I’m happy to see markets stay flat for a few months so that I can invest this cash at cheaper prices.

 

[Dtail]

Given that total bond (VBTLX) is down -2.10%, and S&P is up +1.81%, a 60/40 mix of the two should give a YTD return of 0.25%.

By the way, BND (Vanguard Total Bond ETF) is down -2.26%, including the dividend on 2/1/18. There's a small mistrack compared to VBTLX above.

Down 14 bps, which should make sense on a 50/50 portfolio.

 

[gcgang]

+0.06%. Whee?

 

[Islandtraveler]

Blended rate up 2.23% 80/20 I feel like a financial wizard .

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

When you do not index, anything is possible, outsize gains as well as huge losses.

If you look through the thread, earlier a poster did perhaps 100% Boeing. It's 22% up YTD. And that's on top of huge gain of near 90% last year.

Darn, if I doubled my money like that, I would head to Seattle to buy meself that waterfront home I wanted all my life.

I am a lot more diversified, but with a bit of overweight in semiconductors. And I worked hard in looking for opportunities to write covered call options, as well as buying the dip earlier in Feb. All that work to get meself 2.06% YTD. Yes, I am running a bit more than 70% stock right now.

Compared to negative numbers, my 2.06% YTD is not too shabby. The problem is I may give it all up tomorrow too.

Is the market an interesting game or not? I think it's more like a chess game than Las Vegas.

Ding ding ding. (+1). In my case I have about 30% of my assets in individual securities, which causes me to overweight certain sectors. Looking at my industry pivot, I was helped by Financials (+4.6%, some holdings: JPM, BAC, C, KBE, BCS), Technology (+5.7%, some holdings: AAPL, ADI, MSFT, CY, ...), Medical(+3.0%, some holdings: ABBV, ABT, EW, CAH, IBB,...). About 10% of my assets are in technology holdings in addition to those provided by broad market indexes (e.g. VTI), and about 6% overweight in Medical. I've been overweight in these areas for quite a while. I am also slightly overweight non USA holdings, with 74% of my non fixed holdings being USA based funds/companies.

As you say, this also elevates the downside risk profile, but interestingly enough I typically have a smaller beta on a daily basis due to having considerable cash/low duration fixed holdings.

Yes, the market is a very interesting game. One that I like to play.

 

[kgtest]

looks like 2.25% after all the accounts trued up. Not as good as the +7 I had earlier this month, but I'll ride the tide!