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Old 02-01-2019, 07:33 AM   #21
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All the above dancing emoticons do not bode well for future return.

I am glad I have many call options out to get some cash to cushion the fall to come.
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Old 02-01-2019, 07:36 AM   #22
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So far, so good. My primary retirement portfolio is up 7.61% in January. My benchmark is Vanguard's 2030 target date fund (VTHRX), which is up 5.97%.

Last year started out similarly but by year-end it wasn't quite as pleasant!
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Old 02-01-2019, 07:41 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
All the above dancing emoticons do not bode well for future return.

I am glad I have many call options out to get some cash to cushion the fall to come.

I went back and got rid of mine, in the hopes I don't jinx it. And, I don't think we're quite out of the woods, yet. January 2018 was a great month for me, as well. I think I finished the month up around 4%, although at one point during the month, I think I was up around 6% or more.


So, hopefully this isn't deja vu. I guess one nice difference is that, this time around, I hit my peak for the month on the last day, whereas in 2018, by the last day of January, things were already starting to pull back.
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Old 02-01-2019, 07:51 AM   #24
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.... I am not talking anyone into doing OMY, but one should realize that a low WR is needed if one is not to eat his seed corn.
I expect to occasionally have to eat seed corn... but I'll have plenty left even if I do need to eat seed corn occasionally. I didn't build up a store of seed corn to hoard it.

And as to financial gain, I take the long view. Since we retired 7 years ago we have 20% more seed corn than what we started with, and 30% if I include the value of our Florida condo that we bought with seed corn.
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Old 02-01-2019, 07:57 AM   #25
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I guess I was fortunate to be working part-time, and on-off too, for 9 years prior to full retirement. The income was enough to live on without withdrawing anything from the stash.

The work was interesting, and I could have gone on forever. I now have to create technical work for myself and spend money doing that instead of getting paid.

Can't be traveling all the time, ya know? It would become tedious, like work.
I have lots of other things to do when I’m not traveling. Busy playing with my new pellet grill and my new piano. Taking yoga classes again, resuming Dutch and starting to work on the fall travel plans. We’re supposed to be getting a new car. Need to get to work on that.....
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Old 02-01-2019, 08:12 AM   #26
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When we had the drop in December, I finally switched out a chunk of my Wellington for SP500 index. I've been thinking about it for a while as I felt I was being way too conservative given my situation, and needed to update the asset mix so when it dropped it seemed like the perfect time.
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Old 02-01-2019, 08:22 AM   #27
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1/31/2019 YTD = 5.44%. VG TR2025 benchmark = 5.41%. I noticed this morning that my entire portfolio is withing a couple of bucks from where it was on 1/1 last year including last year's spending.
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Old 02-01-2019, 08:48 AM   #28
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Old 02-01-2019, 09:33 AM   #29
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It's not January 31st...it's December 62nd. And that means I'm UP for 2018 (about one percent!).


Oh, you conventional calendar folks might prefer reporting on the last 31 days... Nice number: Up 5.8% for the year. And like NW, that's "all-in" (all accounts). I do a spend adjustment (estimating a level spend).
+1 Went from -3.45% as of December 31 to +1.22% as of December 62.
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Old 02-01-2019, 09:40 AM   #30
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Old 02-01-2019, 09:42 AM   #31
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...I've often mentioned how I prefer to monitor a 3 year average because it smooths out the roller coaster a bit. ...
I agree. I'm at about 6.4% for the 3 years 2016-2018. Not great, but not bad either. Pretty much spot on to what I expected.
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Old 02-01-2019, 10:12 AM   #32
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Up about 4% thus far, much better than -2.5% like 2018, but the year is young. Regardless of where we go in 2019, the long term is up.
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Old 02-01-2019, 10:49 AM   #33
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I went back and got rid of mine, in the hopes I don't jinx it. And, I don't think we're quite out of the woods, yet...
I dunno if that is enough. You will have to burn incense before the altar of the market god to apologize for your offense.

By the way, the Chinese are particularly superstitious. In almost every Chinese store, you will see a small altar with a statue of the so-called laughing Buddha. They believe that it brings them good luck. That symbolic fat and happy Buddha has little to do with Siddhartha Gautama, the founder of Buddhism in India in 500 BC.

The ascetic Siddhartha looked more like this.

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Old 02-01-2019, 11:00 AM   #34
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I am not Chinese nor superstitious, but in the past whenever I feel complacent or so sure of something, I overlook something else that jumps up and bites me in the behind.

And that goes beyond investing too.
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Old 02-01-2019, 11:03 AM   #35
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I don't want to jinx anything but I kind of feel like stocks have reached a permanently high plateau or something.
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Old 02-01-2019, 12:21 PM   #36
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I don't want to jinx anything but I kind of feel like stocks have reached a permanently high plateau or something.
NOW you did it! Get ready for a huge plunge!



As to the three year thing, I'd never done that. I have a "since retirement" section in my sheet, but not a moving 3 year. Until now.


Spend adjusted, I'm up 21.9% over the last 3 years ending December 31. It's still on the plus side even after accounting for inflation and ignoring spend. I could definitely live with more of what we've had since I retired (turns out it's just a few days over 5 years ago). Too bad gstillson just ruined it.
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Old 02-01-2019, 12:24 PM   #37
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Heck.... I dunno. as long as W2R doesn't post the "W" word we should be all set.
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Old 02-01-2019, 12:24 PM   #38
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Principal LCG up 9.87% as of today, and is the ONLY principal fund available out of maybe 20 funds in my 401K that is still up from 1 year ago (+3.5%). Today is a happy day !
-YTD is +9.87
-1 year average is +3.5%
-3 year average is 11.51% for this fund. No other Principal is above 9% in the 3 year average, so I must be where I need to be.
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Old 02-01-2019, 12:30 PM   #39
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Heck.... I dunno. as long as W2R doesn't post the "W" word we should be all set.
Beat me to it.
That's all that matters.
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Old 02-01-2019, 12:51 PM   #40
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December 2018
+2.88% Total Portfolio Value increase YTD

-3.72% YTD Performance, total pie weighted

50-45-05 (Stk-Bnd-Csh) AA

Analysis: Able to contribute 401(k) and Roths. That is why the total grew, rather than going negative for the year.
January 2019
  • +5.52% Total Portfolio Value increase YTD
  • +4.56% YTD Performance, total pie weighted
  • 50-45-05 (Stk-Bnd-Csh) AA
Partial retirement soon, spouse working.
Nice start to the year.
No telling where the market may wander.
Best wishes to all for the investing year.
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